如今，Polkadot（加密：DOT）加密貨幣正在咆哮

如今，Polkadot（加密：DOT）加密貨幣正在咆哮。 Web3基金會的本地硬幣從4月9日至5月12日上漲了51.3％。

The price of Polkadot (CRYPTO:DOT) cryptocurrency has risen by 51.3% from April 9 to May 12.

從4月9日至5月12日，Polkadot（加密：DOT）的加密貨幣價格上漲了51.3％。

While this is a noteworthy gain, it pales in comparison to the coin's 52.6% decline from December's 52-week peak. Moreover, the coin is trading at more than 90% below Polkadot's all-time highs, which were reached just before the inflation panic began in November 2021.

儘管這是一個值得注意的收益，但與12月52週的高峰相比，硬幣的下降了52.6％的幅度相比，它顯得蒼白。此外，硬幣的交易價格低於波爾卡多（Polkadot）的歷史最高點，這是在通貨膨脹恐慌始於2021年11月開始之前達到的。

Is Polkadot stuck in a long-term downtrend, or is this crucial Web3 component poised for a big comeback?

Polkadot是否陷入了長期的下降趨勢，還是這種關鍵的Web3組件有望為重大復出而準備？

Polkadot's Bull Case

波爾卡多的公牛案

In a Web3 world, social media networks will play a less dominant role online.

在Web3世界中，社交媒體網絡將在網上扮演較不占主導地位的角色。

Content creators will have greater control over the text, music, movies, and other media they produce, with fewer intermediaries skimming a portion of the original content. Ordinary people will enjoy more direct control over how they consume content, safeguard their privacy, and manage personal finances. Again, everything will operate faster, with lower fees, and blockchain-based technology will perform tasks currently handled by centralized banks.

內容創作者將對他們產生的文本，音樂，電影和其他媒體有更大的控制權，而中介機構卻少了一部分原始內容。普通百姓將對他們如何消耗內容，維護其隱私和管理個人理財的方式更直接地控制。同樣，一切都將更快地運行，費用較低，基於區塊鏈的技術將執行集中式銀行目前處理的任務。

Polkadot was designed to play several critical roles in this conversion of online interaction systems. It features a complex and powerful transaction ledger with many supporting data lists, capable of communicating with numerous other blockchain systems. The upcoming Polkadot 2.0 version will introduce a much faster and more complete facility for executing smart contracts. In recent demonstrations, Polkadot co-founder Gavin Wood showed the classic Doom game running at full speed on a pre-release version of this JAM virtual machine system, operating on his laptop. The full implementation will have access to thousands of high-powered server systems in a global network.

Polkadot旨在在這種在線交互系統的轉換中扮演多個關鍵角色。它具有復雜而強大的交易分類帳，並具有許多支持數據列表，能夠與許多其他區塊鏈系統進行通信。即將推出的Polkadot 2.0版本將為執行智能合約提供更快，更完整的設施。在最近的示威中，Polkadot聯合創始人加文·伍德（Gavin Wood）展示了經典的毀滅戰士遊戲，該遊戲全速運行在此果醬虛擬機系統的預發行版中，該系統在他的筆記本電腦上運行。完整的實現將可以訪問全球網絡中數千個高功率服務器系統。

I can only imagine what developers might create with this blockchain-based supercomputer. This should be more than sufficient to launch the Web3 revolution and take it to new heights. That would be welcome news for Polkadot investors, as the functional coin is expected to gain more value with increased real-world usage.

我只能想像開發人員使用此基於區塊鏈的超級計算機可能會創建什麼。這應該足以啟動Web3革命並將其提升到新的高度。對於Polkadot投資者來說，這將是可喜的消息，因為預計功能性硬幣將隨著現實世界的增加而獲得更多價值。

Why Polkadot Could Struggle

為什麼波爾卡多能夠掙扎

Some early Polkadot investors are losing hope regarding the proposed Web3 revolution.

一些早期的Polkadot投資者對擬議的Web3 Revolution失去了希望。

The vision for Web3 has been in the works for over a decade. Gavin Wood coined the term in 2014, but the fundamental ideas had been under discussion for years before that. In the rapidly evolving world of technology, that's a vast amount of time. Where are all the game-changing Web3 apps and platforms that will transform the online landscape?

