收到密钥信号后，Solana（Sol）可能是下一个发射现场ETF的加密货币

美国证券交易委员会（SEC）最近发布了主要信号，该信号可能会加速Solana ETF的批准过程。

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has recently requested several asset management companies to submit updated registration documents (Form S-1) for their Solana ETF applications within seven days, according to a report by Blockworks, citing people familiar with the matter.

根据Blockworks的一份报告，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）最近要求几家资产管理公司在7天内提交其SOLANA ETF申请的最新注册文件（表格S-1）。

The SEC specifically requested revisions to the terms regarding “physical redemption” and “pledge mechanism,” and hinted that the Solana ETF may be allowed to include a pledge income function. This development was interpreted by the market as a positive shift in regulatory attitudes.

SEC专门要求对有关“物理赎回”和“承诺机制”的条款进行修订，并暗示可以允许Solana ETF包括承诺收入职能。市场将这种发展解释为监管态度的积极转变。

Following the news, the SOL price increased by 5% over the past day to reach over $165, but later pulled back to around $163.6 by the time of writing.

新闻之后，过去一天的SOL价格上涨了5％，达到165美元以上，但后来又回到了163.6美元左右。

The core revision requirements proposed by the SEC this time mainly focus on two aspects: the language of in-kind redemptions and how the issuer will handle the staking issue. For investors:

SEC提出的核心修订要求这次主要集中于两个方面：实物赎回的语言以及发行人将如何处理放入问题。对于投资者：

In-kind redemption: This means that ETF unit holders can choose to directly receive SOL tokens of equivalent value instead of cash when redeeming their fund units. This mechanism is generally considered to be more advantageous than cash redemption in terms of tax efficiency and operational flexibility, and is more attractive to investors.

实物赎回：这意味着ETF单位持有人可以选择直接获得等效价值的Sol令牌，而不是现金兑换其基金单位。就税收效率和运营灵活性而言，这种机制通常被认为比现金赎回更有利，并且对投资者更具吸引力。

Staking: Solana is a blockchain that uses the Proof of Stake (PoS) mechanism, which allows its token holders to participate in network verification and receive rewards by “staking” tokens. If the SEC allows the inclusion of a staking mechanism, it means that investors who purchase ETF shares can not only gain benefits from price increases, but also indirectly enjoy staking rewards, which will greatly increase the attractiveness of the SOL ETF and make it an investment product with more diverse income potential.

Staking：Solana是一个使用Stake（POS）机制证明的区块链，它允许其令牌持有人参与网络验证，并通过“放置”代币获得奖励。如果SEC允许纳入制定机制，则意味着购买ETF股票的投资者不仅可以从价格上涨中获得收益，而且可以间接享受放入奖励，这将大大提高SOL ETF的吸引力，并使其成为具有更多样化收入潜力的投资产品。

The lineup of institutions applying for this product is also very luxurious, including the original team of Bitcoin ETFs such as Fidelity, VanEck, and Grayscale. It is worth noting that Grayscale plans to convert its existing SOL trust product into a spot ETF, replicating its successful path in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.

申请该产品的机构阵容也非常豪华，包括Fidelity，Vaneck和Grayscale等比特币ETF的原始团队。值得注意的是，灰度计划将其现有的SOL Trust产品转换为现场ETF，以复制其在比特币和以太坊ETF中的成功路径。

Market observers pointed out that CME exchange launched Solana futures in February 2024. This "pre-emptive action" is highly similar to the process before the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, further strengthening the expectation of approval.

市场观察家指出，CME Exchange于2024年2月推出了Solana Futures。这种“先发制人的行动”与在比特币和以太坊ETF批准之前的过程高度相似，进一步加强了对认可的期望。

Optimistic approval timeline: as early as July?

乐观的批准时间表：早在7月？

Sources expect that once these S-1 filings are updated, the Solana ETF could receive final approval within the next three to five weeks.

消息人士预计，一旦这些S-1文件更新，Solana ETF将在未来三到五周内获得最终批准。

James Seyffart, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, is also very optimistic about this. He said he expects approval to come this year, or even as early as July. Although the SEC's final deadline for 19b-4 filings (listing rule change applications) for these products is in October, Seyffart believes that the SEC may now prioritize applications for Solana and pledged ETFs, which means that the final decision may come earlier than originally planned, which requires issuers and industry participants to closely cooperate with the SEC and its crypto task force to jointly develop relevant rules.

彭博社的高级ETF分析师詹姆斯·塞伊法特（James Seyffart）对此也非常乐观。他说，他预计今年甚至早在7月才能获得批准。 Although the SEC's final deadline for 19b-4 filings (listing rule change applications) for these products is in October, Seyffart believes that the SEC may now prioritize applications for Solana and pledged ETFs, which means that the final decision may come earlier than originally planned, which requires issuers and industry participants to closely cooperate with the SEC and its crypto task force to jointly develop relevant rules.

In April, Bloomberg Industry Research analyst Eric Balchunas said that he had raised the probability of SOL ETF approval from 70% to 90%. In his latest tweet, he said: "Get ready for a potential altcoin ETF summer, Solana may lead the trend (and some basket products)."

4月，彭博行业研究分析师埃里克·巴尔库纳斯（Eric Balchunas）表示，他将SOL ETF批准的可能性从70％提高到90％。他在最近的推文中说：“为潜在的Altcoin ETF夏季做好准备，Solana可能会带领趋势（和一些篮子产品）。”

SOL Short-term Trend

SOL短期趋势

If we refer to the historical experience of Bitcoin ETF, within three months after the approval of Bitcoin ETF, the price of BTC has increased by about 60%. If Solana replicates this increase, its price is expected to hit the range of $250-300 at the current price of $160. However, this optimistic expectation needs to be viewed with caution - the case of Ethereum ETF has proved that approval may not directly drive a sharp rise in the price of the currency.

如果我们指比特币ETF的历史经验（在比特币ETF批准后三个月内），BTC的价格上涨了约60％。如果Solana重复了这一增加，则预计其价格将以160美元的价格达到250-300美元的范围。但是，需要谨慎对待这种乐观的期望 - 以太坊ETF的情况证明，批准可能不会直接推动货币价格急剧上涨。

From a technical perspective, crypto analyst Grayhoood observed that SOL technical indicators such as RSI, Stochastic Oscillator and Commodity Channel Index (CCI) all sent positive signals, especially after SOL broke through the $154 resistance level, indicating that buyer power is increasing and prices still have room to rise.

从技术角度来看，加密分析师Grayhoood观察到SOL技术指标，例如RSI，随机振荡器和商品通道指数（CCI）都发送了积极的信号，尤其是在SOL突破了154美元的电阻水平之后，这表明买方的力量正在增加，而且价格仍有增加空间。

From a long-term perspective, the 30-day and annual moving averages (down 5.3% and 2.9% respectively) still show that the recent gains have not completely reversed the previous bearish structure. If it can continue to break through, the upper resistance is around $181/187/194.

从长期的角度来看，30天和年度的移动平均值（分别下降5.3％和2.9％）仍然表明，最近的收益并未完全逆转以前的看跌结构。如果可以继续突破，则高电阻约为$ 181/187/194。