Pump.fun：地球上最糟糕的赌场？

在代币发行平台 Pump.fun 上找到成功的 memecoin 进行投资的几率低于在赌场下注获胜的几率。

The odds of finding a successful memecoin to invest in on the token launch platform Pump.fun are lower than placing a winning bet in the casino. But experienced traders use strategies to try to improve their chances.

在代币发行平台 Pump.fun 上找到成功的 memecoin 进行投资的几率比在赌场中获胜的几率要低。但经验丰富的交易者会使用策略来尝试提高机会。

Experienced traders employ strategies to attempt to lower those odds and improve their chances, but recent social media activity suggests there is growing discontent among the ranks of degens as increasingly few investments turn a profit.

经验丰富的交易者会采取策略来试图降低赔率并提高机会，但最近的社交媒体活动表明，随着越来越少的投资能够盈利，德根们的不满情绪越来越大。

One X user even described Pump.fun as “the worst casino on Earth.”

一位 X 用户甚至将 Pump.fun 描述为“地球上最糟糕的赌场”。

In an Aug. 11 X post, memecoin trader Adam calculated that of the 16,357 tokens launched in the previous 24 hours, only 175 graduated to Raydium. Worse still, of those 175, only 19 remained above the $69,000 market cap threshold.

在 8 月 11 日的帖子中，memecoin 交易员 Adam 计算出，在过去 24 小时内推出的 16,357 个代币中，只有 175 个升级到 Raydium。更糟糕的是，在这 175 家公司中，只有 19 家的市值仍高于 69,000 美元。

As Adam said: “From launch to profitable graduation that’s 0.12%,” dubbing the recent rate of success as a “slaughterhouse.”

正如 Adam 所说：“从推出到盈利毕业，只有 0.12%”，他将最近的成功率称为“屠宰场”。

Source: Adam

资料来源：亚当

Why token launch services?

为什么要推出代币服务？

Token launch services such as Pump.fun and Basejump.pro aim to provide a safer environment for memecoin investors.

Pump.fun 和 Basejump.pro 等代币发行服务旨在为 memecoin 投资者提供更安全的环境。

Coins created on the Solana-based Pump.fun have no presale or team allocation, and they must reach a market cap of $69,000 before they are allowed to “graduate” to a listing on Solana’s decentralized token-swapping service Raydium.

在基于 Solana 的 Pump.fun 上创建的代币没有预售或团队分配，它们的市值必须达到 69,000 美元，然后才能“毕业”并在 Solana 的去中心化代币交换服务 Raydium 上上市。

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In theory, these rules should help ensure fairness, prevent rugpulls and reduce bad actors, but even with these measures in place, most coins fail to make the grade.

理论上，这些规则应该有助于确保公平，防止拉动并减少不良行为者，但即使采取了这些措施，大多数代币也未能达到标准。

On Aug. 9, a change to the Pump.fun launch mechanism removed the $2 creation fee, allowing anyone to create a new token for free. This immediately led to a spike in new memecoins, with most failing to reach the $69,000 mark.

8 月 9 日，Pump.fun 启动机制发生了变化，取消了 2 美元的创建费用，允许任何人免费创建新的代币。这立即导致新模因币数量激增，其中大多数未能达到 69,000 美元大关。

Memecoin roulette

模因币轮盘赌

Cointelegraph spoke to Adam, a memecoin trader who also maintains a Pump.fun dashboard on the analytics website Dune, to help understand the odds of winning on Pump.fun.

Cointelegraph 采访了 Adam，一位 memecoin 交易员，他还在分析网站 Dune 上维护着 Pump.fun 仪表板，以帮助了解在 Pump.fun 上获胜的几率。

With the probability of success already calculated at 0.12%, all that remained to work out is what kind of return investors could expect when picking a winner. Adam explained that buying $100 of a memecoin at a $5,000 market cap (MC) and exiting at $69,000 MC would return $1,380.

