量子危险在比特币上隐约可见

著名的“ Q-Day”围绕着怀疑。量子技术将超过保护比特币的密码学的那一天。

A day of reckoning is fast approaching. Not the day of Q-Day, which has already passed without consequence. But the day when quantum technology will finally outpace the cryptography used to secure Bitcoin.

估算的一天快到了。不是Q-Day的日子，它已经过去了没有后果。但是，量子技术最终将超过用于保护比特币的密码学的日子。

This time, the warning comes not from a fringe crypto figure, but from asset management giant BlackRock, which has explicitly mentioned the quantum risk in its iShares Bitcoin ETF filing.

这次，警告不是来自边缘加密人物，而是来自资产管理巨型贝莱德（Blackrock），该黑石石已明确提到其Ishares比特币ETF申请中的量子风险。

With the asset manager now highlighting the threat posed by quantum computers, the question arises: Is the security of Bitcoin ultimately threatened by the power of future quantum computers? And if so, what are the implications for the world’s leading cryptocurrency?

随着资产管理器现在强调量子计算机构成的威胁，出现的问题是：比特币的安全性最终是否受到未来量子计算机的力量威胁？如果是这样，对世界领先的加密货币有什么影响？

BlackRock Warns Of Quantum Computing In Bitcoin ETF Filing

贝莱德警告比特币ETF中的量子计算

As reported by Cointribune, the asset management firm has updated the prospectus for its iShares Bitcoin ETF to include a section on the threat posed by quantum computers.

正如Cointribune报道的那样，资产管理公司已更新了其Ishares比特币ETF的招股说明书，其中包括有关量子计算机构成的威胁的部分。

These futuristic machines, capable of performing calculations at an unprecedented speed, could theoretically decrypt the private keys used to secure Bitcoin transactions.

这些能够以前所未有的速度执行计算的未来派机器，理论上可以解密用于确保比特币交易的私钥。

In its filing, BlackRock notes that if sufficiently powerful quantum processors emerge, they would have the capability to decrypt private keys and compromise wallet security.

贝莱德（Blackrock）在提交文件中指出，如果出现足够强大的量子处理器，他们将有能力解密私钥并损害钱包安全性。

The transition to quantum-resistant cryptography would require broad consensus among members of the Bitcoin community, which could be a complex and potentially contentious process, according to the firm.

该公司称，向抗量子加密的过渡将需要比特币社区成员之间的广泛共识，这可能是一个复杂且可能有争议的过程。

Technically, the fear arises from Shor’s algorithm, which is said to be capable of breaking the elliptic curve cryptography used by the Bitcoin network.

从技术上讲，恐惧是由Shor的算法引起的，据说该算法能够打破比特币网络使用的椭圆曲线密码学。

Although Google and Microsoft have unveiled quantum processors—Willow and Majorana 1—that could perform the necessary computations in minutes, the technology is not yet advanced enough to pose an immediate threat.

尽管Google和Microsoft揭开了量子处理器（Willow and Majorana 1）的推出，可以在几分钟内执行必要的计算，但该技术尚未进步以构成直接威胁。

As Paolo Ardoino, CEO of Tether, notes, quantum machines are still far from being able to crack 256-bit security, providing some breathing room.

正如Tether Notes的首席执行官Paolo Ardoino一样，Quantum机器仍然无法破解256位安全性，提供了一些呼吸空间。

However, according to analysis, nearly 25% of the total bitcoins in circulation are stored in addresses that could be vulnerable, especially those whose public key has already been revealed.

但是，根据分析，流通总比特币的近25％存储在可能很脆弱的地址中，尤其是那些已经揭示的公钥的地址。

Should a sufficiently powerful quantum computer ever be developed, these coins would then be at risk.

如果开发出足够强大的量子计算机，这些硬币将面临风险。

Varying Perspectives On Quantum Threat

关于量子威胁的不同观点

In the crypto community, opinions are divided on the severity of the threat posed by quantum computers. Some, like Coin Bureau, are sounding the alarm.

