2024 年比特幣 (BTC) 的前景如何？

與 1 月開始交易的現貨比特幣 (BTC) 交易所交易基金相關的需求今年為加密貨幣提供了支撐。

Bitcoin prices have risen more than 30% this year, helped in part by demand for exchange-traded funds that hold the leading cryptocurrency. But bitcoin prices have recently pulled back from record highs hit earlier this year.

今年，比特幣價格上漲了 30% 以上，部分原因是對持有這種領先加密貨幣的交易所交易基金的需求。但比特幣價格最近已從今年稍早創下的歷史高點回落。

Bitcoin prices slipped below $57,000 in late-afternoon trading Friday, after rising above $73,000 in March. So what’s the outlook for the rest of 2024? Bullish investors say further demand for crypto-focused ETFs could push prices higher. But other issues loom on the horizon.

繼 3 月上漲至 73,000 美元以上之後，週五下午交易中比特幣價格跌破 57,000 美元。那麼 2024 年剩餘時間的前景如何？看漲的投資者表示，以加密貨幣為主的 ETF 的進一步需求可能會推高價格。但其他問題也即將出現。

Demand for Bitcoin, Ether ETFs Could Lift Crypto

對比特幣、以太幣 ETF 的需求可能會提振加密貨幣

Demand related to the spot bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds that began trading in January has supported the cryptocurrency this year. Bulls say that effect hasn’t played out yet.

與 1 月開始交易的現貨比特幣 (BTC) 交易所交易基金相關的需求今年為加密貨幣提供了支撐。公牛隊表示這種效應還沒發揮出來。

The new ETFs have recorded net inflows of more than $14.4 billion, according to Farside Investors. Most flows into bitcoin ETFs, which hold the currency, currently come from self-directed investors, and market watchers believe further demand could arrive as financial advisors become less wary of recommending crypto products to clients, boosting bitcoin itself.

據 Farside Investors 稱，新 ETF 的淨流入量已超過 144 億美元。目前，流入持有該貨幣的比特幣ETF 的大部分資金來自自主投資者，市場觀察家認為，隨著財務顧問不再那麼謹慎地向客戶推薦加密產品，從而提振比特幣本身，進一步的需求可能會到來。

"We also don't see many institutions like pensions or endowments involved with the ETFs yet,” said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart. “To me that means there are definitely areas of potential growth in demand."

彭博資訊分析師 James Seyffart 表示：“我們還沒有看到養老金或捐贈基金等許多機構參與 ETF。對我來說，這意味著肯定存在需求潛在增長的領域。”

Investors broadly expect ETFs based on ether (ETH) to come to market this year: The Securities and Exchange Commission is expected to approve individual ETF applications by the end of the summer. That could boost demand for cryptocurrencies.

投資者普遍預計基於以太坊 (ETH) 的 ETF 將在今年上市：美國證券交易委員會預計將在夏末之前批准個別 ETF 申請。這可能會增加對加密貨幣的需求。

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan estimates inflows of $15 billion into ether ETFs within their first 18 months. Seyffart, meanwhile, expects them to capture 20% to 25% of what the bitcoin funds attracted during their first months.

Bitwise 資訊長 Matt Hougan 估計，在以太坊 ETF 上市的前 18 個月內，將有 150 億美元的資金流入。同時，Seyffart 預計他們將獲得比特幣基金在最初幾個月吸引的資金的 20% 到 25%。

"We do not believe Ethereum ETFs will create as big of a splash as the bitcoin ETFs, which broke many different records with regard to their flows, assets, and trading volumes," Seyffart told Investopedia.

Seyffart 告訴 Investopedia：“我們認為以太坊 ETF 不會像比特幣 ETF 那樣引起巨大轟動，比特幣 ETF 在流量、資產和交易量方面打破了許多不同的記錄。”

Growing demand for the ETFs and the underlying bitcoin could mean higher prices, especially as the supply for the cryptocurrency approaches its cap of 21 million.

對 ETF 和基礎比特幣的需求不斷增長可能意味著價格上漲，特別是當加密貨幣的供應量接近 2,100 萬的上限時。

The Election – and Other Issues to Watch

選舉——以及其他值得關注的議題

Other topics to watch in crypto this year include:

今年加密貨幣領域值得關注的其他主題包括：

The presidential election. Donald Trump has come out as more supportive of cryptocurrency than he was during his presidential administration. President Joe Biden’s administration has been seen as supporting stricter regulation, though some industry watchers interpreted a recent decision to not file charges related to Ethereum 2.0 as a sign of an evolving outlook.

總統選舉。唐納德·特朗普比他在總統執政期間更加支持加密貨幣。喬·拜登總統的政府被視為支持更嚴格的監管，儘管一些行業觀察家將最近不提出與以太坊 2.0 相關指控的決定解釋為前景不斷變化的跡象。

"I would put the odds of ‘clarity’ before the election at 0%, and I think if there is a legislative framework, it would come next year at the earliest," said Delphi Ventures General Counsel Sarah Brennan.

德爾福創投公司總法律顧問薩拉·布倫南 (Sarah Brennan) 表示：“我認為選舉前‘澄清’的可能性為 0%，而且我認為，如果有立法框架，最早會在明年出台。”

The after-effects of the bitcoin halving: Bitcoin halvings—in which the amount of new bitcoin generated roughly every 10 minutes is cut in half—have historically had a positive impact on its price, according to analytics firm CCData, for periods running from about 370 days to almost 550.

比特幣減半的後果：根據分析公司 CCData 的數據，比特幣減半——大約每 10 分鐘產生的新比特幣數量減少一半——歷史上對其價格產生了積極影響，持續時間約為370 天到近550 天。

The last halving took place about six months ago, but it differed from prior instances because bitcoin had rallied so much ahead of it. Analysts at Deutsche Bank and JPMorgan said that much of the expected price increase was already baked in ahead of the latest halving.

上一次減半發生在大約六個月前，但與之前的情況不同，因為比特幣在此之前已經上漲了很多。德意志銀行和摩根大通的分析師表示，預期的價格上漲在很大程度上已經在最近的減半之前出現。

While recent volatility may support that theory, bitcoin bulls think that the downtrend is temporary.

雖然最近的波動可能支持這個理論，但比特幣多頭認為下降趨勢是暫時的。

"It’s normal for a price dip like this to happen after a halving—halvings are incredibly bullish, but bull markets don’t start until typically several months later—for fundamental reasons," Caitlin Long, Founder and CEO of CustodiaBank, said in an X post late June.

CustodiaBank 創辦人兼執行長凱特琳·朗(Caitlin Long) 在一份報告中表示：「減半後出現這樣的價格下跌是正常的——減半是令人難以置信的看漲，但牛市通常要到幾個月後才會開始，這是出於根本原因。

Mt. Gox distributions: Failed bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox began distributing billions of dollars in bitcoin to former customers this month. The ultimate effect of that increased supply, which began to hit markets on Friday, is uncertain, with some seeing it as bearish and others saying the issue is overblown.

Mt. Gox 分發：失敗的比特幣交易所 Mt. Gox 本月開始向前客戶分發數十億美元的比特幣。週五開始影響市場的供應增加的最終影響尚不確定，有些人認為這是看跌的，有些人則認為這個問題被誇大了。