雷·达利奥（Ray Dalio）发出警报：美国预算的经济后果

雷·达利奥（Ray Dalio）警告说，美国预算造成了严重的经济后果，指出债务不断上升和迫在眉睫的危机。美国可以避免“大而痛苦的破坏”吗？

Hold on to your hats, folks! Ray Dalio, the billionaire investor who knows a thing or two about navigating choppy waters, is sounding the alarm. And what's got him so worked up? The US budget, of course! Dalio's warning of severe economic consequences, escalating debt, and a potential crisis is something we should pay attention to.

抓住你的帽子，伙计们！亿万富翁投资者雷·达利奥（Ray Dalio）对驾驶波涛汹涌的水域了解一两件事，他正在发出警报。什么让他如此努力？当然，美国预算！达利奥（Dalio）警告了严重的经济后果，债务上升和潜在的危机，这是我们应该关注的事情。

Dalio's Debt Warning: A Financial Heart Attack?

达利奥（Dalio）的债务警告：金融心脏病发作？

Dalio isn't mincing words. He sees America's soaring national debt, now exceeding $36 trillion, as a ticking time bomb. He likens the unchecked debt growth to plaque buildup in an artery—invisible at first, but ultimately deadly. His estimate of a critical breakdown hitting in roughly three years, fueled by rising interest costs and a growing imbalance between debt supply and investor demand, should serve as a wake-up call.

达利奥（Dalio）没有切碎单词。他认为，美国飙升的国家债务（现在超过36万亿美元）是一枚滴答时间炸弹。他将不受限制的债务增长比作动脉中的牙菌斑堆积，最初是可视的，但最终是致命的。他对大约三年来严重崩溃的估计，这是由于利息成本上升以及债务供应和投资者需求之间日益增长的不平衡的推动力，应该是一个唤醒电话。

The Numbers Don't Lie: A Trillion-Dollar Problem

数字不撒谎：万亿美元的问题

The newly passed U.S. budget bill is projected to result in annual federal spending of about $7 trillion, while revenues are around $5 trillion. This $2 trillion deficit would drive national debt levels even higher, potentially reaching 130% of GDP and $425,000 per American family, according to Dalio.

新近通过的美国预算账单预计将导致年度联邦支出约7万亿美元，而收入约为5万亿美元。根据达利奥（Dalio）的数据，这一2万亿美元的赤字将推动国民债务水平更高，每个美国家庭可能达到GDP的130％和425,000美元。

The Government's Options: A Rock and a Hard Place

政府的选择：岩石和艰难的地方

Dalio argues that the government has limited options: slash spending, raise taxes dramatically, or print more money. Each of these options carries serious risks. Printing more money could devalue the dollar and undermine confidence in U.S. bonds.

达利奥（Dalio）认为，政府的选择有限：削减支出，大幅提高税收或打印更多的钱。这些选项中的每一个都有严重的风险。打印更多的钱可能会使美元贬值并破坏对美国债券的信心。

A Path to Safety: A Fiscal Course Correction

安全道路：财政课程校正

Dalio believes that the only viable path forward is a fiscal course correction: reducing the budget deficit from about 7% of GDP to 3% through disciplined adjustments to spending, taxation, and interest payments. He points to the 1990s as an example, when a similar correction was achieved through shared sacrifice.

达利奥（Dalio）认为，唯一可行的途径是财政课程校正：通过对支出，税收和利息支付的纪律调整，将预算赤字从GDP的约7％降低到3％。他以1990年代为例，当时通过共同的牺牲实现了类似的纠正。

Can We Avoid the Pain?

我们可以避免痛苦吗？

Whether the political will exists to repeat that success, however, remains uncertain. Dalio cautions that further erosion of trust in U.S. credit could ripple through both economic and social systems. Without such measures, Dalio concludes, “big, painful disruptions will likely occur.”

但是，是否存在重复成功的政治意志仍然不确定。达利奥（Dalio）警告说，进一步侵蚀了美国信贷的信任可能会在经济和社会体系中遍布。达利奥（Dalio）得出结论，“如果没有这样的措施，可能会发生大而痛苦的中断。”

The Bottom Line

底线

Dalio's warnings are a stark reminder that we can't ignore the growing national debt. The longer we wait to address the problem, the more painful the consequences will be.

达利奥（Dalio）的警告提醒我们，我们不能忽略日益增长的国债。我们等待解决问题的时间越长，后果就会越痛苦。

So, what's the takeaway? Maybe it's time to start paying a little closer attention to those budget debates in Washington. After all, it's our financial future that's on the line. And who knows, maybe if we all start demanding some fiscal responsibility, we can avoid those

那么，收获是什么？也许是时候开始密切关注华盛顿的预算辩论了。毕竟，正是我们的财务未来。谁知道，也许我们都开始要求承担一些财政责任，我们可以避免