在市場結構變化中預測山寨賽季

FOMC會議以及本週的US-UK貿易協議談判後不久，Altcoins集會了，在過去24小時內以20％的以太坊價格泵領導。

Altcoins have shown a strong rally, especially after the FOMC meeting and the US-UK trade deal negotiations this week. Among the top crypto assets, Ethereum (ETH) has led the charge with a 20% price pump in the last 24 hours. Other big crypto assets like XRP, Solana (SOL), Dogecoin (DOGE), Cardano (ADA), among others, are also up 7-12% today, sparking discussion around the start of a new altseason.

AltCoins表現出強烈的集會，尤其是在FOMC會議和本週舉行的US-UK貿易協議談判之後。在最高的加密資產中，以太坊（ETH）在過去24小時內以20％的價格泵領導了費用。如今，其他大加密資產，例如XRP，Solana（Sol），Dogecoin（Doge），Cardano（Ada）等，如今也增長了7-12％，在新的Altseason開始時引發了討論。

While some technical charts are showing strength, market analysts have shared mixed opinions on the same.

儘管一些技術圖表顯示出強度，但市場分析師對此也分享了不同的意見。

Predicting Altcoin Season Amid Market Structure Shift

在市場結構變化中預測山寨賽季

Renowned crypto analyst Trader Tardigrade has predicted the return of altseason, signaling a substantial shift in the market structure. According to the analyst, the Total Crypto Market Cap excluding Bitcoin (TOTAL2) has transitioned from a downtrend marked by lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL) to an uptrend characterized by higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL).

著名的加密分析師Trader Tardigrade預測了Altseason的回歸，這表明市場結構發生了很大的轉變。根據分析師的說法，不包括比特幣（總2）的總加密市值已從以下高高（LH）和較低低點（LL）的下降趨勢轉變為以較高高（HH）和較高低點（HL）為特徵的上升趨勢。

Trader Tardigrade predicts that after a period of downtrend, the Total Crypto Market Cap (excluding Bitcoin) has transitioned into an uptrend. This shift occurs as the market breaks through the neckline of the head-and-shoulder bottom pattern, signaling a bullish reversal.

Trader Tardigrade預測，經過一段時間的下降趨勢，加密貨幣市值（不包括比特幣）已轉變為上升趨勢。這種轉變發生在市場突破頭和肩底圖案的領口，這表明了看漲的逆轉。

The analyst further added that this transition coincides with a divergence in the behavior of Bitcoin (BTC) dominance. After reaching highs above 74% in early 2023, BTC dominance has been on a downward trajectory, finally dropping below 40% for the first time in seven years.

分析師進一步補充說，這種過渡與比特幣（BTC）優勢行為的差異相吻合。在2023年初達到高於74％的高度之後，BTC的優勢一直處於下降軌跡，最終在七年來首次下跌了40％以下。

Macro investor Raoul Pal suggests that Bitcoin dominance may have reached its peak, based on observations of multiple technical indicators across various timeframes.

宏觀投資者拉爾·帕爾（Raoul Pal）認為，根據對各種時間表的多個技術指標的觀察，比特幣優勢可能已經達到了頂峰。

“I think BTC dominance topped today,” Pal stated. He observed that this dominance peak is noticeably lower than the 2021 and 2017 cycle highs, indicating a shift in market dynamics.

帕爾說：“我認為BTC的統治地位最高。”他觀察到，這種主導地位明顯低於2021和2017年周期高點，這表明市場動態發生了變化。

Pal described this scenario as the potential commencement of the “next phase of the Banana Zone,” suggesting a possible rotation into altcoins, following a period of underperformance compared to Bitcoin.

PAL將這種情況描述為“香蕉區的下一階段”的潛在開始，這表明與比特幣相比的表現不佳之後，可能會旋轉到山寨幣。

What Is Ethereum Rally Signalling?

什麼是以太坊拉力信號？

This time, Ethereum (ETH) has been leading from the front with 20% upside in the last 24 hours and now trading closer to $2,400. This has fueled optimism across the altcoin market, currently buzzing with high trading volumes and strong trading interest. Institutional players like World Liberty Financial and Abraxas Capital have reportedly been busy accumulating ETH.

這次，以太坊（ETH）在過去24小時內以20％的上升空間從前線領先，現在交易接近2,400美元。這激發了整個替代市場的樂觀情緒，目前以高交易量和強大的貿易興趣嗡嗡作響。據報導，像世界自由財務和阿布拉薩斯資本這樣的機構參與者一直在忙於積累ETH。

Popular crypto analyst Miles Deutscher stated that ETH pumping is the best possible scenario for altcoins, calling today’s ETH price pump as the biggest single-day move since November 2024. However, commenting on the altseason, Deutscher said:

受歡迎的加密分析師Miles Deutscher表示，ETH Pumping是Altcoins的最佳情況，稱當今的Eth Price Pump是2024年11月以來最大的單天舉動。但是，Deutscher表示，Deutscher表示：

“I definitely think there is room for upside here, especially on oversold alts. But, I’m not falling into the trap of believing it’s a full blown alt season. I’m net long, but not net stupid”.

“我絕對認為這裡有額外的空間，尤其是在超售替代方面。但是，我並不是陷入陷阱，因為我認為這是一個完整的Alt季節。我很長，但不是網絡愚蠢的。”

Going further, it will be interesting to see how things pan out. As BTC price continues to advance to its all-time high levels, ETH and other alts might join the bandwagon.

進一步，看看事情如何消失將很有趣。隨著BTC Price繼續晉升到歷史最高水平，ETH和其他Alts可能會加入潮流。