2024 年比特币 (BTC) 的前景如何？

与 1 月份开始交易的现货比特币 (BTC) 交易所交易基金相关的需求今年为加密货币提供了支撑。

Bitcoin prices have risen more than 30% this year, helped in part by demand for exchange-traded funds that hold the leading cryptocurrency. But bitcoin prices have recently pulled back from record highs hit earlier this year.

今年，比特币价格上涨了 30% 以上，部分原因是对持有这种领先加密货币的交易所交易基金的需求。但比特币价格最近已从今年早些时候创下的历史高位回落。

Bitcoin prices slipped below $57,000 in late-afternoon trading Friday, after rising above $73,000 in March. So what’s the outlook for the rest of 2024? Bullish investors say further demand for crypto-focused ETFs could push prices higher. But other issues loom on the horizon.

继 3 月份上涨至 73,000 美元以上之后，周五下午交易中比特币价格跌破 57,000 美元。那么 2024 年剩余时间的前景如何？看涨的投资者表示，对以加密货币为主的 ETF 的进一步需求可能会推高价格。但其他问题也即将出现。

Demand for Bitcoin, Ether ETFs Could Lift Crypto

对比特币、以太坊 ETF 的需求可能会提振加密货币

Demand related to the spot bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds that began trading in January has supported the cryptocurrency this year. Bulls say that effect hasn’t played out yet.

与 1 月份开始交易的现货比特币 (BTC) 交易所交易基金相关的需求今年为加密货币提供了支撑。公牛队表示这种效应还没有发挥出来。

The new ETFs have recorded net inflows of more than $14.4 billion, according to Farside Investors. Most flows into bitcoin ETFs, which hold the currency, currently come from self-directed investors, and market watchers believe further demand could arrive as financial advisors become less wary of recommending crypto products to clients, boosting bitcoin itself.

据 Farside Investors 称，新 ETF 的净流入量已超过 144 亿美元。目前，流入持有该货币的比特币 ETF 的大部分资金来自自主投资者，市场观察人士认为，随着财务顾问不再那么谨慎地向客户推荐加密产品，从而提振比特币本身，进一步的需求可能会到来。

"We also don't see many institutions like pensions or endowments involved with the ETFs yet,” said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart. “To me that means there are definitely areas of potential growth in demand."

彭博资讯分析师 James Seyffart 表示：“我们还没有看到养老金或捐赠基金等许多机构参与 ETF。对我来说，这意味着肯定存在需求潜在增长的领域。”

Investors broadly expect ETFs based on ether (ETH) to come to market this year: The Securities and Exchange Commission is expected to approve individual ETF applications by the end of the summer. That could boost demand for cryptocurrencies.

投资者普遍预计基于以太坊 (ETH) 的 ETF 将在今年上市：美国证券交易委员会预计将在夏末之前批准个别 ETF 申请。这可能会增加对加密货币的需求。

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan estimates inflows of $15 billion into ether ETFs within their first 18 months. Seyffart, meanwhile, expects them to capture 20% to 25% of what the bitcoin funds attracted during their first months.

Bitwise 首席信息官 Matt Hougan 估计，在以太坊 ETF 上市的前 18 个月内，将有 150 亿美元的资金流入。与此同时，Seyffart 预计他们将获得比特币基金在最初几个月吸引的资金的 20% 到 25%。

"We do not believe Ethereum ETFs will create as big of a splash as the bitcoin ETFs, which broke many different records with regard to their flows, assets, and trading volumes," Seyffart told Investopedia.

Seyffart 告诉 Investopedia：“我们认为以太坊 ETF 不会像比特币 ETF 那样引起巨大轰动，比特币 ETF 在流量、资产和交易量方面打破了许多不同的记录。”

Growing demand for the ETFs and the underlying bitcoin could mean higher prices, especially as the supply for the cryptocurrency approaches its cap of 21 million.

对 ETF 和基础比特币的需求不断增长可能意味着价格上涨，特别是当加密货币的供应量接近 2100 万的上限时。

The Election – and Other Issues to Watch

选举——以及其他值得关注的问题

Other topics to watch in crypto this year include:

今年加密货币领域值得关注的其他主题包括：

The presidential election. Donald Trump has come out as more supportive of cryptocurrency than he was during his presidential administration. President Joe Biden’s administration has been seen as supporting stricter regulation, though some industry watchers interpreted a recent decision to not file charges related to Ethereum 2.0 as a sign of an evolving outlook.

总统选举。唐纳德·特朗普比他在总统执政期间更加支持加密货币。乔·拜登总统的政府被视为支持更严格的监管，尽管一些行业观察人士将最近不提出与以太坊 2.0 相关的指控的决定解读为前景不断变化的迹象。

"I would put the odds of ‘clarity’ before the election at 0%, and I think if there is a legislative framework, it would come next year at the earliest," said Delphi Ventures General Counsel Sarah Brennan.

德尔福风险投资公司总法律顾问萨拉·布伦南 (Sarah Brennan) 表示：“我认为选举前‘澄清’的可能性为 0%，而且我认为，如果有立法框架，最早会在明年出台。”

The after-effects of the bitcoin halving: Bitcoin halvings—in which the amount of new bitcoin generated roughly every 10 minutes is cut in half—have historically had a positive impact on its price, according to analytics firm CCData, for periods running from about 370 days to almost 550.

比特币减半的后果：根据分析公司 CCData 的数据，比特币减半——大约每 10 分钟产生的新比特币数量减少一半——历史上对其价格产生了积极影响，持续时间约为370 天到近 550 天。

The last halving took place about six months ago, but it differed from prior instances because bitcoin had rallied so much ahead of it. Analysts at Deutsche Bank and JPMorgan said that much of the expected price increase was already baked in ahead of the latest halving.

上一次减半发生在大约六个月前，但与之前的情况不同，因为比特币在此之前已经上涨了很多。德意志银行和摩根大通的分析师表示，预期的价格上涨在很大程度上已经在最近的减半之前出现。

While recent volatility may support that theory, bitcoin bulls think that the downtrend is temporary.

虽然最近的波动可能支持这一理论，但比特币多头认为下降趋势是暂时的。

"It’s normal for a price dip like this to happen after a halving—halvings are incredibly bullish, but bull markets don’t start until typically several months later—for fundamental reasons," Caitlin Long, