量子危險在比特幣上隱約可見

著名的“ Q-Day”圍繞著懷疑。量子技術將超過保護比特幣的密碼學的那一天。

A day of reckoning is fast approaching. Not the day of Q-Day, which has already passed without consequence. But the day when quantum technology will finally outpace the cryptography used to secure Bitcoin.

估算的一天快到了。不是Q-Day的日子，它已經過去了沒有後果。但是，量子技術最終將超過用於保護比特幣的密碼學的日子。

This time, the warning comes not from a fringe crypto figure, but from asset management giant BlackRock, which has explicitly mentioned the quantum risk in its iShares Bitcoin ETF filing.

這次，警告不是來自邊緣加密人物，而是來自資產管理巨型貝萊德（Blackrock），該黑石石已明確提到其Ishares比特幣ETF申請中的量子風險。

With the asset manager now highlighting the threat posed by quantum computers, the question arises: Is the security of Bitcoin ultimately threatened by the power of future quantum computers? And if so, what are the implications for the world’s leading cryptocurrency?

隨著資產管理器現在強調量子計算機構成的威脅，出現的問題是：比特幣的安全性最終是否受到未來量子計算機的力量威脅？如果是這樣，對世界領先的加密貨幣有什麼影響？

BlackRock Warns Of Quantum Computing In Bitcoin ETF Filing

貝萊德警告比特幣ETF中的量子計算

As reported by Cointribune, the asset management firm has updated the prospectus for its iShares Bitcoin ETF to include a section on the threat posed by quantum computers.

正如Cointribune報導的那樣，資產管理公司已更新了其Ishares比特幣ETF的招股說明書，其中包括有關量子計算機構成的威脅的部分。

These futuristic machines, capable of performing calculations at an unprecedented speed, could theoretically decrypt the private keys used to secure Bitcoin transactions.

這些能夠以前所未有的速度執行計算的未來派機器，理論上可以解密用於確保比特幣交易的私鑰。

In its filing, BlackRock notes that if sufficiently powerful quantum processors emerge, they would have the capability to decrypt private keys and compromise wallet security.

貝萊德（Blackrock）在提交文件中指出，如果出現足夠強大的量子處理器，他們將有能力解密私鑰並損害錢包安全性。

The transition to quantum-resistant cryptography would require broad consensus among members of the Bitcoin community, which could be a complex and potentially contentious process, according to the firm.

該公司稱，向抗量子加密的過渡將需要比特幣社區成員之間的廣泛共識，這可能是一個複雜且可能有爭議的過程。

Technically, the fear arises from Shor’s algorithm, which is said to be capable of breaking the elliptic curve cryptography used by the Bitcoin network.

從技術上講，恐懼是由Shor的算法引起的，據說該算法能夠打破比特幣網絡使用的橢圓曲線密碼學。

Although Google and Microsoft have unveiled quantum processors—Willow and Majorana 1—that could perform the necessary computations in minutes, the technology is not yet advanced enough to pose an immediate threat.

儘管Google和Microsoft揭開了量子處理器（Willow and Majorana 1）的推出，可以在幾分鐘內執行必要的計算，但該技術尚未進步以構成直接威脅。

As Paolo Ardoino, CEO of Tether, notes, quantum machines are still far from being able to crack 256-bit security, providing some breathing room.

正如Tether Notes的首席執行官Paolo Ardoino一樣，Quantum機器仍然無法破解256位安全性，提供了一些呼吸空間。

However, according to analysis, nearly 25% of the total bitcoins in circulation are stored in addresses that could be vulnerable, especially those whose public key has already been revealed.

但是，根據分析，流通總比特幣的近25％存儲在可能很脆弱的地址中，尤其是那些已經揭示的公鑰的地址。

Should a sufficiently powerful quantum computer ever be developed, these coins would then be at risk.

如果開發出足夠強大的量子計算機，這些硬幣將面臨風險。

Varying Perspectives On Quantum Threat

關於量子威脅的不同觀點

In the crypto community, opinions are divided on the severity of the threat posed by quantum computers. Some, like Coin Bureau, are sounding the alarm.

