日本和美國的債券收益率上升和債務水平可能是比特幣的好消息

Kobeissi信函週日表示，日本和美國的債券收益率上升和債務水平對於比特幣BTC/USD來說可能是個好消息。

Rising bond yields and debt levels in Japan and the United States could be good news for Bitcoin (BTC/USD), according to The Kobeissi Letter's latest analysis on X (formerly Twitter).

根據Kobeissi Letter在X（以前是Twitter）的最新分析，日本和美國的債券收益率和債務水平上升可能是比特幣（BTC/USD）的好消息。

As capital markets commentator Kobeissi begins his post, he highlights the surge in Japan's 40-year government bond yield. From around 1.3% two years ago, the yield has climbed to 3.5%, while the benchmark 10-year yield is now hovering at 1.51%, its highest level in two months.

當Capital Markets評論員Kobeissi開始他的職位時，他強調了日本40年政府債券收益率的激增。從兩年前約1.3％起，收益率上升到3.5％，而基準10年收益率現在徘徊在1.51％，是兩個月內的最高水平。

This increase began as the Bank of Japan stopped buying bonds, leading to a larger bond supply in the market and higher yields. The Japanese government also holds $7.8 trillion of debt, making it the third most indebted government globally, following the U.S. and China. Furthermore, Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio recently exceeded 260% for the first time, the highest among developed economies.

這一增長始於日本銀行停止購買債券，從而導致市場上的債券供應量更大，收益率更高。日本政府還持有7.8萬億美元的債務，使其成為全球第三大政府，僅次於美國和中國。此外，日本的債務與GDP比率最近首次超過260％，是發達經濟體中最高的。

A similar situation is unfolding in the U.S., where long-dated treasury yields have been pushed to levels not seen since October 2023, exacerbated by the passage of a sweeping tax-cut bill. It's worth noting that, unlike the U.S., a significant portion of Japan's debt is held by domestic investors and entities, including the central bank.

在美國，類似的情況也正在發生，在該國的財政收益率已經被推到自2023年10月以來從未見過的水平，這加劇了一項詳盡的稅收稅收法案。值得注意的是，與美國不同，日本的很大一部分由包括中央銀行在內的國內投資者和實體持有。

Typically, higher bond returns may reduce the appeal of riskier assets, such as stocks, leading to lower valuations. Additionally, it can make debt financing more expensive, driving inflation higher.

通常，較高的債券回報可能會降低風險較高的資產的吸引力，例如股票，從而降低估值。此外，它可以使債務融資更加昂貴，並使通貨膨脹率更高。

"Bitcoin loves all of this," concludes The Kobeissi Letter, suggesting that the leading cryptocurrency's safe haven demand could be booming amid these economic trends.

“比特幣都喜歡所有這一切，” Kobeissi信件總結說，這表明，在這些經濟趨勢的情況下，領先的加密貨幣的避風港需求可能會蓬勃發展。

See Also: Bitcoin, Ethereum Rise, Dogecoin Dips After Trump Says He Will Delay 50% Tariffs On EU: Analyst Sees ‘Good’ Signs For BTC In The Coming Week

另請參閱：特朗普表示，比特幣，以太坊上升，狗狗幣在歐盟延遲50％的關稅：分析師在下週看到BTC的“好”跡象

As capital markets commentator Kobeissi points out, the yield on 40-year Japanese bonds has surged to 3.5%, up from 1.3% two years ago, while the 10-year yield has hit 1.51%, its highest in two months.

正如Capital Markets評論員Kobeissi指出的那樣，日本40年債券的收益率飆升至3.5％，高於兩年前的1.3％，而10年期收益率達到1.51％，在兩個月內最高。

This increase follows the Bank of Japan's decision to cease buying bonds, leading to a larger bond supply and higher yields. With $7.8 trillion in debt, Japan holds the third-largest government debt, following the U.S. and China, and the debt-to-GDP ratio has surpassed 260% for the first time, the highest among developed economies.

這一增長是在日本銀行決定停止購買債券的決定之後，導致債券供應量更大和收益率更高。日本以7.8萬億美元的債務持有，僅次於美國和中國，債務與GDP的比率首次超過260％，這是發達經濟體中最高的。

Moreover, long-dated U.S. treasury yields have reached levels not seen since October 2023, as the passage of a sweeping tax-cut bill has pushed yields higher.

此外，隨著盛大的稅收法案的通過提高了收益率更高，美國長期以來的美國財政收益率已經達到自2023年10月以來的水平。

It's important to highlight that, unlike the U.S., a substantial portion of Japan's debt is held by domestic investors and entities, including the central bank.

重要的是要強調，與美國不同，日本的很大一部分由包括中央銀行在內的國內投資者和實體持有。

In contrast, higher bond returns might lower the attractiveness of riskier assets like stocks, resulting in lower valuations and more expensive debt financing, which could contribute to inflation.

相比之下，較高的債券回報可能會降低股票等風險較高的資產的吸引力，從而降低估值和更昂貴的債務融資，這可能導致通貨膨脹。

"Bitcoin loves all of this," Kobeissi concludes, implying that the cryptocurrency's safe haven demand could be booming amid these trends.

Kobeissi總結說：“比特幣都喜歡所有這些。”這意味著加密貨幣的避風港需求可能會在這些趨勢中蓬勃發展。