Based on Polymarket odds, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a 2024 independent presidential candidate, has a 81% probability of exiting the race
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is an independent candidate running for president in 2024. According to Polymarket odds, he has an 81% chance of dropping out of the race. This comes after his running mate, Nicole Shanahan, hinted that their campaign may join forces with former President Donald Trump.
On Tuesday, the odds of Kennedy dropping out reached their highest point yet. The same day, Shanahan said in an interview that Kennedy is thinking about leaving the 2024 election to “join forces” with Trump, the Republican nominee. However, she also noted that Kennedy is considering staying in the race to “establish ourselves” for a possible 2028 bid. Following the news, prediction market bettors pushed Kennedy’s odds of exiting the race to 81%.
At 2:22 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, Kennedy’s odds of bowing out stood at 73% on Polymarket. Unlike the Kamala Harris campaign, the Kennedy campaign has garnered a lot of support from the crypto community, due to his favorable stance on the matter. Over the last year, he has attended two Bitcoin conferences, championing bitcoin and speaking out against central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).
“There’s two options that we’re looking at and one is staying in, forming that new party, but we run the risk of a Kamala Harris and Walz presidency because we draw votes from Trump, or we draw somehow more votes from Trump,” Kennedy’s running mate Shanahan explained during her appearance on the Impact Theory podcast.
As of Aug. 20, Polymarket bettors still have Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump neck and neck in the race for the presidency with a 49% chance each. Meanwhile, Kennedy’s odds remain in the negative, with a -1% chance of winning the 2024 general election. By 2:53 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, Kennedy’s odds of leaving the race rose to a significant 81% chance.
What are your thoughts on Kennedy considering dropping out of the election? Share your thoughts and insights on the matter in the comments section below.
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