由于成功概率已计算为 0.12%，剩下的问题就是投资者在挑选获胜者时可以期望获得什么样的回报。 Adam 解释说，以 5,000 美元的市值 (MC) 购买 100 美元的 memecoin，并以 69,000 美元的 MC 退出，将返回 1,380 美元。

Using this information, Cointelegraph conducted a comparative analysis of Pump.fun against American roulette, one of the most popular casino games.

利用这些信息，Cointelegraph 对 Pump.fun 与美国轮盘赌（最受欢迎的赌场游戏之一）进行了比较分析。

Cointelegraph

联合电讯报

The comparison shows that a $100 bet on a single number in American Roulette has a 2.6% chance of success (1 in 38) and pays out $3,600. In contrast, picking a successful memecoin has a much lower 0.12% chance of success (1 in 833) and only pays out $1,380.

比较显示，在美式轮盘赌中对单个数字下注 100 美元，成功的几率为 2.6%（三十八分之一），奖金为 3,600 美元。相比之下，选择一个成功的 memecoin 的成功机会要低得多，只有 0.12%（833 分之一），并且只支付 1,380 美元。

At face value, the comparison isn’t favorable, but trading a stock and placing a bet are two different things.

从表面上看，这种比较并不有利，但交​​易股票和下注是两件不同的事情。

“A token could also run far past $69,000 after graduation,” Adam told Cointelegraph.

“毕业后，代币的价格也可能远远超过 69,000 美元，”Adam 告诉 Cointelegraph。

“But that’s becoming increasingly rare. Hence the frustration.”

“但这种情况正变得越来越罕见。因此感到沮丧。”

Further research backs up Adam’s assertion on the rarity of successful coins.

进一步的研究支持了亚当关于成功硬币的稀有性的断言。

According to data shared by Newton Einstein on X, out of 1.7 million tokens launched on Pump.fun, only 41 maintained a market cap above $1 million for “multiple weeks,” while 15 maintained a market cap upward of $10 million for multiple weeks.

根据 Newton Einstein 在 X 上分享的数据，在 Pump.fun 上发行的 170 万个代币中，只有 41 个代币的市值在“数周”内保持在 100 万美元以上，而 15 个代币的市值在数周内保持在 1000 万美元以上。

Community anger spills over

社会愤怒蔓延

The frustration felt by the memecoin trading community is increasingly transparent. Putting the unfavorable comparisons with casinos aside, there are now those who are walking away from the market entirely.

模因币交易社区感受到的挫败感越来越明显。抛开与赌场的不利比较不谈，现在有些人完全离开了市场。

As X user Anon said, “I’m boycotting. Dead serious. Done trading pump fun and suggest you do the same. Laughing in our faces while they tap us dry with enabling a million rugs.”

正如 X 用户 Anon 所说，“我正在抵制。严重死了。完成了交易带来的乐趣并建议您也这样做。当他们用一百万块地毯把我们拍干时，我们却在脸上大笑。”

Crypto influencer Beanie said Pump.fun is by far the real winner, even as users lose out.

加密货币影响者 Beanie 表示 Pump.fun 是迄今为止真正的赢家，即使用户输了。

“No doubt Pump Fun and the insiders and professional ruggers that dominate the platform are this cycle’s financial winners,” they said. “By design it’s making a million dollars a day in fees while leaving a sea of dead bodies in its wake. Need a more fair launchpad.”

“毫无疑问，Pump Fun 以及主导该平台的内部人士和职业橄榄球运动员是本轮周期的财务赢家，”他们表示。 “按照设计，它每天可以赚取一百万美元的费用，但随之而来的却是一片死尸。需要一个更公平的启动平台。”

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On Aug. 13, 5 days after changes to the launch mechanism were announced on X, Pump.fun founder Sapijiju belatedly issued a statement explaining the move.

8 月 13 日，也就是 X 上宣布改变启动机制的 5 天后，Pump.fun 创始人 Sapijiju 姗姗来迟地发表了一份声明，解释了这一举措。

“Our thesis is that the more coins/content that is

“我们的论点是，越多的硬币/内容