美国监管机构发出拒绝以太坊现货 ETF 的信号，行业不太可能发起法律诉讼

美国监管机构不太可能批准以太坊 (ETH) 现货 ETF，因为与比特币相比，该资产的市值和机构兴趣较低。彭博 ETF 分析师 Eric Balchunas 认为，由于潜在回报和所需资源有限，加密行业可能不会采取法律行动。

Ethereum Spot ETFs Face Uncertain Future as Regulators Signal Rejection

监管机构发出拒绝信号，以太坊现货 ETF 面临不确定的未来

According to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, U.S. regulators are likely to reject Ethereum (ETH) spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This assessment contradicts Balchunas' previous optimism about Bitcoin spot ETFs prior to their January approval.

彭博 ETF 分析师 Eric Balchunas 表示，美国监管机构可能会拒绝以太坊 (ETH) 现货交易所交易基金 (ETF)。这一评估与 Balchunas 在 1 月份批准比特币现货 ETF 之前对比特币现货 ETF 的乐观态度相矛盾。

Industry Unlikely to Wage Legal Battle

行业不太可能发起法律战

Balchunas' analysis suggests that the crypto industry is unlikely to engage in a significant legal fight against the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) if it denies ETH spot ETF applications. This conclusion is based on the relatively small size of Ethereum futures ETFs, which hold only 4% of the assets held by Bitcoin futures ETFs.

Balchunas 的分析表明，如果美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 拒绝 ETH 现货 ETF 申请，加密行业不太可能与美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 进行重大法律斗争。这一结论是基于以太坊期货ETF规模相对较小，其持有的资产仅占比特币期货ETF持有资产的4%。

Limited Institutional Appetite for Ethereum

机构对以太坊的兴趣有限

The analyst cites the lack of investor interest in the ProShares Ether Strategy ETF, which launched approximately two years after its Bitcoin counterpart and currently holds significantly less assets under management (AUM). This disparity indicates that institutional investors may have less appetite for Ethereum compared to Bitcoin.

该分析师指出，投资者对 ProShares 以太策略 ETF 缺乏兴趣，该 ETF 比比特币同类产品晚大约两年推出，目前管理资产 (AUM) 大幅减少。这种差异表明，与比特币相比，机构投资者对以太坊的兴趣可能较小。

Industry Experts Corroborate Market Sentiment

行业专家证实市场情绪

Sponsors of major Bitcoin ETFs have expressed similar views, suggesting that institutional investors prioritize Bitcoin over Ethereum. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan stated that Ethereum ETFs may gain more traction if launched after Bitcoin ETFs, while Robert Mitchnick of BlackRock prioritized Bitcoin exposure among clients.

主要比特币 ETF 的发起人也表达了类似的观点，表明机构投资者优先考虑比特币而不是以太坊。 Bitwise 首席信息官 Matt Hougan 表示，如果在比特币 ETF 之后推出，以太坊 ETF 可能会获得更多关注，而贝莱德 (BlackRock) 的罗伯特·米奇尼克 (Robert Mitchnick) 则优先考虑在客户中投资比特币。

Grayscale's Ambiguous Stance

灰度的暧昧立场

Ethereum proponents argue that comparing the performance of futures ETFs is inappropriate given their different launch timings. However, Balchunas counters that Grayscale, a major Bitcoin ETF provider, is unlikely to support legal action for an Ethereum ETF that is likely to have a smaller market share.

以太坊支持者认为，鉴于期货 ETF 的推出时间不同，比较它们的表现是不合适的。然而，Balchunas 反驳说，主要的比特币 ETF 提供商 Grayscale 不太可能支持对市场份额可能较小的以太坊 ETF 采取法律行动。

SEC's Stance on Spot ETFs

SEC 对现货 ETF 的立场

Previously, the SEC opposed Bitcoin spot ETFs, citing concerns about market manipulation. However, a lawsuit by Grayscale prompted the SEC to reverse this stance, leading to the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs.

此前，美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 反对比特币现货 ETF，理由是担心市场操纵。然而，灰度的诉讼促使 SEC 改变了这一立场，从而导致比特币现货 ETF 获得批准。

Grayscale's Dilemma

灰度的困境

Ironically, the increased competition resulting from ETF approvals has led to outflows from Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), eroding its market share. Balchunas questions whether Grayscale would be willing to incur the legal expenses and risk further outflows for an Ethereum ETF with a potentially smaller market size.

具有讽刺意味的是，ETF 批准导致竞争加剧，导致灰度比特币信托 (GBTC) 资金流出，侵蚀其市场份额。 Balchunas 质疑 Grayscale 是否愿意为市场规模可能较小的以太坊 ETF 承担法律费用并冒进一步资金外流的风险。

Conclusion

结论

The latest analysis from Bloomberg suggests that Ethereum spot ETFs are unlikely to gain regulatory approval in the near future. The crypto industry is unlikely to engage in a significant legal fight, and institutional investors may not have the same level of interest in Ethereum as they do in Bitcoin. Grayscale's stance on an Ethereum ETF remains unclear, and the future of Ethereum spot ETFs remains uncertain.

彭博社的最新分析表明，以太坊现货 ETF 在不久的将来不太可能获得监管部门的批准。加密行业不太可能参与重大的法律斗争，机构投资者对以太坊的兴趣可能不如对比特币的兴趣。 Grayscale 对以太坊 ETF 的立场仍不清楚，以太坊现货 ETF 的未来仍不确定。