鮑威爾，利率和通貨膨脹：導航經濟繩索

杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）最近發表的講話使市場處於邊緣狀態，平衡通貨膨脹的關注與潛在的降低。美聯儲將如何應對這種微妙的情況？

Jerome Powell's juggling act with interest rates and inflation has the markets buzzing. His every word is scrutinized for clues about the Fed's next move. The big question: Can he tame inflation without throwing the economy into a nosedive?

杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）的雜耍行為與利率和通貨膨脹有關。他的每個單詞都經過審查，以獲取有關美聯儲下一步行動的線索。一個大問題：他可以在不將經濟歸功於鼻子的情況下馴服通貨膨脹嗎？

Powell's Balancing Act: Inflation vs. Labor Market

鮑威爾的平衡法：通貨膨脹與勞動力市場

Powell's recent speech at Jackson Hole highlighted a tricky situation. The labor market is cooling faster than expected, but inflation is proving stickier than a New York City summer. Monthly job creation has slowed, yet unemployment remains low. This unusual combo has the Fed scratching its head, as both labor supply and demand are contracting.

鮑威爾最近在傑克遜·霍爾（Jackson Hole）的講話強調了一個棘手的情況。勞動力市場的冷卻速度比預期的要快，但是通貨膨脹率比紐約市的夏季更粘。每月創造就業機會減慢了，但失業率仍然很低。由於勞動力供應和需求都在簽約，這種不尋常的組合使美聯儲撓頭。

Powell himself admitted, "This unusual situation suggests that downside risks to employment are rising." Translation: things could get dicey if layoffs spike.

鮑威爾本人承認：“這種不尋常的情況表明，就業的下行風險正在上升。”翻譯：如果裁員峰值，事情可能會變得陷入困境。

Inflation's Stubborn Streak

通貨膨脹的頑固條紋

Inflation isn't playing nice either. Consumer prices are up, and Powell pointed a finger at tariffs as a culprit. "Higher tariffs have begun to push up prices in some categories of goods," he noted. The Fed's keeping a close eye on these effects, but the timing and impact are still hazy.

通貨膨脹也不好。消費者價格上漲，鮑威爾將手指指向關稅是罪魁禍首。他指出：“更高的關稅已經開始推高某些類別的商品價格。”美聯儲密切關注這些效果，但時間和影響仍然是朦朧的。

Rate Cuts on the Horizon? Maybe...

降低速率？或許...

Despite the inflation worries, Powell hinted that the Fed might prioritize labor stability, potentially leading to lower interest rates later this year. While he stopped short of promising a rate cut at the next meeting, his tone was decidedly dovish. He acknowledged that a rate cut could be justified.

儘管有通貨膨脹的擔憂，但鮑威爾暗示美聯儲可能會優先考慮勞動力穩定，這可能會導致今年晚些時候的利率降低。儘管他停止在下一次會議上降低稅率，但他的語氣絕對很糟糕。他承認削減稅率是合理的。

Market Reaction: A Crypto Rollercoaster

市場反應：加密過山車

The markets went wild after Powell's speech. Bitcoin soared to around $117,200, a 4% jump. The crypto rally was fueled by a mix of dovish signals and increasing institutional adoption. Ether also surged, breaking its 2021 record. However, the crypto market remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic expectations. As one strategist pointed out, the synchronized rise in Bitcoin, equities, Treasury yields, and gold could amplify inflationary pressures.

鮑威爾講話後，市場瘋狂。比特幣飆升至117,200美元左右，增加了4％。加密集會是由骯髒的信號和越來越多的機構採用的混合所推動的。以太也猛增，打破了其2021年的記錄。但是，加密市場對更廣泛的宏觀經濟期望仍然敏感。正如一位戰略家指出的那樣，比特幣，股票，國庫產量和黃金的同步上升可能會擴大通貨膨脹壓力。

The Fed's Revised Framework: Flexibility is Key

美聯儲的修訂框架：靈活性是關鍵

The Fed's commitment to flexibility is crystal clear. The updated Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy removes prior references to the effective lower bound and reiterates a return to flexible inflation targeting. Powell emphasized that maintaining well-anchored inflation expectations is crucial for both price stability and maximum employment.

美聯儲對靈活性的承諾是清晰的。關於長期目標和貨幣政策策略的更新聲明刪除了有效下限的事先引用，並重申了恢復靈活的通貨膨脹目標。鮑威爾強調，維持良好的通貨膨脹期望對於價格穩定和最高就業至關重要。

The Road Ahead: Data-Driven Decisions

前面的道路：數據驅動的決定

Powell made it clear that the Fed will be closely watching economic data before making any decisions. This means further movements in digital asset prices are likely to remain tied to economic updates and the Fed's own communications.

鮑威爾明確表示，在做出任何決定之前，美聯儲將密切關注經濟數據。這意味著數字資產價格的進一步變動可能與美聯儲自己的通信有關。

Final Thoughts

最後的想法

So, what's the takeaway? Powell is walking a tightrope, balancing inflation and employment. The Fed's leaning towards flexibility, but everything hinges on the data. Buckle up, folks, it's going to be a wild ride! One thing's for sure: keeping an eye on Powell's next move is more gripping than the latest season of your favorite TV show.

那麼，收穫是什麼？鮑威爾（Powell）正在行走繩索，平衡通貨膨脹和就業。美聯儲傾向於靈活性，但一切都取決於數據。搭扣，伙計們，這將是一次瘋狂的旅程！可以肯定的是：關注鮑威爾的下一步行動比您最喜歡的電視節目的最新季節更加抓緊。