以太坊的潛在低迷

以太坊目前的交易價格為 3,410 美元，在現貨以太幣交易所交易基金 (ETF) 推出後，其價值可能會跌至 2,400 美元。

Ethereum price today tumbled by nearly 3.5%, reaching lows of $3,410 after the launch of spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs). While some analysts remain bullish on the second-largest cryptocurrency, others, like Andrew Kang, co-founder and partner at Mechanism Capital, foresee a bearish outlook.

在以太坊現貨交易所交易基金（ETF）推出後，以太坊價格今天暴跌近 3.5%，觸及 3,410 美元的低點。雖然一些分析師仍然看好第二大加密貨幣，但其他人，如 Mechanism Capital 聯合創始人兼合夥人 Andrew Kang，則預計前景看跌。

Kang took to X (formerly Twitter) on June 23 to share his bearish outlook on Ether ETFs, highlighting several factors that could limit the cryptocurrency's upside potential post-launch. He also contrasted the institutional interest in Ether with the stronger attention paid to Bitcoin.

Kang 於 6 月 23 日在 X（前 Twitter）上分享了他對 Ether ETF 的看跌前景，強調了可能限制加密貨幣推出後上行潛力的幾個因素。他還將機構對以太幣的興趣與對比特幣的強烈關注進行了對比。

Andrew Kang bearish on Ether ETFs, sees limited upside for ETH price

Andrew Kang 看跌以太 ETF，認為 ETH 價格上漲空間有限

Among Kang's key arguments for the anticipated downturn are his observations on the institutional interest and cash flow into Ether ETFs.

康對預期經濟低迷的主要論點之一是他對機構興趣和以太坊 ETF 現金流的觀察。

“How much upside would an ETH ETF provide? I would argue not much,” stated Kang. He anticipates Ether's post-ETF launch price to range between $2,400 and $3,000. This forecast marks a significant shift from Ether's previous peaks, such as over $4,000 in March.

「ETH ETF 能提供多少上漲空間？我不會爭論太多，」康說。他預計以太坊 ETF 推出後的價格將在 2,400 美元至 3,000 美元之間。這項預測標誌著以太坊之前的高峰（例如 3 月超過 4,000 美元）發生了重大轉變。

Kang compared the expected inflows into spot Ether ETFs with those into spot Bitcoin ETFs. According to his analysis, the average daily notional value for spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States stood at $350 million. In contrast, the projections for spot Ether ETFs anticipate inflows of around $75 million to $125 million.

Kang 將現貨以太 ETF 的預期流入量與現貨比特幣 ETF 的預期流入量進行了比較。根據他的分析，美國現貨比特幣 ETF 的每日平均名目價值為 3.5 億美元。相較之下，現貨以太 ETF 預計資金流入約 7,500 萬至 1.25 億美元。

“I believe that the expectations of crypto natives are overinflated and disconnected from the true preferences of tradfi allocators. This implies that the ETF is more than priced in,” Kang elaborated on the market sentiment.

「我認為加密貨幣原住民的期望被過度誇大，並且與 tradfi 分配者的真實偏好脫節。這意味著 ETF 的定價已經超出了預期，」Kang 詳細闡述了市場情緒。

Kang's bearish outlook also extends to his projections for the ETH/BTC price ratio, which he believes could slide from 0.054 to as low as 0.035 over the next 12 months. However, he included a note of optimism in this Eth news, suggesting that a Bitcoin rally to $100,000 could potentially lift Ether to new all-time highs within the next 6-9 months.

Kang 的看跌前景也延伸到了他對 ETH/BTC 價格比的預測，他認為未來 12 個月內該價格比可能從 0.054 下滑至 0.035。然而，他在這篇以太幣新聞中表達了樂觀情緒，暗示比特幣漲至 10 萬美元可能會在未來 6-9 個月內將以太幣推升至歷史新高。

Not all analysts agree with Kang's bearish outlook on Ether ETFs. Some remain bullish on the second-largest cryptocurrency, anticipating a strong rally in the coming months.

並非所有分析師都同意 Kang 對以太 ETF 的悲觀前景。有些人仍然看好第二大加密貨幣，預計未來幾個月將出現強勁反彈。

Kang also pointed out the challenges Ethereum faces in its investment pitch, describing it as potentially an "overpriced tech stock." He highlighted the removal of staking from the proposed spot Ether ETFs as another factor that might deter investor interest.

康還指出了以太坊在投資宣傳中面臨的挑戰，並將其描述為潛在的「定價過高的科技股」。他強調，從擬議的以太坊 ETF 現貨中取消質押是另一個可能阻礙投資者興趣的因素。

Despite some institutional moves towards real-world asset tokenization on Ethereum, Kang remained skeptical about its impact on Ether's price.

儘管在以太坊上出現了一些現實世界資產代幣化的機構舉措，但康仍然對其對以太坊價格的影響持懷疑態度。