Web3的願景已經進行了十多年。加文·伍德（Gavin Wood）在2014年創造了這個詞，但是在此之前已經討論過的基本思想。在迅速發展的技術世界中，這是大量的時間。改變遊戲的Web3應用程序和平台將在哪裡改變在線格局？

And assuming the Web3 revolution does materialize, Polkadot faces fierce competition in powering the technical platforms behind those privacy-focused apps. To put it in perspective, Sony brought the first Betamax video tapes to market a year ahead of JVC's VHS alternative, and Betamax had the backing of Japan's regulators at the time. However, VHS won the "video wars" of the 1970s. The favored industry standard doesn't always prevail in the open market. In this instance, alternative development frameworks from Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) or Avalanche (CRYPTO: AVAX) could steal Polkadot's Web3 throne. If they can't replicate every Polkadot function today, their backers could catch up as their ecosystems mature.

假設Web3 Revolution確實實現了，Polkadot在為這些以隱私為中心的應用程序背後的技術平台提供動力方面面臨激烈的競爭。從角度來看，索尼將第一個Betamax錄像帶帶到了JVC的VHS替代方案之前的一年，而Betamax當時得到了日本監管機構的支持。但是，VHS贏得了1970年代的“視頻戰爭”。受歡迎的行業標準並不總是在公開市場上佔上風。在這種情況下，來自Solana（Crypto：Sol）或Avalanche（Crypto：Avax）的替代開發框架可能會竊取Polkadot的Web3王位。如果他們無法複製當今的每個波爾卡多功能，他們的支持者可以隨著生態系統的成熟而趕上。

With the slow rollout of Web3 and the rising tide of potential head-to-head rivals, it's no surprise to see Polkadot's coin price floundering.

隨著Web3的緩慢推出以及潛在的正面競爭對手的上升潮流，看到Polkadot的硬幣價格陷入困境也就不足為奇了。

What Is This Coin Really Worth?

這枚硬幣真的值得什麼？

Pinning fair values on investments is both an art and a science. Getting it right involves several assumptions, some informed guesswork, and a bit of luck. The world's best investors don't get every call right, and they rarely try to set exact price targets for the long term.

將公平價值固定在投資上既是藝術，又是一門科學。正確正確地涉及幾個假設，一些知情的猜測和一些運氣。世界上最好的投資者並不能正確接聽所有電話，他們很少嘗試將長期的確切價格目標設定。

And Polkadot's market value depends on two key factors:

Polkadot的市場價值取決於兩個關鍵因素：

The first component has been slow to take off. Few apps are built around the Polkadot framework today, and the cryptocurrency is still in its early stages from the real-world usage perspective. Daily usage volumes have been declining in recent months. In the last 30 days, Polkadot fees averaged $750 per day. There aren't many money-generating transactions happening yet. The JAM-based Polkadot 2.0 system is designed to handle 1 million transactions per second, not a couple of hundred per day.

第一個組件的起飛很慢。當今的Polkadot框架圍繞著很少的應用程序，從現實世界的使用角度來看，加密貨幣仍處於早期階段。近幾個月來，每日使用量一直在下降。在過去的30天中，Polkadot費用平均每天$ 750。還沒有太多的貨幣交易發生。基於JAM的Polkadot 2.0系統旨在處理每秒100萬筆交易，而不是每天幾百人。

The daily trading volume is much higher, at around $360 million per 24 hours. In other words, Polkadot is acting more like a speculative investment than a real-world business tool so far. The coin is essentially worthless in this real-world utility perspective. Polkadot usage just isn't a money-making operation yet.

每日交易量要高得多，約為每24小時3.6億美元。換句話說，迄今為止，Polkadot的行為更像是投機性投資，而不是現實世界中的商業工具。從這個現實世界的實用性角度來看，硬幣本質上一文不值。 Polkadot的使用尚未賺錢。

But that's a short-sighted projection. I'm convinced that the Web3 era will come someday. Will it be during the next economic recession, with the launch of the first truly useful decentralized finance app

但這是一個短視的投影。我堅信Web3時代有一天會出現。在下一次經濟衰退期間，會推出第一個真正有用的分散金融應用程序