美國監管機構發出拒絕以太坊現貨 ETF 的訊號，產業不太可能發起法律訴訟

美國監管機構不太可能批准以太坊 (ETH) 現貨 ETF，因為與比特幣相比，該資產的市值和機構興趣較低。彭博 ETF 分析師 Eric Balchunas 認為，由於潛在回報和所需資源有限，加密產業可能不會採取法律行動。

Ethereum Spot ETFs Face Uncertain Future as Regulators Signal Rejection

監管機構發出拒絕訊號，以太坊現貨 ETF 面臨不確定的未來

According to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, U.S. regulators are likely to reject Ethereum (ETH) spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This assessment contradicts Balchunas' previous optimism about Bitcoin spot ETFs prior to their January approval.

彭博 ETF 分析師 Eric Balchunas 表示，美國監管機構可能會拒絕以太坊 (ETH) 現貨交易所交易基金 (ETF)。這項評估與 Balchunas 在 1 月批准比特幣現貨 ETF 之前對比特幣現貨 ETF 的樂觀態度相矛盾。

Industry Unlikely to Wage Legal Battle

業界不太可能發動法律戰

Balchunas' analysis suggests that the crypto industry is unlikely to engage in a significant legal fight against the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) if it denies ETH spot ETF applications. This conclusion is based on the relatively small size of Ethereum futures ETFs, which hold only 4% of the assets held by Bitcoin futures ETFs.

Balchunas 的分析表明，如果美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 拒絕 ETH 現貨 ETF 申請，加密產業不太可能與美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 進行重大法律鬥爭。這項結論是基於以太坊期貨ETF規模相對較小，其持有的資產僅佔比特幣期貨ETF持有資產的4%。

Limited Institutional Appetite for Ethereum

機構對以太坊的興趣有限

The analyst cites the lack of investor interest in the ProShares Ether Strategy ETF, which launched approximately two years after its Bitcoin counterpart and currently holds significantly less assets under management (AUM). This disparity indicates that institutional investors may have less appetite for Ethereum compared to Bitcoin.

該分析師指出，投資者對 ProShares 以太策略 ETF 缺乏興趣，該 ETF 比比特幣同類產品晚約兩年推出，目前管理資產 (AUM) 大幅減少。這種差異表明，與比特幣相比，機構投資者對以太坊的興趣可能較小。

Industry Experts Corroborate Market Sentiment

產業專家證實市場情緒

Sponsors of major Bitcoin ETFs have expressed similar views, suggesting that institutional investors prioritize Bitcoin over Ethereum. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan stated that Ethereum ETFs may gain more traction if launched after Bitcoin ETFs, while Robert Mitchnick of BlackRock prioritized Bitcoin exposure among clients.

主要比特幣 ETF 的發起人也表達了類似的觀點，表明機構投資者優先考慮比特幣而不是以太坊。 Bitwise 首席資訊長Matt Hougan 表示，如果在比特幣ETF 之後推出，以太坊ETF 可能會獲得更多關注，而貝萊德(BlackRock) 的羅伯特·米奇尼克(Robert Mitchnick) 則優先考慮在客戶中投資比特幣。

Grayscale's Ambiguous Stance

灰階的曖昧立場

Ethereum proponents argue that comparing the performance of futures ETFs is inappropriate given their different launch timings. However, Balchunas counters that Grayscale, a major Bitcoin ETF provider, is unlikely to support legal action for an Ethereum ETF that is likely to have a smaller market share.

以太坊支持者認為，鑑於期貨 ETF 的推出時間不同，比較它們的表現是不合適的。然而，Balchunas 反駁說，主要的比特幣 ETF 提供商 Grayscale 不太可能支持對市場份額可能較小的以太坊 ETF 採取法律行動。

SEC's Stance on Spot ETFs

SEC 對現貨 ETF 的立場

Previously, the SEC opposed Bitcoin spot ETFs, citing concerns about market manipulation. However, a lawsuit by Grayscale prompted the SEC to reverse this stance, leading to the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs.

在此之前，美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 反對比特幣現貨 ETF，理由是擔心市場操縱。然而，灰階的訴訟促使 SEC 改變了這一立場，從而導致比特幣現貨 ETF 獲得批准。

Grayscale's Dilemma

灰階的困境

Ironically, the increased competition resulting from ETF approvals has led to outflows from Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), eroding its market share. Balchunas questions whether Grayscale would be willing to incur the legal expenses and risk further outflows for an Ethereum ETF with a potentially smaller market size.

諷刺的是，ETF 批准導致競爭加劇，導致灰階比特幣信託 (GBTC) 資金流出，侵蝕其市場份額。 Balchunas 質疑 Grayscale 是否願意為市場規模可能較小的以太坊 ETF 承擔法律費用並冒進一步資金外流的風險。

Conclusion

結論

The latest analysis from Bloomberg suggests that Ethereum spot ETFs are unlikely to gain regulatory approval in the near future. The crypto industry is unlikely to engage in a significant legal fight, and institutional investors may not have the same level of interest in Ethereum as they do in Bitcoin. Grayscale's stance on an Ethereum ETF remains unclear, and the future of Ethereum spot ETFs remains uncertain.

彭博社的最新分析表明，以太坊現貨 ETF 在不久的將來不太可能獲得監管部門的批准。加密產業不太可能參與重大的法律鬥爭，機構投資者對以太坊的興趣可能不如對比特幣的興趣。 Grayscale 對以太幣 ETF 的立場仍不清楚，以太坊現貨 ETF 的未來仍不確定。