儘管預測市場押注比特幣的六月相對平靜，但深度的鏈上數據揭示了一個破紀錄的信念的故事

雖然預測市場正在押注比特幣的相對平靜的六月，但深度鏈數據揭示了一個長期持有人的創紀錄的信念的故事

Despite prediction markets betting on a relatively calm June for Bitcoin, deep on-chain data reveals a story of record-breaking conviction from long-term holders who are refusing to sell, signaling a powerful bullish undercurrent for the BTC market.

儘管預測市場對比特幣的六月相對平靜下注，但深度鏈數據揭示了一個拒絕出售的長期持有人的創紀錄的信念的故事，這表明BTC市場上有強大的看漲純平。

As Bitcoin hovers close to its all-time high, this disconnect between short-term expectations and long-term holder behavior is becoming a key focus for analysts.

隨著比特幣徘徊在其歷史最高水平上，短期期望與長期持有人行為之間的這種脫節正成為分析師的重點。

Data from prediction platform Polymarket shows that the most likely scenario for Bitcoin’s price by the end of June is $115,000, with a 61% probability. Traders are pricing this level as the most probable outcome, indicating confidence that BTC will maintain its current strength without an immediate breakout.

來自預測平台Polmoarket的數據表明，到6月底，比特幣價格最有可能的情況為115,000美元，概率為61％。交易者將這一水平定為最可能的結果，表明BTC將在沒有立即突破的情況下保持其當前力量。

Here’s a breakdown of the odds for various Bitcoin price ranges by June 30:

這是6月30日到6月30日的各種比特幣價格範圍的賠率的細分：

While traders are betting on a continuation of the upside momentum, they see Bitcoin trading within the $100K–$120K zone in June, with a significant portion betting on consolidation just around its all-time high.

雖然交易者押注了上升勢頭的延續，但他們看到比特幣交易在6月的$ 100K- $ 120K的區域內，其一部分在其歷史最高水平左右就進行了大量押注。

Analyst Sentiment: No Profit-Taking Yet, Bulls Still in Control

分析師的情緒：尚無盈利，公牛仍處於控制之中

Analysts like Crypto Dan observe that despite Bitcoin’s sharp recovery to $110K, whale behavior is atypical. In previous cycles, such levels were met with aggressive profit-taking, but this time, large holders seem unusually patient.

像加密貨幣丹（Crypto Dan）這樣的分析師觀察到，儘管比特幣急劇恢復到11萬美元，但鯨魚的行為是非典型的。在以前的周期中，這種水平得到了積極的利潤，但是這次，大持有人似乎異常耐心。

“Whales show no intention of taking profits at this price level and are likely to wait for higher prices,” Crypto Dan noted, hinting that the cycle top is still some way off.

Crypto Dan指出：“鯨魚不打算在此價格水平上獲利，很可能會等待更高的價格。”

This sentiment is shared by Darkfost, who points out that during prior cycle peaks, whale inflows to Binance exceeded $5 billion–$8 billion, which were usually followed by steep corrections. However, today, exchange inflows are hovering around $3 billion and decreasing, suggesting that whales are holding back in anticipation of even higher valuations.

Darkfost分享了這種情緒，他指出，在先前的周期高峰期，鯨魚流入超過50億美元 - 80億美元，通常會進行陡峭的校正。但是，如今，交流流入盤旋約30億美元，並減少，這表明鯨魚在預期更高的估值方面退縮了。

Glassnode Data Confirms Long-Term Holders Are Digesting the BTC Rally

玻璃節數據證實長期持有人正在消化BTC拉力賽

On-chain intelligence firm Glassnode’s data confirms this trend of bullish resilience. After hitting a new all-time high of $111K, Bitcoin briefly pulled back to $101K, but quickly rebounded to trade above $110.3K. Notably, this bounce occurred right at the short-term holder cost basis of $97.6K, highlighting a strong level of support.

鏈上情報公司GlassNode的數據證實了看漲韌性的趨勢。在達到了新的11.1萬美元的新歷史最高點之後，比特幣短暫地撤回了$ 101K，但很快反彈，超過$ 110.3k。值得注意的是，這種反彈發生在短期持有人成本基礎97.6萬美元的基礎上，強調了強大的支持水平。

Furthermore, Glassnode observed that long-term holders (LTHs) are realizing $930 million/day in profits, yet there are signs of them being slow to fully exit. Realized profits from holders of 1y+ BTC have plunged from $126 million to just $13.6 million, an 89% drop, indicating fewer mature investors are selling.

此外，GlassNode觀察到長期持有人（LTHS）的利潤為9.3億美元，但有跡象表明它們完全退出。 1Y+ BTC持有人的利潤已從1.26億美元跌至1360萬美元，下降了89％，表明成熟的投資者的銷售量較少。

Realized profit from 1y+ $BTC holders has dropped sharply from the peak of ~$126M to ~$13.6M now (24H SMAs). Despite a similar price level, seasoned investors are showing significantly less profit-taking pressure today than they did during the late-May peak. pic.twitter./s5c9BfAkmP— vx (@ventures__) May 25, 2024

從1y+ $ $ $ btc持有人那裡實現的利潤已經從估計約1.26億美元急劇下降到約1360萬美元（24小時SMA）。儘管價格水平相似，但經驗豐富的投資者今天的利潤壓力明顯少於五月晚期峰值。 pic.twitter./s5c9bfakmp- VX（@ventures__）2024年5月25日

Options markets are pricing in low volatility, possibly underestimating an impending volatility spike. While profit-taking is present, it is not outpacing demand.

期權市場的定價低波動率，可能低估了即將發生的波動率。儘管存在利潤，但這並不超過需求。