在加密社区中，观点就量子计算机构成的威胁的严重性有所分歧。有些人，例如硬币局，都在发出警报。

Their tweet highlights the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock, adding quantum computing as a risk in its Bitcoin ETF filing. This institutional warning is sure to heighten attention to the emerging threat.

他们的推文突出了世界上最大的资产经理贝莱德（Blackrock），将量子计算添加为其比特币ETF申请的风险。这种机构警告肯定会加大对新兴威胁的关注。

Conversely, experts like Ole Lehmann take a more optimistic view, noting that Bitcoin anticipated this risk a long time ago.

相反，像Ole Lehmann这样的专家采取更加乐观的看法，并指出比特币很久以前就会预见这种风险。

“Bitcoin isn’t afraid of Willow, Google’s quantum processor. Satoshi warned about this 14 years ago with BTC,” writes Ole.

Ole写道：“比特币不怕Google的量子处理器Willow。Satoshi警告了14年前的BTC。”

He explains that the Willow processor, despite being revolutionary, is just the first step in a long journey. To threaten Bitcoin, a technological leap of several orders would be required.

他解释说，尽管具有革命性，柳树处理器只是漫长旅程的第一步。要威胁比特币，将需要几个订单的技术飞跃。

Ole adds that Bitcoin developers are already working on post-quantum signatures, such as SPHINCS+, which will replace the old methods.

OLE补充说，比特币开发人员已经在Quantum signatures（例如SPHINCS+）上工作，该标志将取代旧方法。

Furthermore, the blockchain is not static. Recent forks, such as SegWit or Taproot, have already reinforced the network’s security and scalability.

此外，区块链不是静态的。最近的叉子（例如Segwit或Taproot）已经增强了网络的安全性和可扩展性。

The community and developers demonstrate an adaptability that suggests a future with effective post-quantum protections.

社区和开发人员展示了一种适应性，这表明了有效的量词后保护的未来。

Key Figures And Financial Stakes

关键数字和财务赌注

Quantum represents a potential threat but also a significant economic challenge for Bitcoin and the crypto-sphere. Here are the key figures to remember:

量子代表了潜在的威胁，但对比特币和加密货币币来说也是一个重大的经济挑战。这是要记住的关键人物：

• The total value of bitcoins is now around $500 billion.

•现在比特币的总价值约为5000亿美元。

• Nearly 25% of bitcoins are stored in addresses that could be vulnerable to quantum computing.

•将近25％的比特币存储在可能容易受到量子计算的地址中。

• A rough estimate places the value of bitcoins at risk due to a potential quantum attack at around $125 billion.

•一个粗略的估计，由于潜在的量子攻击，比特币的价值处于危险之中，约为1,250亿美元。

This observation reveals a contradiction: the market largely ignores the threat, focusing instead on immediate volatility and growth, while the quantum threat calls for deep preparation.

这一观察结果表明了一个矛盾：市场在很大程度上忽略了威胁，而是关注立即的波动和增长，而量子威胁要求进行深入准备。

Moreover, the transition to post-quantum cryptography could be laborious and divide the community.

此外，向量子后密码学的过渡可能会艰辛，并使社区分裂。

In this race against time, some players, like Naoris, specialized in cybersecurity, are developing solutions to secure EVM-compatible blockchains without requiring a hard fork.

在这场与时间的比赛中，一些专门从事网络安全的Naoris等玩家正在开发解决方案以确保与EVM兼容的区块链确保无需硬叉。

This innovative approach offers extra comfort against future risks while maintaining network compatibility.

这种创新的方法为未来的风险提供了额外的舒适感，同时保持网络兼容性。

Thus, the rise of quantum computing could also spur a new generation of protections, combining enhanced security and technological continuity.

因此，量子计算的兴起也可能刺激新一代的保护，结合了增强的安全性和技术连续性。