RFK Jr. 的競選團隊面臨 81% 的退出幾率

根據 Polymarket 賠率，2024 年獨立總統候選人小羅伯特甘迺迪 (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) 退出競選的機率為 81%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is an independent candidate running for president in 2024. According to Polymarket odds, he has an 81% chance of dropping out of the race. This comes after his running mate, Nicole Shanahan, hinted that their campaign may join forces with former President Donald Trump.

小羅伯特甘迺迪是 2024 年總統競選的獨立候選人。此前，他的競選搭檔妮可·沙納漢暗示，他們的競選活動可能會與前總統唐納德·川普聯手。

On Tuesday, the odds of Kennedy dropping out reached their highest point yet. The same day, Shanahan said in an interview that Kennedy is thinking about leaving the 2024 election to “join forces” with Trump, the Republican nominee. However, she also noted that Kennedy is considering staying in the race to “establish ourselves” for a possible 2028 bid. Following the news, prediction market bettors pushed Kennedy’s odds of exiting the race to 81%.

週二，甘迺迪退出的可能性達到了迄今為止的最高點。同一天，沙納漢受訪時表示，甘迺迪正在考慮退出2024年大選，與共和黨候選人川普「聯手」。不過，她也指出，甘迺迪正在考慮繼續參加競選，為 2028 年可能的競選「確立自己的地位」。消息傳出後，預測市場投注者將甘迺迪退出競選的幾率推高至 81%。

At 2:22 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, Kennedy’s odds of bowing out stood at 73% on Polymarket. Unlike the Kamala Harris campaign, the Kennedy campaign has garnered a lot of support from the crypto community, due to his favorable stance on the matter. Over the last year, he has attended two Bitcoin conferences, championing bitcoin and speaking out against central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).

美國東部時間週二下午 2:22，Polymarket 上甘迺迪退出的可能性為 73%。與卡馬拉·哈里斯競選活動不同，甘迺迪競選活動因其在此事上的有利立場而獲得了加密貨幣社區的大量支持。去年，他參加了兩次比特幣會議，支持比特幣並公開反對央行數位貨幣（CBDC）。

“There’s two options that we’re looking at and one is staying in, forming that new party, but we run the risk of a Kamala Harris and Walz presidency because we draw votes from Trump, or we draw somehow more votes from Trump,” Kennedy’s running mate Shanahan explained during her appearance on the Impact Theory podcast.

「我們正在考慮兩種選擇，一種是留下來，組成新政黨，但我們面臨著卡馬拉·哈里斯和沃爾茲擔任總統的風險，因為我們從川普那裡獲得了選票，或者以某種方式從川普那裡獲得了更多選票，」甘迺迪的競選搭檔沙納漢在影響理論播客上作了解釋。

As of Aug. 20, Polymarket bettors still have Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump neck and neck in the race for the presidency with a 49% chance each. Meanwhile, Kennedy’s odds remain in the negative, with a -1% chance of winning the 2024 general election. By 2:53 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, Kennedy’s odds of leaving the race rose to a significant 81% chance.

截至 8 月 20 日，Polymarket 投注者認為，副總統卡瑪拉·哈里斯和前總統川普在總統大選中仍不相上下，各有 49% 的機會。與此同時，甘迺迪贏得 2024 年大選的幾率仍然為負，為 -1%。到週二美國東部時間下午 2:53，甘迺迪退出競選的幾率上升至 81%。

What are your thoughts on Kennedy considering dropping out of the election? Share your thoughts and insights on the matter in the comments section below.

您對甘迺迪考慮退出選舉有何看法？在下面的評論部分分享您對此事的想法和見解。