如今，Polkadot（加密：DOT）加密货币正在咆哮

如今，Polkadot（加密：DOT）加密货币正在咆哮。 Web3基金会的本地硬币从4月9日至5月12日上涨了51.3％。

The price of Polkadot (CRYPTO:DOT) cryptocurrency has risen by 51.3% from April 9 to May 12.

从4月9日至5月12日，Polkadot（加密：DOT）的加密货币价格上涨了51.3％。

While this is a noteworthy gain, it pales in comparison to the coin's 52.6% decline from December's 52-week peak. Moreover, the coin is trading at more than 90% below Polkadot's all-time highs, which were reached just before the inflation panic began in November 2021.

尽管这是一个值得注意的收益，但与12月52周的高峰相比，硬币的下降了52.6％的幅度相比，它显得苍白。此外，硬币的交易价格低于波尔卡多（Polkadot）的历史最高点，这是在通货膨胀恐慌始于2021年11月开始之前达到的。

Is Polkadot stuck in a long-term downtrend, or is this crucial Web3 component poised for a big comeback?

Polkadot是否陷入了长期的下降趋势，还是这种关键的Web3组件有望为重大复出而准备？

Polkadot's Bull Case

波尔卡多的公牛案

In a Web3 world, social media networks will play a less dominant role online.

在Web3世界中，社交媒体网络将在网上扮演较不占主导地位的角色。

Content creators will have greater control over the text, music, movies, and other media they produce, with fewer intermediaries skimming a portion of the original content. Ordinary people will enjoy more direct control over how they consume content, safeguard their privacy, and manage personal finances. Again, everything will operate faster, with lower fees, and blockchain-based technology will perform tasks currently handled by centralized banks.

内容创作者将对他们产生的文本，音乐，电影和其他媒体有更大的控制权，而中介机构却少了一部分原始内容。普通百姓将对他们如何消耗内容，维护其隐私和管理个人理财的方式更直接地控制。同样，一切都将更快地运行，费用较低，基于区块链的技术将执行集中式银行目前处理的任务。

Polkadot was designed to play several critical roles in this conversion of online interaction systems. It features a complex and powerful transaction ledger with many supporting data lists, capable of communicating with numerous other blockchain systems. The upcoming Polkadot 2.0 version will introduce a much faster and more complete facility for executing smart contracts. In recent demonstrations, Polkadot co-founder Gavin Wood showed the classic Doom game running at full speed on a pre-release version of this JAM virtual machine system, operating on his laptop. The full implementation will have access to thousands of high-powered server systems in a global network.

Polkadot旨在在这种在线交互系统的转换中扮演多个关键角色。它具有复杂而强大的交易分类帐，并具有许多支持数据列表，能够与许多其他区块链系统进行通信。即将推出的Polkadot 2.0版本将为执行智能合约提供更快，更完整的设施。在最近的示威中，Polkadot联合创始人加文·伍德（Gavin Wood）展示了经典的毁灭战士游戏，该游戏全速运行在此果酱虚拟机系统的预发行版中，该系统在他的笔记本电脑上运行。完整的实现将可以访问全球网络中数千个高功率服务器系统。

I can only imagine what developers might create with this blockchain-based supercomputer. This should be more than sufficient to launch the Web3 revolution and take it to new heights. That would be welcome news for Polkadot investors, as the functional coin is expected to gain more value with increased real-world usage.

我只能想象开发人员使用此基于区块链的超级计算机可能会创建什么。这应该足以启动Web3革命并将其提升到新的高度。对于Polkadot投资者来说，这将是可喜的消息，因为预计功能性硬币将随着现实世界的增加而获得更多价值。

Why Polkadot Could Struggle

为什么波尔卡多能够挣扎

Some early Polkadot investors are losing hope regarding the proposed Web3 revolution.

一些早期的Polkadot投资者对拟议的Web3 Revolution失去了希望。

The vision for Web3 has been in the works for over a decade. Gavin Wood coined the term in 2014, but the fundamental ideas had been under discussion for years before that. In the rapidly evolving world of technology, that's a vast amount of time. Where are all the game-changing Web3 apps and platforms that will transform the online landscape?

