收到密鑰信號後，Solana（Sol）可能是下一個發射現場ETF的加密貨幣

美國證券交易委員會（SEC）最近發布了主要信號，該信號可能會加速Solana ETF的批准過程。

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has recently requested several asset management companies to submit updated registration documents (Form S-1) for their Solana ETF applications within seven days, according to a report by Blockworks, citing people familiar with the matter.

根據Blockworks的一份報告，美國證券交易委員會（SEC）最近要求幾家資產管理公司在7天內提交其SOLANA ETF申請的最新註冊文件（表格S-1）。

The SEC specifically requested revisions to the terms regarding “physical redemption” and “pledge mechanism,” and hinted that the Solana ETF may be allowed to include a pledge income function. This development was interpreted by the market as a positive shift in regulatory attitudes.

SEC專門要求對有關“物理贖回”和“承諾機制”的條款進行修訂，並暗示可以允許Solana ETF包括承諾收入職能。市場將這種發展解釋為監管態度的積極轉變。

Following the news, the SOL price increased by 5% over the past day to reach over $165, but later pulled back to around $163.6 by the time of writing.

新聞之後，過去一天的SOL價格上漲了5％，達到165美元以上，但後來又回到了163.6美元左右。

The core revision requirements proposed by the SEC this time mainly focus on two aspects: the language of in-kind redemptions and how the issuer will handle the staking issue. For investors:

SEC提出的核心修訂要求這次主要集中於兩個方面：實物贖回的語言以及發行人將如何處理放入問題。對於投資者：

In-kind redemption: This means that ETF unit holders can choose to directly receive SOL tokens of equivalent value instead of cash when redeeming their fund units. This mechanism is generally considered to be more advantageous than cash redemption in terms of tax efficiency and operational flexibility, and is more attractive to investors.

實物贖回：這意味著ETF單位持有人可以選擇直接獲得等效價值的Sol令牌，而不是現金兌換其基金單位。就稅收效率和運營靈活性而言，這種機制通常被認為比現金贖回更有利，並且對投資者更具吸引力。

Staking: Solana is a blockchain that uses the Proof of Stake (PoS) mechanism, which allows its token holders to participate in network verification and receive rewards by “staking” tokens. If the SEC allows the inclusion of a staking mechanism, it means that investors who purchase ETF shares can not only gain benefits from price increases, but also indirectly enjoy staking rewards, which will greatly increase the attractiveness of the SOL ETF and make it an investment product with more diverse income potential.

Staking：Solana是一個使用Stake（POS）機制證明的區塊鏈，它允許其令牌持有人參與網絡驗證，並通過“放置”代幣獲得獎勵。如果SEC允許納入製定機制，則意味著購買ETF股票的投資者不僅可以從價格上漲中獲得收益，而且可以間接享受放入獎勵，這將大大提高SOL ETF的吸引力，並使其成為具有更多樣化收入潛力的投資產品。

The lineup of institutions applying for this product is also very luxurious, including the original team of Bitcoin ETFs such as Fidelity, VanEck, and Grayscale. It is worth noting that Grayscale plans to convert its existing SOL trust product into a spot ETF, replicating its successful path in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.

申請該產品的機構陣容也非常豪華，包括Fidelity，Vaneck和Grayscale等比特幣ETF的原始團隊。值得注意的是，灰度計劃將其現有的SOL Trust產品轉換為現場ETF，以復制其在比特幣和以太坊ETF中的成功路徑。

Market observers pointed out that CME exchange launched Solana futures in February 2024. This "pre-emptive action" is highly similar to the process before the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, further strengthening the expectation of approval.

市場觀察家指出，CME Exchange於2024年2月推出了Solana Futures。這種“先發製人的行動”與在比特幣和以太坊ETF批准之前的過程高度相似，進一步加強了對認可的期望。

Optimistic approval timeline: as early as July?

樂觀的批准時間表：早在7月？

Sources expect that once these S-1 filings are updated, the Solana ETF could receive final approval within the next three to five weeks.

消息人士預計，一旦這些S-1文件更新，Solana ETF將在未來三到五週內獲得最終批准。

James Seyffart, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, is also very optimistic about this. He said he expects approval to come this year, or even as early as July. Although the SEC's final deadline for 19b-4 filings (listing rule change applications) for these products is in October, Seyffart believes that the SEC may now prioritize applications for Solana and pledged ETFs, which means that the final decision may come earlier than originally planned, which requires issuers and industry participants to closely cooperate with the SEC and its crypto task force to jointly develop relevant rules.

彭博社的高級ETF分析師詹姆斯·塞伊法特（James Seyffart）對此也非常樂觀。他說，他預計今年甚至早在7月才能獲得批准。 Although the SEC's final deadline for 19b-4 filings (listing rule change applications) for these products is in October, Seyffart believes that the SEC may now prioritize applications for Solana and pledged ETFs, which means that the final decision may come earlier than originally planned, which requires issuers and industry participants to closely cooperate with the SEC and its crypto task force to jointly develop relevant rules.

In April, Bloomberg Industry Research analyst Eric Balchunas said that he had raised the probability of SOL ETF approval from 70% to 90%. In his latest tweet, he said: "Get ready for a potential altcoin ETF summer, Solana may lead the trend (and some basket products)."

4月，彭博行業研究分析師埃里克·巴爾庫納斯（Eric Balchunas）表示，他將SOL ETF批准的可能性從70％提高到90％。他在最近的推文中說：“為潛在的Altcoin ETF夏季做好準備，Solana可能會帶領趨勢（和一些籃子產品）。”

SOL Short-term Trend

SOL短期趨勢

If we refer to the historical experience of Bitcoin ETF, within three months after the approval of Bitcoin ETF, the price of BTC has increased by about 60%. If Solana replicates this increase, its price is expected to hit the range of $250-300 at the current price of $160. However, this optimistic expectation needs to be viewed with caution - the case of Ethereum ETF has proved that approval may not directly drive a sharp rise in the price of the currency.

如果我們指比特幣ETF的歷史經驗（在比特幣ETF批准後三個月內），BTC的價格上漲了約60％。如果Solana重複了這一增加，則預計其價格將以160美元的價格達到250-300美元的範圍。但是，需要謹慎對待這種樂觀的期望 - 以太坊ETF的情況證明，批准可能不會直接推動貨幣價格急劇上漲。

From a technical perspective, crypto analyst Grayhoood observed that SOL technical indicators such as RSI, Stochastic Oscillator and Commodity Channel Index (CCI) all sent positive signals, especially after SOL broke through the $154 resistance level, indicating that buyer power is increasing and prices still have room to rise.

從技術角度來看，加密分析師Grayhoood觀察到SOL技術指標，例如RSI，隨機振盪器和商品通道指數（CCI）都發送了積極的信號，尤其是在SOL突破了154美元的電阻水平之後，這表明買方的力量正在增加，而且價格仍有增加空間。

From a long-term perspective, the 30-day and annual moving averages (down 5.3% and 2.9% respectively) still show that the recent gains have not completely reversed the previous bearish structure. If it can continue to break through, the upper resistance is around $181/187/194.

從長期的角度來看，30天和年度的移動平均值（分別下降5.3％和2.9％）仍然表明，最近的收益並未完全逆轉以前的看跌結構。如果可以繼續突破，則高電阻約為$ 181/187/194。