在加密社區中，觀點就量子計算機構成的威脅的嚴重性有所分歧。有些人，例如硬幣局，都在發出警報。

Their tweet highlights the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock, adding quantum computing as a risk in its Bitcoin ETF filing. This institutional warning is sure to heighten attention to the emerging threat.

他們的推文突出了世界上最大的資產經理貝萊德（Blackrock），將量子計算添加為其比特幣ETF申請的風險。這種機構警告肯定會加大對新興威脅的關注。

Conversely, experts like Ole Lehmann take a more optimistic view, noting that Bitcoin anticipated this risk a long time ago.

相反，像Ole Lehmann這樣的專家採取更加樂觀的看法，並指出比特幣很久以前就會預見這種風險。

“Bitcoin isn’t afraid of Willow, Google’s quantum processor. Satoshi warned about this 14 years ago with BTC,” writes Ole.

Ole寫道：“比特幣不怕Google的量子處理器Willow。Satoshi警告了14年前的BTC。”

He explains that the Willow processor, despite being revolutionary, is just the first step in a long journey. To threaten Bitcoin, a technological leap of several orders would be required.

他解釋說，儘管具有革命性，柳樹處理器只是漫長旅程的第一步。要威脅比特幣，將需要幾個訂單的技術飛躍。

Ole adds that Bitcoin developers are already working on post-quantum signatures, such as SPHINCS+, which will replace the old methods.

OLE補充說，比特幣開發人員已經在Quantum signatures（例如SPHINCS+）上工作，該標誌將取代舊方法。

Furthermore, the blockchain is not static. Recent forks, such as SegWit or Taproot, have already reinforced the network’s security and scalability.

此外，區塊鏈不是靜態的。最近的叉子（例如Segwit或Taproot）已經增強了網絡的安全性和可擴展性。

The community and developers demonstrate an adaptability that suggests a future with effective post-quantum protections.

社區和開發人員展示了一種適應性，這表明了有效的量詞後保護的未來。

Key Figures And Financial Stakes

關鍵數字和財務賭注

Quantum represents a potential threat but also a significant economic challenge for Bitcoin and the crypto-sphere. Here are the key figures to remember:

量子代表了潛在的威脅，但對比特幣和加密貨幣幣來說也是一個重大的經濟挑戰。這是要記住的關鍵人物：

• The total value of bitcoins is now around $500 billion.

•現在比特幣的總價值約為5000億美元。

• Nearly 25% of bitcoins are stored in addresses that could be vulnerable to quantum computing.

•將近25％的比特幣存儲在可能容易受到量子計算的地址中。

• A rough estimate places the value of bitcoins at risk due to a potential quantum attack at around $125 billion.

•一個粗略的估計，由於潛在的量子攻擊，比特幣的價值處於危險之中，約為1,250億美元。

This observation reveals a contradiction: the market largely ignores the threat, focusing instead on immediate volatility and growth, while the quantum threat calls for deep preparation.

這一觀察結果表明了一個矛盾：市場在很大程度上忽略了威脅，而是關注立即的波動和增長，而量子威脅要求進行深入準備。

Moreover, the transition to post-quantum cryptography could be laborious and divide the community.

此外，向量子後密碼學的過渡可能會艱辛，並使社區分裂。

In this race against time, some players, like Naoris, specialized in cybersecurity, are developing solutions to secure EVM-compatible blockchains without requiring a hard fork.

在這場與時間的比賽中，一些專門從事網絡安全的Naoris等玩家正在開發解決方案以確保與EVM兼容的區塊鏈確保無需硬叉。

This innovative approach offers extra comfort against future risks while maintaining network compatibility.

這種創新的方法為未來的風險提供了額外的舒適感，同時保持網絡兼容性。

Thus, the rise of quantum computing could also spur a new generation of protections, combining enhanced security and technological continuity.

因此，量子計算的興起也可能刺激新一代的保護，結合了增強的安全性和技術連續性。