以太坊的潜在低迷

以太坊目前的交易价格为 3,410 美元，在现货以太币交易所交易基金 (ETF) 推出后，其价值可能会跌至 2,400 美元。

Ethereum price today tumbled by nearly 3.5%, reaching lows of $3,410 after the launch of spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs). While some analysts remain bullish on the second-largest cryptocurrency, others, like Andrew Kang, co-founder and partner at Mechanism Capital, foresee a bearish outlook.

在以太坊现货交易所交易基金（ETF）推出后，以太坊价格今天暴跌近 3.5%，触及 3,410 美元的低点。虽然一些分析师仍然看好第二大加密货币，但其他人，如 Mechanism Capital 联合创始人兼合伙人 Andrew Kang，则预计前景看跌。

Kang took to X (formerly Twitter) on June 23 to share his bearish outlook on Ether ETFs, highlighting several factors that could limit the cryptocurrency's upside potential post-launch. He also contrasted the institutional interest in Ether with the stronger attention paid to Bitcoin.

Kang 于 6 月 23 日在 X（前 Twitter）上分享了他对 Ether ETF 的看跌前景，强调了可能限制加密货币推出后上行潜力的几个因素。他还将机构对以太币的兴趣与对比特币的强烈关注进行了对比。

Andrew Kang bearish on Ether ETFs, sees limited upside for ETH price

Andrew Kang 看跌以太 ETF，认为 ETH 价格上涨空间有限

Among Kang's key arguments for the anticipated downturn are his observations on the institutional interest and cash flow into Ether ETFs.

康对预期经济低迷的主要论据之一是他对机构兴趣和以太坊 ETF 现金流的观察。

“How much upside would an ETH ETF provide? I would argue not much,” stated Kang. He anticipates Ether's post-ETF launch price to range between $2,400 and $3,000. This forecast marks a significant shift from Ether's previous peaks, such as over $4,000 in March.

“ETH ETF 能提供多少上涨空间？我不会争论太多，”康说。他预计以太坊 ETF 推出后的价格将在 2,400 美元至 3,000 美元之间。这一预测标志着以太坊之前的峰值（例如 3 月份超过 4,000 美元）发生了重大转变。

Kang compared the expected inflows into spot Ether ETFs with those into spot Bitcoin ETFs. According to his analysis, the average daily notional value for spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States stood at $350 million. In contrast, the projections for spot Ether ETFs anticipate inflows of around $75 million to $125 million.

Kang 将现货以太 ETF 的预期流入量与现货比特币 ETF 的预期流入量进行了比较。根据他的分析，美国现货比特币 ETF 的日均名义价值为 3.5 亿美元。相比之下，现货以太 ETF 预计资金流入约为 7500 万至 1.25 亿美元。

“I believe that the expectations of crypto natives are overinflated and disconnected from the true preferences of tradfi allocators. This implies that the ETF is more than priced in,” Kang elaborated on the market sentiment.

“我认为加密货币原住民的期望被过度夸大，并且与 tradfi 分配者的真实偏好脱节。这意味着 ETF 的定价已经超出了预期，”Kang 详细阐述了市场情绪。

Kang's bearish outlook also extends to his projections for the ETH/BTC price ratio, which he believes could slide from 0.054 to as low as 0.035 over the next 12 months. However, he included a note of optimism in this Eth news, suggesting that a Bitcoin rally to $100,000 could potentially lift Ether to new all-time highs within the next 6-9 months.

Kang 的看跌前景还延伸到了他对 ETH/BTC 价格比的预测，他认为未来 12 个月内该价格比可能从 0.054 下滑至 0.035。然而，他在这篇以太币新闻中表达了乐观情绪，暗示比特币涨至 10 万美元可能会在未来 6-9 个月内将以太币推升至历史新高。

Not all analysts agree with Kang's bearish outlook on Ether ETFs. Some remain bullish on the second-largest cryptocurrency, anticipating a strong rally in the coming months.

并非所有分析师都同意 Kang 对以太 ETF 的悲观前景。一些人仍然看好第二大加密货币，预计未来几个月将出现强劲反弹。

Kang also pointed out the challenges Ethereum faces in its investment pitch, describing it as potentially an "overpriced tech stock." He highlighted the removal of staking from the proposed spot Ether ETFs as another factor that might deter investor interest.

康还指出了以太坊在投资宣传中面临的挑战，并将其描述为潜在的“定价过高的科技股”。他强调，从拟议的以太坊 ETF 现货中取消质押是另一个可能阻碍投资者兴趣的因素。

Despite some institutional moves towards real-world asset tokenization on Ethereum, Kang remained skeptical about its impact on Ether's price.

尽管在以太坊上出现了一些现实世界资产代币化的机构举措，但康仍然对其对以太坊价格的影响持怀疑态度。