尽管预测市场押注比特币的六月相对平静，但深度的链上数据揭示了一个破纪录的信念的故事

虽然预测市场正在押注比特币的相对平静的六月，但深度链数据揭示了一个长期持有人的创纪录的信念的故事

Despite prediction markets betting on a relatively calm June for Bitcoin, deep on-chain data reveals a story of record-breaking conviction from long-term holders who are refusing to sell, signaling a powerful bullish undercurrent for the BTC market.

尽管预测市场对比特币的六月相对平静下注，但深度链数据揭示了一个拒绝出售的长期持有人的创纪录的信念的故事，这表明BTC市场上有强大的看涨纯平。

As Bitcoin hovers close to its all-time high, this disconnect between short-term expectations and long-term holder behavior is becoming a key focus for analysts.

随着比特币徘徊在其历史最高水平上，短期期望与长期持有人行为之间的这种脱节正成为分析师的重点。

Data from prediction platform Polymarket shows that the most likely scenario for Bitcoin’s price by the end of June is $115,000, with a 61% probability. Traders are pricing this level as the most probable outcome, indicating confidence that BTC will maintain its current strength without an immediate breakout.

来自预测平台Polmoarket的数据表明，到6月底，比特币价格最有可能的情况为115,000美元，概率为61％。交易者将这一水平定为最可能的结果，表明BTC将在没有立即突破的情况下保持其当前力量。

Here’s a breakdown of the odds for various Bitcoin price ranges by June 30:

这是6月30日到6月30日的各种比特币价格范围的赔率的细分：

While traders are betting on a continuation of the upside momentum, they see Bitcoin trading within the $100K–$120K zone in June, with a significant portion betting on consolidation just around its all-time high.

虽然交易者押注了上升势头的延续，但他们看到比特币交易在6月的$ 100K- $ 120K的区域内，其一部分在其历史最高水平左右就进行了大量押注。

Analyst Sentiment: No Profit-Taking Yet, Bulls Still in Control

分析师的情绪：尚无盈利，公牛仍处于控制之中

Analysts like Crypto Dan observe that despite Bitcoin’s sharp recovery to $110K, whale behavior is atypical. In previous cycles, such levels were met with aggressive profit-taking, but this time, large holders seem unusually patient.

像加密货币丹（Crypto Dan）这样的分析师观察到，尽管比特币急剧恢复到11万美元，但鲸鱼的行为是非典型的。在以前的周期中，这种水平得到了积极的利润，但是这次，大持有人似乎异常耐心。

“Whales show no intention of taking profits at this price level and are likely to wait for higher prices,” Crypto Dan noted, hinting that the cycle top is still some way off.

Crypto Dan指出：“鲸鱼不打算在此价格水平上获利，很可能会等待更高的价格。”

This sentiment is shared by Darkfost, who points out that during prior cycle peaks, whale inflows to Binance exceeded $5 billion–$8 billion, which were usually followed by steep corrections. However, today, exchange inflows are hovering around $3 billion and decreasing, suggesting that whales are holding back in anticipation of even higher valuations.

Darkfost分享了这种情绪，他指出，在先前的周期高峰期，鲸鱼流入超过50亿美元 - 80亿美元，通常会进行陡峭的校正。但是，如今，交流流入盘旋约30亿美元，并减少，这表明鲸鱼在预期更高的估值方面退缩了。

Glassnode Data Confirms Long-Term Holders Are Digesting the BTC Rally

玻璃节数据证实长期持有人正在消化BTC拉力赛

On-chain intelligence firm Glassnode’s data confirms this trend of bullish resilience. After hitting a new all-time high of $111K, Bitcoin briefly pulled back to $101K, but quickly rebounded to trade above $110.3K. Notably, this bounce occurred right at the short-term holder cost basis of $97.6K, highlighting a strong level of support.

链上情报公司GlassNode的数据证实了看涨韧性的趋势。在达到了新的11.1万美元的新历史最高点之后，比特币短暂地撤回了$ 101K，但很快反弹，超过$ 110.3k。值得注意的是，这种反弹发生在短期持有人成本基础97.6万美元的基础上，强调了强大的支持水平。

Furthermore, Glassnode observed that long-term holders (LTHs) are realizing $930 million/day in profits, yet there are signs of them being slow to fully exit. Realized profits from holders of 1y+ BTC have plunged from $126 million to just $13.6 million, an 89% drop, indicating fewer mature investors are selling.

此外，GlassNode观察到长期持有人（LTHS）的利润为9.3亿美元，但有迹象表明它们完全退出。 1Y+ BTC持有人的利润已从1.26亿美元跌至1360万美元，下降了89％，表明成熟的投资者的销售量较少。

Realized profit from 1y+ $BTC holders has dropped sharply from the peak of ~$126M to ~$13.6M now (24H SMAs). Despite a similar price level, seasoned investors are showing significantly less profit-taking pressure today than they did during the late-May peak. pic.twitter./s5c9BfAkmP— vx (@ventures__) May 25, 2024

从1y+ $ $ $ btc持有人那里实现的利润已经从估计约1.26亿美元急剧下降到约1360万美元（24小时SMA）。尽管价格水平相似，但经验丰富的投资者今天的利润压力明显少于五月晚期峰值。 pic.twitter./s5c9bfakmp- VX（@ventures__）2024年5月25日

Options markets are pricing in low volatility, possibly underestimating an impending volatility spike. While profit-taking is present, it is not outpacing demand.

期权市场的定价低波动率，可能低估了即将发生的波动率。尽管存在利润，但这并不超过需求。