Despite Prediction Markets Betting on a Relatively Calm June for Bitcoin, Deep On-Chain Data Reveals a Story of Record-Breaking Conviction

While prediction markets are betting on a relatively calm June for Bitcoin, deep on-chain data reveals a story of record-breaking conviction from long-term holders

Despite prediction markets betting on a relatively calm June for Bitcoin, deep on-chain data reveals a story of record-breaking conviction from long-term holders who are refusing to sell, signaling a powerful bullish undercurrent for the BTC market.

As Bitcoin hovers close to its all-time high, this disconnect between short-term expectations and long-term holder behavior is becoming a key focus for analysts.

Data from prediction platform Polymarket shows that the most likely scenario for Bitcoin’s price by the end of June is $115,000, with a 61% probability. Traders are pricing this level as the most probable outcome, indicating confidence that BTC will maintain its current strength without an immediate breakout.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds for various Bitcoin price ranges by June 30:

While traders are betting on a continuation of the upside momentum, they see Bitcoin trading within the $100K–$120K zone in June, with a significant portion betting on consolidation just around its all-time high.

Analyst Sentiment: No Profit-Taking Yet, Bulls Still in Control

Analysts like Crypto Dan observe that despite Bitcoin’s sharp recovery to $110K, whale behavior is atypical. In previous cycles, such levels were met with aggressive profit-taking, but this time, large holders seem unusually patient.

“Whales show no intention of taking profits at this price level and are likely to wait for higher prices,” Crypto Dan noted, hinting that the cycle top is still some way off.

This sentiment is shared by Darkfost, who points out that during prior cycle peaks, whale inflows to Binance exceeded $5 billion–$8 billion, which were usually followed by steep corrections. However, today, exchange inflows are hovering around $3 billion and decreasing, suggesting that whales are holding back in anticipation of even higher valuations.

Glassnode Data Confirms Long-Term Holders Are Digesting the BTC Rally

On-chain intelligence firm Glassnode’s data confirms this trend of bullish resilience. After hitting a new all-time high of $111K, Bitcoin briefly pulled back to $101K, but quickly rebounded to trade above $110.3K. Notably, this bounce occurred right at the short-term holder cost basis of $97.6K, highlighting a strong level of support.

Furthermore, Glassnode observed that long-term holders (LTHs) are realizing $930 million/day in profits, yet there are signs of them being slow to fully exit. Realized profits from holders of 1y+ BTC have plunged from $126 million to just $13.6 million, an 89% drop, indicating fewer mature investors are selling.

Realized profit from 1y+ $BTC holders has dropped sharply from the peak of ~$126M to ~$13.6M now (24H SMAs). Despite a similar price level, seasoned investors are showing significantly less profit-taking pressure today than they did during the late-May peak. pic.twitter./s5c9BfAkmP— vx (@ventures__) May 25, 2024

Options markets are pricing in low volatility, possibly underestimating an impending volatility spike. While profit-taking is present, it is not outpacing demand.