日本和美国的债券收益率上升和债务水平可能是比特币的好消息

Kobeissi信函周日表示，日本和美国的债券收益率上升和债务水平对于比特币BTC/USD来说可能是个好消息。

Rising bond yields and debt levels in Japan and the United States could be good news for Bitcoin (BTC/USD), according to The Kobeissi Letter's latest analysis on X (formerly Twitter).

根据Kobeissi Letter在X（以前是Twitter）的最新分析，日本和美国的债券收益率和债务水平上升可能是比特币（BTC/USD）的好消息。

As capital markets commentator Kobeissi begins his post, he highlights the surge in Japan's 40-year government bond yield. From around 1.3% two years ago, the yield has climbed to 3.5%, while the benchmark 10-year yield is now hovering at 1.51%, its highest level in two months.

当Capital Markets评论员Kobeissi开始他的职位时，他强调了日本40年政府债券收益率的激增。从两年前约1.3％起，收益率上升到3.5％，而基准10年收益率现在徘徊在1.51％，是两个月内的最高水平。

This increase began as the Bank of Japan stopped buying bonds, leading to a larger bond supply in the market and higher yields. The Japanese government also holds $7.8 trillion of debt, making it the third most indebted government globally, following the U.S. and China. Furthermore, Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio recently exceeded 260% for the first time, the highest among developed economies.

这一增长始于日本银行停止购买债券，从而导致市场上的债券供应量更大，收益率更高。日本政府还持有7.8万亿美元的债务，使其成为全球第三大政府，仅次于美国和中国。此外，日本的债务与GDP比率最近首次超过260％，是发达经济体中最高的。

A similar situation is unfolding in the U.S., where long-dated treasury yields have been pushed to levels not seen since October 2023, exacerbated by the passage of a sweeping tax-cut bill. It's worth noting that, unlike the U.S., a significant portion of Japan's debt is held by domestic investors and entities, including the central bank.

在美国，类似的情况也正在发生，在该国的财政收益率已经被推到自2023年10月以来从未见过的水平，这加剧了一项详尽的税收税收法案。值得注意的是，与美国不同，日本的很大一部分由包括中央银行在内的国内投资者和实体持有。

Typically, higher bond returns may reduce the appeal of riskier assets, such as stocks, leading to lower valuations. Additionally, it can make debt financing more expensive, driving inflation higher.

通常，较高的债券回报可能会降低风险较高的资产的吸引力，例如股票，从而降低估值。此外，它可以使债务融资更加昂贵，并使通货膨胀率更高。

"Bitcoin loves all of this," concludes The Kobeissi Letter, suggesting that the leading cryptocurrency's safe haven demand could be booming amid these economic trends.

“比特币都喜欢所有这一切，” Kobeissi信件总结说，这表明，在这些经济趋势的情况下，领先的加密货币的避风港需求可能会蓬勃发展。

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As capital markets commentator Kobeissi points out, the yield on 40-year Japanese bonds has surged to 3.5%, up from 1.3% two years ago, while the 10-year yield has hit 1.51%, its highest in two months.

正如Capital Markets评论员Kobeissi指出的那样，日本40年债券的收益率飙升至3.5％，高于两年前的1.3％，而10年期收益率达到1.51％，在两个月内最高。

This increase follows the Bank of Japan's decision to cease buying bonds, leading to a larger bond supply and higher yields. With $7.8 trillion in debt, Japan holds the third-largest government debt, following the U.S. and China, and the debt-to-GDP ratio has surpassed 260% for the first time, the highest among developed economies.

这一增长是在日本银行决定停止购买债券的决定之后，导致债券供应量更大和收益率更高。日本以7.8万亿美元的债务持有，仅次于美国和中国，债务与GDP的比率首次超过260％，这是发达经济体中最高的。

Moreover, long-dated U.S. treasury yields have reached levels not seen since October 2023, as the passage of a sweeping tax-cut bill has pushed yields higher.

此外，随着盛大的税收法案的通过提高了收益率更高，美国长期以来的美国财政收益率已经达到自2023年10月以来的水平。

It's important to highlight that, unlike the U.S., a substantial portion of Japan's debt is held by domestic investors and entities, including the central bank.

重要的是要强调，与美国不同，日本的很大一部分由包括中央银行在内的国内投资者和实体持有。

In contrast, higher bond returns might lower the attractiveness of riskier assets like stocks, resulting in lower valuations and more expensive debt financing, which could contribute to inflation.

相比之下，较高的债券回报可能会降低股票等风险较高的资产的吸引力，从而降低估值和更昂贵的债务融资，这可能导致通货膨胀。

"Bitcoin loves all of this," Kobeissi concludes, implying that the cryptocurrency's safe haven demand could be booming amid these trends.

Kobeissi总结说：“比特币都喜欢所有这些。”这意味着加密货币的避风港需求可能会在这些趋势中蓬勃发展。