雷·達利奧（Ray Dalio）發出警報：美國預算的經濟後果

雷·達利奧（Ray Dalio）警告說，美國預算造成了嚴重的經濟後果，指出債務不斷上升和迫在眉睫的危機。美國可以避免“大而痛苦的破壞”嗎？

Hold on to your hats, folks! Ray Dalio, the billionaire investor who knows a thing or two about navigating choppy waters, is sounding the alarm. And what's got him so worked up? The US budget, of course! Dalio's warning of severe economic consequences, escalating debt, and a potential crisis is something we should pay attention to.

抓住你的帽子，伙計們！億萬富翁投資者雷·達利奧（Ray Dalio）對駕駛波濤洶湧的水域了解一兩件事，他正在發出警報。什麼讓他如此努力？當然，美國預算！達利奧（Dalio）警告了嚴重的經濟後果，債務上升和潛在的危機，這是我們應該關注的事情。

Dalio's Debt Warning: A Financial Heart Attack?

達利奧（Dalio）的債務警告：金融心髒病發作？

Dalio isn't mincing words. He sees America's soaring national debt, now exceeding $36 trillion, as a ticking time bomb. He likens the unchecked debt growth to plaque buildup in an artery—invisible at first, but ultimately deadly. His estimate of a critical breakdown hitting in roughly three years, fueled by rising interest costs and a growing imbalance between debt supply and investor demand, should serve as a wake-up call.

達利奧（Dalio）沒有切碎單詞。他認為，美國飆升的國家債務（現在超過36萬億美元）是一枚滴答時間炸彈。他將不受限制的債務增長比作動脈中的牙菌斑堆積，最初是可視的，但最終是致命的。他對大約三年來嚴重崩潰的估計，這是由於利息成本上升以及債務供應和投資者需求之間日益增長的不平衡的推動力，應該是一個喚醒電話。

The Numbers Don't Lie: A Trillion-Dollar Problem

數字不撒謊：萬億美元的問題

The newly passed U.S. budget bill is projected to result in annual federal spending of about $7 trillion, while revenues are around $5 trillion. This $2 trillion deficit would drive national debt levels even higher, potentially reaching 130% of GDP and $425,000 per American family, according to Dalio.

新近通過的美國預算賬單預計將導致年度聯邦支出約7萬億美元，而收入約為5萬億美元。根據達利奧（Dalio）的數據，這一2萬億美元的赤字將推動國民債務水平更高，每個美國家庭可能達到GDP的130％和425,000美元。

The Government's Options: A Rock and a Hard Place

政府的選擇：岩石和艱難的地方

Dalio argues that the government has limited options: slash spending, raise taxes dramatically, or print more money. Each of these options carries serious risks. Printing more money could devalue the dollar and undermine confidence in U.S. bonds.

達利奧（Dalio）認為，政府的選擇有限：削減支出，大幅提高稅收或打印更多的錢。這些選項中的每一個都有嚴重的風險。打印更多的錢可能會使美元貶值並破壞對美國債券的信心。

A Path to Safety: A Fiscal Course Correction

安全道路：財政課程校正

Dalio believes that the only viable path forward is a fiscal course correction: reducing the budget deficit from about 7% of GDP to 3% through disciplined adjustments to spending, taxation, and interest payments. He points to the 1990s as an example, when a similar correction was achieved through shared sacrifice.

達利奧（Dalio）認為，唯一可行的途徑是財政課程校正：通過對支出，稅收和利息支付的紀律調整，將預算赤字從GDP的約7％降低到3％。他以1990年代為例，當時通過共同的犧牲實現了類似的糾正。

Can We Avoid the Pain?

我們可以避免痛苦嗎？

Whether the political will exists to repeat that success, however, remains uncertain. Dalio cautions that further erosion of trust in U.S. credit could ripple through both economic and social systems. Without such measures, Dalio concludes, “big, painful disruptions will likely occur.”

但是，是否存在重複成功的政治意志仍然不確定。達利奧（Dalio）警告說，進一步侵蝕了美國信貸的信任可能會在經濟和社會體系中遍布。達利奧（Dalio）得出結論，“如果沒有這樣的措施，可能會發生大而痛苦的中斷。”

The Bottom Line

底線

Dalio's warnings are a stark reminder that we can't ignore the growing national debt. The longer we wait to address the problem, the more painful the consequences will be.

達利奧（Dalio）的警告提醒我們，我們不能忽略日益增長的國債。我們等待解決問題的時間越長，後果就會越痛苦。

So, what's the takeaway? Maybe it's time to start paying a little closer attention to those budget debates in Washington. After all, it's our financial future that's on the line. And who knows, maybe if we all start demanding some fiscal responsibility, we can avoid those

那麼，收穫是什麼？也許是時候開始密切關注華盛頓的預算辯論了。畢竟，正是我們的財務未來。誰知道，也許我們都開始要求承擔一些財政責任，我們可以避免