PlanB Maps a Path to $400,000 Bitcoin (BTC), But Some See More Fiction Than Forecast

Bitcoin's (BTC) recent rally to $104,000 has put bulls back in the driver's seat.

As Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $104,000, PlanB is already mapping a path to $400,000, though some see more fiction than forecast.

Bitcoin’s recent rally to $104,000 has bulls back in the driver’s seat. At least that’s the takeaway from PlanB, the pseudonymous analyst behind the Stock-to-Flow model. In a new video, he outlines why the party might just be getting started — and how the next stop could be $400,000.

PlanB pointed out that the market ended up staging a V-shaped recovery after all. Back in late March, Bitcoin was around $82,000. By the end of April, it had jumped to $94,000, and as of press time, it’s sitting at $104,000. To him, that wasn’t just a rebound, and it looked like a clear sign the bull market was back.

He’s sticking with his long-term model. The S2F average for the 2024-2028 halving cycle is $500,000. That number may sound far-fetched, especially today, but PlanB isn’t fazed, as he’s saying the market is only “one year into the cycle, with three years to go.”

Why so bullish

A big piece of the puzzle is Bitcoin’s relative scarcity. As PlanB reminds, Bitcoin is “twice as scarce as gold,” noting, though, that gold is “worth ten times more.” That, to him, screams undervaluation.

The chart that gives him confidence? His market cycle model. Created in 2022, it showed no “yellow” distribution signal when Bitcoin was at $82,000, a phase that usually precedes a bear market. Instead, the red signals he saw suggested bull continuation, calling it a “very weird, long, flat bull market.”

The analyst also referred to RSI, or Relative Strength Index, saying that right now, the metric is at 66, which is above average and rising.

“I think we’ll see 80+ RSI months again — at least four of them — just like in the bull markets of 2021, 2020, 2017, and 2013. […] If we’re at an average price of $100,000 now… that would already bring us into the $400,000 area.”

PlanB

Some agree, with caveats

Vugar Usi Zade, COO at Bitget, noted in an interview with crypto.news that PlanB’s $400,000 Bitcoin forecast leans on two pillars: a multi-year “four-phase” cycle and the S2F framework. He admitted that the timeline matches prior post-halving cycles, saying the market now sits “near month 12-15 of the current cycle — early but not alarmingly so.”

“PlanB’s $400k Bitcoin forecast leans on two pillars: a multi-year ‘four-phase’ cycle and the S2F framework. The time-frame aligns with past trends but macro/market-structure changes bring far more uncertainty than in 2013 or 2017.”

Usi Zade

But this time, it’s not just retail and hype. There’s institutional capital, structured derivatives, and macro risks to consider.

“Unlike prior cycles, institutional adoption, regulated derivatives and on-chain analytics now dampen volatility and may extend cycles rather than truncate them. But we must factor in potential Fed rate pivots and geopolitical flare-ups. Such ‘tail risk' events can rapidly truncate cycles. Also, greater correlation to equities means Bitcoin may not behave like a stand-alone ‘digital gold’ for optimal price-level performance. Cycle timing becomes fuzzier when broader risk assets are selling off.”

Usi Zade

He also points out the move to $104,000 may not be entirely organic as April’s cooler inflation and dovish Fed tones triggered a broad “risk-on” rebound. According to Usi Zade, much of the move to $104,000 “could simply reflect short-covering and equity correlation.”

That makes the $110,000-$115,000 level critical as a failure there could see “rapid retracement toward $88,000-$92,000,” Usi Zade suggests.

As for the $400,000 target, the Bitget COO is even more cautious. He explains that while halving events do cut