PlanB將一條通往$ 400,000比特幣（BTC）的路徑，但有些人看的小說比預測更多

比特幣（BTC）最近的集會至104,000美元，使公牛隊恢復了駕駛員的席位。

As Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $104,000, PlanB is already mapping a path to $400,000, though some see more fiction than forecast.

隨著比特幣（BTC）的交易價格為104,000美元，Planb已經將一條路徑映射到40萬美元，儘管有些小說比預測更多。

Bitcoin’s recent rally to $104,000 has bulls back in the driver’s seat. At least that’s the takeaway from PlanB, the pseudonymous analyst behind the Stock-to-Flow model. In a new video, he outlines why the party might just be getting started — and how the next stop could be $400,000.

比特幣最近的集會至104,000美元，使公牛恢復了駕駛員的席位。至少這是Planb的收穫，Planb是股票與流量模型背後的化名分析師。在新視頻中，他概述了為什麼聚會可能只是開始的原因 - 下一站的方式可能為40萬美元。

PlanB pointed out that the market ended up staging a V-shaped recovery after all. Back in late March, Bitcoin was around $82,000. By the end of April, it had jumped to $94,000, and as of press time, it’s sitting at $104,000. To him, that wasn’t just a rebound, and it looked like a clear sign the bull market was back.

Planb指出，市場最終畢竟進行了V形恢復。早在3月下旬，比特幣約為82,000美元。到4月底，它已躍升至94,000美元，截至發稿時，它的價格為104,000美元。對他來說，這不僅是反彈，而且看起來像是一個明顯的跡象，牛市又回來了。

He’s sticking with his long-term model. The S2F average for the 2024-2028 halving cycle is $500,000. That number may sound far-fetched, especially today, but PlanB isn’t fazed, as he’s saying the market is only “one year into the cycle, with three years to go.”

他堅持自己的長期模型。 2024-2028減半週期的S2F平均值為500,000美元。這個數字聽起來可能很牽強，尤其是今天，但Planb並沒有陷入困境，因為他說市場僅在周期中一年，還有三年的時間。 ”

Why so bullish

為什麼如此看好

A big piece of the puzzle is Bitcoin’s relative scarcity. As PlanB reminds, Bitcoin is “twice as scarce as gold,” noting, though, that gold is “worth ten times more.” That, to him, screams undervaluation.

難題的很大一部分是比特幣的相對稀缺性。正如Planb提醒的那樣，比特幣“比黃金稀缺兩倍”，但指出黃金的價值是“價值十倍”。對他來說，尖叫著低估了。

The chart that gives him confidence? His market cycle model. Created in 2022, it showed no “yellow” distribution signal when Bitcoin was at $82,000, a phase that usually precedes a bear market. Instead, the red signals he saw suggested bull continuation, calling it a “very weird, long, flat bull market.”

給他信心的圖表嗎？他的市場週期模型。當比特幣為82,000美元時，它創建於2022年，沒有顯示“黃色”分銷信號，通常是熊市的階段。取而代之的是，他看到的紅色信號提示了牛的延續，稱其為“非常奇怪，長，平坦的牛市”。

The analyst also referred to RSI, or Relative Strength Index, saying that right now, the metric is at 66, which is above average and rising.

分析師還提到RSI或相對強度指數，稱目前的指標為66，高於平均水平和上升。

“I think we’ll see 80+ RSI months again — at least four of them — just like in the bull markets of 2021, 2020, 2017, and 2013. […] If we’re at an average price of $100,000 now… that would already bring us into the $400,000 area.”

“我認為我們將再次看到80多個RSI月（至少四個），就像在2021、2020、2017和2013年的牛市一樣。

PlanB

計劃

Some agree, with caveats

有些人同意

Vugar Usi Zade, COO at Bitget, noted in an interview with crypto.news that PlanB’s $400,000 Bitcoin forecast leans on two pillars: a multi-year “four-phase” cycle and the S2F framework. He admitted that the timeline matches prior post-halving cycles, saying the market now sits “near month 12-15 of the current cycle — early but not alarmingly so.”

Bitget的首席運營官Vugar Usi Zade在接受Crypto.news的採訪中指出，Planb的40萬美元比特幣預測依靠兩個支柱：一個多年的“四相”週期和S2F框架。他承認，時間表與先前的後期週期相匹配，稱該市場現在是“當前週期的12-15個月份，但並不令人震驚。”

“PlanB’s $400k Bitcoin forecast leans on two pillars: a multi-year ‘four-phase’ cycle and the S2F framework. The time-frame aligns with past trends but macro/market-structure changes bring far more uncertainty than in 2013 or 2017.”

“ Planb的$ 400K比特幣預測依靠兩個支柱：一個多年的“四個相”週期和S2F框架。時間框架與過去的趨勢保持一致，但宏觀/市場結構的變化帶來的不確定性遠比2013年或2017年。”

Usi Zade

But this time, it’s not just retail and hype. There’s institutional capital, structured derivatives, and macro risks to consider.

但是這次，不僅是零售和炒作。需要考慮的機構資本，結構化衍生品和宏風險。

“Unlike prior cycles, institutional adoption, regulated derivatives and on-chain analytics now dampen volatility and may extend cycles rather than truncate them. But we must factor in potential Fed rate pivots and geopolitical flare-ups. Such ‘tail risk' events can rapidly truncate cycles. Also, greater correlation to equities means Bitcoin may not behave like a stand-alone ‘digital gold’ for optimal price-level performance. Cycle timing becomes fuzzier when broader risk assets are selling off.”

“與先前的循環不同，機構採用，受監管的衍生物和鏈上分析現在降低了波動性，可能會延長周期而不是截斷它們。但是，我們必須考慮潛在的飼料速率樞紐和地緣政治爆發。此類``尾巴''的質量均可迅速折斷，而不是像公平一樣的較高的折斷。當更廣泛的風險資產出售時，循環時機變得更加模糊。”

Usi Zade

He also points out the move to $104,000 may not be entirely organic as April’s cooler inflation and dovish Fed tones triggered a broad “risk-on” rebound. According to Usi Zade, much of the move to $104,000 “could simply reflect short-covering and equity correlation.”

他還指出，由於四月的涼爽通貨膨脹和折磨的色調引發了廣泛的“風險啟用”反彈，因此轉移至104,000美元可能不是有機的。根據Usi Zade的說法，大部分搬遷到104,000美元“可以簡單地反映出短期覆蓋和權益相關性”。

That makes the $110,000-$115,000 level critical as a failure there could see “rapid retracement toward $88,000-$92,000,” Usi Zade suggests.

Usi Zade建議，這使得$ 110,000- $ 115,000的關鍵至關重要。

As for the $400,000 target, the Bitget COO is even more cautious. He explains that while halving events do cut

至於40萬美元的目標，Bitget COO更加謹慎。他解釋說，在減半的過程中確實減少了