鲍威尔，利率和通货膨胀：导航经济绳索

杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）最近发表的讲话使市场处于边缘状态，平衡通货膨胀的关注与潜在的降低。美联储将如何应对这种微妙的情况？

Jerome Powell's juggling act with interest rates and inflation has the markets buzzing. His every word is scrutinized for clues about the Fed's next move. The big question: Can he tame inflation without throwing the economy into a nosedive?

杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）的杂耍行为与利率和通货膨胀有关。他的每个单词都经过审查，以获取有关美联储下一步行动的线索。一个大问题：他可以在不将经济归功于鼻子的情况下驯服通货膨胀吗？

Powell's Balancing Act: Inflation vs. Labor Market

鲍威尔的平衡法：通货膨胀与劳动力市场

Powell's recent speech at Jackson Hole highlighted a tricky situation. The labor market is cooling faster than expected, but inflation is proving stickier than a New York City summer. Monthly job creation has slowed, yet unemployment remains low. This unusual combo has the Fed scratching its head, as both labor supply and demand are contracting.

鲍威尔最近在杰克逊·霍尔（Jackson Hole）的讲话强调了一个棘手的情况。劳动力市场的冷却速度比预期的要快，但是通货膨胀率比纽约市的夏季更粘。每月创造就业机会减慢了，但失业率仍然很低。由于劳动力供应和需求都在签约，这种不寻常的组合使美联储挠头。

Powell himself admitted, "This unusual situation suggests that downside risks to employment are rising." Translation: things could get dicey if layoffs spike.

鲍威尔本人承认：“这种不寻常的情况表明，就业的下行风险正在上升。”翻译：如果裁员峰值，事情可能会变得陷入困境。

Inflation's Stubborn Streak

通货膨胀的顽固条纹

Inflation isn't playing nice either. Consumer prices are up, and Powell pointed a finger at tariffs as a culprit. "Higher tariffs have begun to push up prices in some categories of goods," he noted. The Fed's keeping a close eye on these effects, but the timing and impact are still hazy.

通货膨胀也不好。消费者价格上涨，鲍威尔将手指指向关税是罪魁祸首。他指出：“更高的关税已经开始推高某些类别的商品价格。”美联储密切关注这些效果，但时间和影响仍然是朦胧的。

Rate Cuts on the Horizon? Maybe...

降低速率？或许...

Despite the inflation worries, Powell hinted that the Fed might prioritize labor stability, potentially leading to lower interest rates later this year. While he stopped short of promising a rate cut at the next meeting, his tone was decidedly dovish. He acknowledged that a rate cut could be justified.

尽管有通货膨胀的担忧，但鲍威尔暗示美联储可能会优先考虑劳动力稳定，这可能会导致今年晚些时候的利率降低。尽管他停止在下一次会议上降低税率，但他的语气绝对很糟糕。他承认削减税率是合理的。

Market Reaction: A Crypto Rollercoaster

市场反应：加密过山车

The markets went wild after Powell's speech. Bitcoin soared to around $117,200, a 4% jump. The crypto rally was fueled by a mix of dovish signals and increasing institutional adoption. Ether also surged, breaking its 2021 record. However, the crypto market remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic expectations. As one strategist pointed out, the synchronized rise in Bitcoin, equities, Treasury yields, and gold could amplify inflationary pressures.

鲍威尔讲话后，市场疯狂。比特币飙升至117,200美元左右，增加了4％。加密集会是由肮脏的信号和越来越多的机构采用的混合所推动的。以太也猛增，打破了其2021年的记录。但是，加密市场对更广泛的宏观经济期望仍然敏感。正如一位战略家指出的那样，比特币，股票，国库产量和黄金的同步上升可能会扩大通货膨胀压力。

The Fed's Revised Framework: Flexibility is Key

美联储的修订框架：灵活性是关键

The Fed's commitment to flexibility is crystal clear. The updated Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy removes prior references to the effective lower bound and reiterates a return to flexible inflation targeting. Powell emphasized that maintaining well-anchored inflation expectations is crucial for both price stability and maximum employment.

美联储对灵活性的承诺是清晰的。关于长期目标和货币政策策略的更新声明删除了有效下限的事先引用，并重申了恢复灵活的通货膨胀目标。鲍威尔强调，维持良好的通货膨胀期望对于价格稳定和最高就业至关重要。

The Road Ahead: Data-Driven Decisions

前面的道路：数据驱动的决定

Powell made it clear that the Fed will be closely watching economic data before making any decisions. This means further movements in digital asset prices are likely to remain tied to economic updates and the Fed's own communications.

鲍威尔明确表示，在做出任何决定之前，美联储将密切关注经济数据。这意味着数字资产价格的进一步变动可能与美联储自己的通信有关。

Final Thoughts

最后的想法

So, what's the takeaway? Powell is walking a tightrope, balancing inflation and employment. The Fed's leaning towards flexibility, but everything hinges on the data. Buckle up, folks, it's going to be a wild ride! One thing's for sure: keeping an eye on Powell's next move is more gripping than the latest season of your favorite TV show.

那么，收获是什么？鲍威尔（Powell）正在行走绳索，平衡通货膨胀和就业。美联储倾向于灵活性，但一切都取决于数据。搭扣，伙计们，这将是一次疯狂的旅程！可以肯定的是：关注鲍威尔的下一步行动比您最喜欢的电视节目的最新季节更加抓紧。