Pump.fun：地球上最糟糕的賭場？

在代幣發行平台 Pump.fun 上找到成功的 memecoin 進行投資的幾率低於在賭場下注獲勝的幾率。

The odds of finding a successful memecoin to invest in on the token launch platform Pump.fun are lower than placing a winning bet in the casino. But experienced traders use strategies to try to improve their chances.

在代幣發行平台 Pump.fun 上找到成功的 memecoin 進行投資的幾率比在賭場中獲勝的幾率要低。但經驗豐富的交易者會使用策略來嘗試提高機會。

Experienced traders employ strategies to attempt to lower those odds and improve their chances, but recent social media activity suggests there is growing discontent among the ranks of degens as increasingly few investments turn a profit.

經驗豐富的交易者會採取策略來試圖降低賠率並提高機會，但最近的社交媒體活動表明，隨著越來越少的投資能夠盈利，德根們的不滿情緒越來越大。

One X user even described Pump.fun as “the worst casino on Earth.”

一位 X 用戶甚至將 Pump.fun 描述為「地球上最糟糕的賭場」。

In an Aug. 11 X post, memecoin trader Adam calculated that of the 16,357 tokens launched in the previous 24 hours, only 175 graduated to Raydium. Worse still, of those 175, only 19 remained above the $69,000 market cap threshold.

在 8 月 11 日的貼文中，memecoin 交易員 Adam 計算出，在過去 24 小時內推出的 16,357 個代幣中，只有 175 個升級到 Raydium。更糟的是，在這 175 家公司中，只有 19 家的市值仍高於 69,000 美元。

As Adam said: “From launch to profitable graduation that’s 0.12%,” dubbing the recent rate of success as a “slaughterhouse.”

正如 Adam 所說：“從推出到盈利畢業，只有 0.12%”，他將最近的成功率稱為“屠宰場”。

Source: Adam

資料來源：亞當

Why token launch services?

為什麼要推出代幣服務？

Token launch services such as Pump.fun and Basejump.pro aim to provide a safer environment for memecoin investors.

Pump.fun 和 Basejump.pro 等代幣發行服務旨在為 memecoin 投資者提供更安全的環境。

Coins created on the Solana-based Pump.fun have no presale or team allocation, and they must reach a market cap of $69,000 before they are allowed to “graduate” to a listing on Solana’s decentralized token-swapping service Raydium.

在基於 Solana 的 Pump.fun 上創建的代幣沒有預售或團隊分配，它們的市值必須達到 69,000 美元，然後才能「畢業」並在 Solana 的去中心化代幣交換服務 Raydium 上上市。

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In theory, these rules should help ensure fairness, prevent rugpulls and reduce bad actors, but even with these measures in place, most coins fail to make the grade.

理論上，這些規則應該有助於確保公平，防止拉動並減少不良行為者，但即使採取了這些措施，大多數代幣也未能達到標準。

On Aug. 9, a change to the Pump.fun launch mechanism removed the $2 creation fee, allowing anyone to create a new token for free. This immediately led to a spike in new memecoins, with most failing to reach the $69,000 mark.

8 月 9 日，Pump.fun 啟動機制發生了變化，取消了 2 美元的創建費用，允許任何人免費創建新的代幣。這立即導致新模因幣數量激增，其中大多數未能達到 69,000 美元大關。

Memecoin roulette

模因幣輪盤賭

Cointelegraph spoke to Adam, a memecoin trader who also maintains a Pump.fun dashboard on the analytics website Dune, to help understand the odds of winning on Pump.fun.

Cointelegraph 採訪了 Adam，一位 memecoin 交易員，他還在分析網站 Dune 上維護 Pump.fun 儀表板，以幫助了解在 Pump.fun 上獲勝的幾率。

With the probability of success already calculated at 0.12%, all that remained to work out is what kind of return investors could expect when picking a winner. Adam explained that buying $100 of a memecoin at a $5,000 market cap (MC) and exiting at $69,000 MC would return $1,380.

