RFK Jr. 的竞选团队面临 81% 的退出几率

根据 Polymarket 赔率，2024 年独立总统候选人小罗伯特·F·肯尼迪 (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) 退出竞选的概率为 81%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is an independent candidate running for president in 2024. According to Polymarket odds, he has an 81% chance of dropping out of the race. This comes after his running mate, Nicole Shanahan, hinted that their campaign may join forces with former President Donald Trump.

小罗伯特·肯尼迪 (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) 是 2024 年总统竞选的独立候选人。根据 Polymarket 赔率，他有 81% 的机会退出竞选。此前，他的竞选搭档妮可·沙纳汉暗示，他们的竞选活动可能会与前总统唐纳德·特朗普联手。

On Tuesday, the odds of Kennedy dropping out reached their highest point yet. The same day, Shanahan said in an interview that Kennedy is thinking about leaving the 2024 election to “join forces” with Trump, the Republican nominee. However, she also noted that Kennedy is considering staying in the race to “establish ourselves” for a possible 2028 bid. Following the news, prediction market bettors pushed Kennedy’s odds of exiting the race to 81%.

周二，肯尼迪退出的可能性达到了迄今为​​止的最高点。同一天，沙纳汉在接受采访时表示，肯尼迪正在考虑退出2024年大选，与共和党候选人特朗普“联手”。不过，她也指出，肯尼迪正在考虑继续参加竞选，为 2028 年可能的竞选“确立自己的地位”。消息传出后，预测市场投注者将肯尼迪退出竞选的几率推高至 81%。

At 2:22 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, Kennedy’s odds of bowing out stood at 73% on Polymarket. Unlike the Kamala Harris campaign, the Kennedy campaign has garnered a lot of support from the crypto community, due to his favorable stance on the matter. Over the last year, he has attended two Bitcoin conferences, championing bitcoin and speaking out against central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).

美国东部时间周二下午 2:22，Polymarket 上肯尼迪退出的可能性为 73%。与卡马拉·哈里斯竞选活动不同，肯尼迪竞选活动因其在此事上的有利立场而获得了加密货币社区的大量支持。去年，他参加了两次比特币会议，支持比特币并公开反对央行数字货币（CBDC）。

“There’s two options that we’re looking at and one is staying in, forming that new party, but we run the risk of a Kamala Harris and Walz presidency because we draw votes from Trump, or we draw somehow more votes from Trump,” Kennedy’s running mate Shanahan explained during her appearance on the Impact Theory podcast.

“我们正在考虑两种选择，一种是留下来，组建新政党，但我们面临着卡马拉·哈里斯和沃尔兹担任总统的风险，因为我们从特朗普那里获得了选票，或者以某种方式从特朗普那里获得了更多选票，”肯尼迪的竞选伙伴沙纳汉在影响理论播客上作了解释。

As of Aug. 20, Polymarket bettors still have Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump neck and neck in the race for the presidency with a 49% chance each. Meanwhile, Kennedy’s odds remain in the negative, with a -1% chance of winning the 2024 general election. By 2:53 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, Kennedy’s odds of leaving the race rose to a significant 81% chance.

截至 8 月 20 日，Polymarket 投注者认为，副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯和前总统特朗普在总统大选中仍不相上下，各有 49% 的机会。与此同时，肯尼迪赢得 2024 年大选的几率仍然为负，为 -1%。到周二美国东部时间下午 2:53，肯尼迪退出竞选的可能性上升至 81%。

What are your thoughts on Kennedy considering dropping out of the election? Share your thoughts and insights on the matter in the comments section below.

您对肯尼迪考虑退出选举有何看法？在下面的评论部分分享您对此事的想法和见解。