Web3的愿景已经进行了十多年。加文·伍德（Gavin Wood）在2014年创造了这个词，但是在此之前已经讨论过的基本思想。在迅速发展的技术世界中，这是大量的时间。改变游戏的Web3应用程序和平台将在哪里改变在线格局？

And assuming the Web3 revolution does materialize, Polkadot faces fierce competition in powering the technical platforms behind those privacy-focused apps. To put it in perspective, Sony brought the first Betamax video tapes to market a year ahead of JVC's VHS alternative, and Betamax had the backing of Japan's regulators at the time. However, VHS won the "video wars" of the 1970s. The favored industry standard doesn't always prevail in the open market. In this instance, alternative development frameworks from Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) or Avalanche (CRYPTO: AVAX) could steal Polkadot's Web3 throne. If they can't replicate every Polkadot function today, their backers could catch up as their ecosystems mature.

假设Web3 Revolution确实实现了，Polkadot在为这些以隐私为中心的应用程序背后的技术平台提供动力方面面临激烈的竞争。从角度来看，索尼将第一个Betamax录像带带到了JVC的VHS替代方案之前的一年，而Betamax当时得到了日本监管机构的支持。但是，VHS赢得了1970年代的“视频战争”。受欢迎的行业标准并不总是在公开市场上占上风。在这种情况下，来自Solana（Crypto：Sol）或Avalanche（Crypto：Avax）的替代开发框架可能会窃取Polkadot的Web3王位。如果他们无法复制当今的每个波尔卡多功能，他们的支持者可以随着生态系统的成熟而赶上。

With the slow rollout of Web3 and the rising tide of potential head-to-head rivals, it's no surprise to see Polkadot's coin price floundering.

随着Web3的缓慢推出以及潜在的正面竞争对手的上升潮流，看到Polkadot的硬币价格陷入困境也就不足为奇了。

What Is This Coin Really Worth?

这枚硬币真的值得什么？

Pinning fair values on investments is both an art and a science. Getting it right involves several assumptions, some informed guesswork, and a bit of luck. The world's best investors don't get every call right, and they rarely try to set exact price targets for the long term.

将公平价值固定在投资上既是艺术，又是一门科学。正确正确地涉及几个假设，一些知情的猜测和一些运气。世界上最好的投资者并不能正确接听所有电话，他们很少尝试将长期的确切价格目标设定。

And Polkadot's market value depends on two key factors:

Polkadot的市场价值取决于两个关键因素：

The first component has been slow to take off. Few apps are built around the Polkadot framework today, and the cryptocurrency is still in its early stages from the real-world usage perspective. Daily usage volumes have been declining in recent months. In the last 30 days, Polkadot fees averaged $750 per day. There aren't many money-generating transactions happening yet. The JAM-based Polkadot 2.0 system is designed to handle 1 million transactions per second, not a couple of hundred per day.

第一个组件的起飞很慢。当今的Polkadot框架围绕着很少的应用程序，从现实世界的使用角度来看，加密货币仍处于早期阶段。近几个月来，每日使用量一直在下降。在过去的30天中，Polkadot费用平均每天$ 750。还没有太多的货币交易发生。基于JAM的Polkadot 2.0系统旨在处理每秒100万笔交易，而不是每天几百人。

The daily trading volume is much higher, at around $360 million per 24 hours. In other words, Polkadot is acting more like a speculative investment than a real-world business tool so far. The coin is essentially worthless in this real-world utility perspective. Polkadot usage just isn't a money-making operation yet.

每日交易量要高得多，约为每24小时3.6亿美元。换句话说，迄今为止，Polkadot的行为更像是投机性投资，而不是现实世界中的商业工具。从这个现实世界的实用性角度来看，硬币本质上一文不值。 Polkadot的使用尚未赚钱。

But that's a short-sighted projection. I'm convinced that the Web3 era will come someday. Will it be during the next economic recession, with the launch of the first truly useful decentralized finance app

但这是一个短视的投影。我坚信Web3时代有一天会出现。在下一次经济衰退期间，会推出第一个真正有用的分散金融应用程序