由於成功機率已計算為 0.12%，剩下的問題就是投資者在挑選獲勝者時可以期望獲得什麼樣的回報。 Adam 解釋說，以 5,000 美元的市值 (MC) 購買 100 美元的 memecoin，並以 69,000 美元的 MC 退出，將返回 1,380 美元。

Using this information, Cointelegraph conducted a comparative analysis of Pump.fun against American roulette, one of the most popular casino games.

利用這些信息，Cointelegraph 對 Pump.fun 與美國輪盤賭（最受歡迎的賭場遊戲之一）進行了比較分析。

Cointelegraph

聯合電訊報

The comparison shows that a $100 bet on a single number in American Roulette has a 2.6% chance of success (1 in 38) and pays out $3,600. In contrast, picking a successful memecoin has a much lower 0.12% chance of success (1 in 833) and only pays out $1,380.

比較顯示，在美式輪盤賭中對單一數字下注 100 美元，成功的幾率為 2.6%（三十八分之一），獎金為 3,600 美元。相比之下，選擇一個成功的 memecoin 的成功機會要低得多，只有 0.12%（833 分之一），並且只支付 1,380 美元。

At face value, the comparison isn’t favorable, but trading a stock and placing a bet are two different things.

從表面上看，這種比較並不有利，但交​​付股票和下注是兩件不同的事情。

“A token could also run far past $69,000 after graduation,” Adam told Cointelegraph.

「畢業後，代幣的價格也可能遠遠超過 69,000 美元，」Adam 告訴 Cointelegraph。

“But that’s becoming increasingly rare. Hence the frustration.”

「但這種情況正變得越來越罕見。因此感到沮喪。

Further research backs up Adam’s assertion on the rarity of successful coins.

進一步的研究支持了亞當關於成功硬幣的稀有性的斷言。

According to data shared by Newton Einstein on X, out of 1.7 million tokens launched on Pump.fun, only 41 maintained a market cap above $1 million for “multiple weeks,” while 15 maintained a market cap upward of $10 million for multiple weeks.

根據Newton Einstein 在X 上分享的數據，在Pump.fun 上發行的170 萬個代幣中，只有41 個代幣的市值在「數週」內保持在100 萬美元以上，而15 個代幣的市值在數週內保持在1000 萬美元以上。

Community anger spills over

社會憤怒蔓延

The frustration felt by the memecoin trading community is increasingly transparent. Putting the unfavorable comparisons with casinos aside, there are now those who are walking away from the market entirely.

模因幣交易社群感受到的挫敗感越來越明顯。拋開與賭場的不利比較不談，現在有些人完全離開了市場。

As X user Anon said, “I’m boycotting. Dead serious. Done trading pump fun and suggest you do the same. Laughing in our faces while they tap us dry with enabling a million rugs.”

正如 X 用戶 Anon 所說，「我正在抵制。嚴重死了。完成了交易帶來的樂趣並建議您也這樣做。當他們用一百萬塊地毯把我們拍乾時，我們卻在臉上大笑。

Crypto influencer Beanie said Pump.fun is by far the real winner, even as users lose out.

加密貨幣影響者 Beanie 表示 Pump.fun 是迄今為止真正的贏家，即使用戶輸了。

“No doubt Pump Fun and the insiders and professional ruggers that dominate the platform are this cycle’s financial winners,” they said. “By design it’s making a million dollars a day in fees while leaving a sea of dead bodies in its wake. Need a more fair launchpad.”

「毫無疑問，Pump Fun 以及主導該平台的內部人士和職業橄欖球運動員是本輪週期的財務贏家，」他們表示。 「按照設計，它每天可以賺取一百萬美元的費用，但隨之而來的卻是一片死屍。需要一個更公平的啟動平台。

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On Aug. 13, 5 days after changes to the launch mechanism were announced on X, Pump.fun founder Sapijiju belatedly issued a statement explaining the move.

8 月 13 日，也就是 X 上宣布改變啟動機制的 5 天后，Pump.fun 創始人 Sapijiju 姍姍來遲地發表了一份聲明，解釋了這一舉措。

“Our thesis is that the more coins/content that is

「我們的論點是，越多的硬幣/內容