在市场结构变化中预测山寨赛季

FOMC会议以及本周的US-UK贸易协议谈判后不久，Altcoins集会了，在过去24小时内以20％的以太坊价格泵领导。

Altcoins have shown a strong rally, especially after the FOMC meeting and the US-UK trade deal negotiations this week. Among the top crypto assets, Ethereum (ETH) has led the charge with a 20% price pump in the last 24 hours. Other big crypto assets like XRP, Solana (SOL), Dogecoin (DOGE), Cardano (ADA), among others, are also up 7-12% today, sparking discussion around the start of a new altseason.

AltCoins表现出强烈的集会，尤其是在FOMC会议和本周举行的US-UK贸易协议谈判之后。在最高的加密资产中，以太坊（ETH）在过去24小时内以20％的价格泵领导了费用。如今，其他大加密资产，例如XRP，Solana（Sol），Dogecoin（Doge），Cardano（Ada）等，如今也增长了7-12％，在新的Altseason开始时引发了讨论。

While some technical charts are showing strength, market analysts have shared mixed opinions on the same.

尽管一些技术图表显示出强度，但市场分析师对此也分享了不同的意见。

Predicting Altcoin Season Amid Market Structure Shift

在市场结构变化中预测山寨赛季

Renowned crypto analyst Trader Tardigrade has predicted the return of altseason, signaling a substantial shift in the market structure. According to the analyst, the Total Crypto Market Cap excluding Bitcoin (TOTAL2) has transitioned from a downtrend marked by lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL) to an uptrend characterized by higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL).

著名的加密分析师Trader Tardigrade预测了Altseason的回归，这表明市场结构发生了很大的转变。根据分析师的说法，不包括比特币（总2）的总加密市值已从以下高高（LH）和较低低点（LL）的下降趋势转变为以较高高（HH）和较高低点（HL）为特征的上升趋势。

Trader Tardigrade predicts that after a period of downtrend, the Total Crypto Market Cap (excluding Bitcoin) has transitioned into an uptrend. This shift occurs as the market breaks through the neckline of the head-and-shoulder bottom pattern, signaling a bullish reversal.

Trader Tardigrade预测，经过一段时间的下降趋势，加密货币市值（不包括比特币）已转变为上升趋势。这种转变发生在市场突破头和肩底图案的领口，这表明了看涨的逆转。

The analyst further added that this transition coincides with a divergence in the behavior of Bitcoin (BTC) dominance. After reaching highs above 74% in early 2023, BTC dominance has been on a downward trajectory, finally dropping below 40% for the first time in seven years.

分析师进一步补充说，这种过渡与比特币（BTC）优势行为的差异相吻合。在2023年初达到高于74％的高度之后，BTC的优势一直处于下降轨迹，最终在七年来首次下跌了40％以下。

Macro investor Raoul Pal suggests that Bitcoin dominance may have reached its peak, based on observations of multiple technical indicators across various timeframes.

宏观投资者拉尔·帕尔（Raoul Pal）认为，根据对各种时间表的多个技术指标的观察，比特币优势可能已经达到了顶峰。

“I think BTC dominance topped today,” Pal stated. He observed that this dominance peak is noticeably lower than the 2021 and 2017 cycle highs, indicating a shift in market dynamics.

帕尔说：“我认为BTC的统治地位最高。”他观察到，这种主导地位明显低于2021和2017年周期高点，这表明市场动态发生了变化。

Pal described this scenario as the potential commencement of the “next phase of the Banana Zone,” suggesting a possible rotation into altcoins, following a period of underperformance compared to Bitcoin.

PAL将这种情况描述为“香蕉区的下一阶段”的潜在开始，这表明与比特币相比的表现不佳之后，可能会旋转到山寨币。

What Is Ethereum Rally Signalling?

什么是以太坊拉力信号？

This time, Ethereum (ETH) has been leading from the front with 20% upside in the last 24 hours and now trading closer to $2,400. This has fueled optimism across the altcoin market, currently buzzing with high trading volumes and strong trading interest. Institutional players like World Liberty Financial and Abraxas Capital have reportedly been busy accumulating ETH.

这次，以太坊（ETH）在过去24小时内以20％的上升空间从前线领先，现在交易接近2,400美元。这激发了整个替代市场的乐观情绪，目前以高交易量和强大的贸易兴趣嗡嗡作响。据报道，像世界自由财务和阿布拉萨斯资本这样的机构参与者一直在忙于积累ETH。

Popular crypto analyst Miles Deutscher stated that ETH pumping is the best possible scenario for altcoins, calling today’s ETH price pump as the biggest single-day move since November 2024. However, commenting on the altseason, Deutscher said:

受欢迎的加密分析师Miles Deutscher表示，ETH Pumping是Altcoins的最佳情况，称当今的Eth Price Pump是2024年11月以来最大的单日行动。但是，Deutscher表示：Deutscher表示：

“I definitely think there is room for upside here, especially on oversold alts. But, I’m not falling into the trap of believing it’s a full blown alt season. I’m net long, but not net stupid”.

“我绝对认为这里有额外的空间，尤其是在超售替代方面。但是，我并不是陷入陷阱，因为我认为这是一个完整的Alt季节。我很长，但不是网络愚蠢的。”

Going further, it will be interesting to see how things pan out. As BTC price continues to advance to its all-time high levels, ETH and other alts might join the bandwagon.

进一步，看看事情如何消失将很有趣。随着BTC Price继续晋升到历史最高水平，ETH和其他Alts可能会加入潮流。