PlanB将一条通往$ 400,000比特币（BTC）的路径，但有些人看的小说比预测更多

比特币（BTC）最近的集会至104,000美元，使公牛队恢复了驾驶员的席位。

As Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $104,000, PlanB is already mapping a path to $400,000, though some see more fiction than forecast.

随着比特币（BTC）的交易价格为104,000美元，Planb已经将一条路径映射到40万美元，尽管有些小说比预测更多。

Bitcoin’s recent rally to $104,000 has bulls back in the driver’s seat. At least that’s the takeaway from PlanB, the pseudonymous analyst behind the Stock-to-Flow model. In a new video, he outlines why the party might just be getting started — and how the next stop could be $400,000.

比特币最近的集会至104,000美元，使公牛恢复了驾驶员的席位。至少这是Planb的收获，Planb是股票与流量模型背后的化名分析师。在新视频中，他概述了为什么聚会可能只是开始的原因 - 下一站的方式可能为40万美元。

PlanB pointed out that the market ended up staging a V-shaped recovery after all. Back in late March, Bitcoin was around $82,000. By the end of April, it had jumped to $94,000, and as of press time, it’s sitting at $104,000. To him, that wasn’t just a rebound, and it looked like a clear sign the bull market was back.

Planb指出，市场最终毕竟进行了V形恢复。早在3月下旬，比特币约为82,000美元。到4月底，它已跃升至94,000美元，截至发稿时，它的价格为104,000美元。对他来说，这不仅是反弹，而且看起来像是一个明显的迹象，牛市又回来了。

He’s sticking with his long-term model. The S2F average for the 2024-2028 halving cycle is $500,000. That number may sound far-fetched, especially today, but PlanB isn’t fazed, as he’s saying the market is only “one year into the cycle, with three years to go.”

他坚持自己的长期模型。 2024-2028减半周期的S2F平均值为500,000美元。这个数字听起来可能很牵强，尤其是今天，但Planb并没有陷入困境，因为他说市场仅在周期中一年，还有三年的时间。”

Why so bullish

为什么如此看好

A big piece of the puzzle is Bitcoin’s relative scarcity. As PlanB reminds, Bitcoin is “twice as scarce as gold,” noting, though, that gold is “worth ten times more.” That, to him, screams undervaluation.

难题的很大一部分是比特币的相对稀缺性。正如Planb提醒的那样，比特币“比黄金稀缺两倍”，但指出黄金的价值是“价值十倍”。对他来说，尖叫着低估了。

The chart that gives him confidence? His market cycle model. Created in 2022, it showed no “yellow” distribution signal when Bitcoin was at $82,000, a phase that usually precedes a bear market. Instead, the red signals he saw suggested bull continuation, calling it a “very weird, long, flat bull market.”

给他信心的图表吗？他的市场周期模型。当比特币为82,000美元时，它创建于2022年，没有显示“黄色”分销信号，通常是熊市的阶段。取而代之的是，他看到的红色信号提示了牛的延续，称其为“非常奇怪，长，平坦的牛市”。

The analyst also referred to RSI, or Relative Strength Index, saying that right now, the metric is at 66, which is above average and rising.

分析师还提到RSI或相对强度指数，称目前的指标为66，高于平均水平和上升。

“I think we’ll see 80+ RSI months again — at least four of them — just like in the bull markets of 2021, 2020, 2017, and 2013. […] If we’re at an average price of $100,000 now… that would already bring us into the $400,000 area.”

“我认为我们将再次看到80多个RSI月（至少四个），就像在2021、2020、2017和2013年的牛市一样。

PlanB

计划

Some agree, with caveats

有些人同意

Vugar Usi Zade, COO at Bitget, noted in an interview with crypto.news that PlanB’s $400,000 Bitcoin forecast leans on two pillars: a multi-year “four-phase” cycle and the S2F framework. He admitted that the timeline matches prior post-halving cycles, saying the market now sits “near month 12-15 of the current cycle — early but not alarmingly so.”

Bitget的首席运营官Vugar Usi Zade在接受Crypto.news的采访中指出，Planb的40万美元比特币预测依靠两个支柱：一个多年的“四相”周期和S2F框架。他承认，时间表与先前的后期周期相匹配，称该市场现在是“当前周期的12-15个月份，但并不令人震惊。”

“PlanB’s $400k Bitcoin forecast leans on two pillars: a multi-year ‘four-phase’ cycle and the S2F framework. The time-frame aligns with past trends but macro/market-structure changes bring far more uncertainty than in 2013 or 2017.”

“ Planb的$ 400K比特币预测依靠两个支柱：一个多年的“四个相”周期和S2F框架。时间框架与过去的趋势保持一致，但宏观/市场结构的变化带来的不确定性远比2013年或2017年。”

Usi Zade

But this time, it’s not just retail and hype. There’s institutional capital, structured derivatives, and macro risks to consider.

但是这次，不仅是零售和炒作。需要考虑的机构资本，结构化衍生品和宏风险。

“Unlike prior cycles, institutional adoption, regulated derivatives and on-chain analytics now dampen volatility and may extend cycles rather than truncate them. But we must factor in potential Fed rate pivots and geopolitical flare-ups. Such ‘tail risk' events can rapidly truncate cycles. Also, greater correlation to equities means Bitcoin may not behave like a stand-alone ‘digital gold’ for optimal price-level performance. Cycle timing becomes fuzzier when broader risk assets are selling off.”

“与先前的循环不同，机构采用，受监管的衍生物和链上分析现在降低了波动性，可能会延长周期而不是截断它们。但是，我们必须考虑潜在的饲料速率枢纽和地缘政治爆发。此类``尾巴''的质量均可迅速折断，而不是像公平一样的较高的折断。当更广泛的风险资产出售时，循环时机变得更加模糊。”

Usi Zade

He also points out the move to $104,000 may not be entirely organic as April’s cooler inflation and dovish Fed tones triggered a broad “risk-on” rebound. According to Usi Zade, much of the move to $104,000 “could simply reflect short-covering and equity correlation.”

他还指出，由于四月的凉爽通货膨胀和折磨的色调引发了广泛的“风险启用”反弹，因此转移至104,000美元可能不是有机的。根据Usi Zade的说法，大部分搬迁到104,000美元“可以简单地反映出短期覆盖和权益相关性”。

That makes the $110,000-$115,000 level critical as a failure there could see “rapid retracement toward $88,000-$92,000,” Usi Zade suggests.

Usi Zade建议，这使得$ 110,000- $ 115,000的关键至关重要。

As for the $400,000 target, the Bitget COO is even more cautious. He explains that while halving events do cut

至于40万美元的目标，Bitget COO更加谨慎。他解释说，在减半的过程中确实减少了