Predicting Altcoin Season Amid Market Structure Shift

Altcoins have shown a strong rally, especially after the FOMC meeting and the US-UK trade deal negotiations this week. Among the top crypto assets, Ethereum (ETH) has led the charge with a 20% price pump in the last 24 hours. Other big crypto assets like XRP, Solana (SOL), Dogecoin (DOGE), Cardano (ADA), among others, are also up 7-12% today, sparking discussion around the start of a new altseason.

While some technical charts are showing strength, market analysts have shared mixed opinions on the same.

Predicting Altcoin Season Amid Market Structure Shift

Renowned crypto analyst Trader Tardigrade has predicted the return of altseason, signaling a substantial shift in the market structure. According to the analyst, the Total Crypto Market Cap excluding Bitcoin (TOTAL2) has transitioned from a downtrend marked by lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL) to an uptrend characterized by higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL).

Trader Tardigrade predicts that after a period of downtrend, the Total Crypto Market Cap (excluding Bitcoin) has transitioned into an uptrend. This shift occurs as the market breaks through the neckline of the head-and-shoulder bottom pattern, signaling a bullish reversal.

The analyst further added that this transition coincides with a divergence in the behavior of Bitcoin (BTC) dominance. After reaching highs above 74% in early 2023, BTC dominance has been on a downward trajectory, finally dropping below 40% for the first time in seven years.

Macro investor Raoul Pal suggests that Bitcoin dominance may have reached its peak, based on observations of multiple technical indicators across various timeframes.

“I think BTC dominance topped today,” Pal stated. He observed that this dominance peak is noticeably lower than the 2021 and 2017 cycle highs, indicating a shift in market dynamics.

Pal described this scenario as the potential commencement of the “next phase of the Banana Zone,” suggesting a possible rotation into altcoins, following a period of underperformance compared to Bitcoin.

What Is Ethereum Rally Signalling?

This time, Ethereum (ETH) has been leading from the front with 20% upside in the last 24 hours and now trading closer to $2,400. This has fueled optimism across the altcoin market, currently buzzing with high trading volumes and strong trading interest. Institutional players like World Liberty Financial and Abraxas Capital have reportedly been busy accumulating ETH.

Popular crypto analyst Miles Deutscher stated that ETH pumping is the best possible scenario for altcoins, calling today’s ETH price pump as the biggest single-day move since November 2024. However, commenting on the altseason, Deutscher said:

“I definitely think there is room for upside here, especially on oversold alts. But, I’m not falling into the trap of believing it’s a full blown alt season. I’m net long, but not net stupid”.

Going further, it will be interesting to see how things pan out. As BTC price continues to advance to its all-time high levels, ETH and other alts might join the bandwagon.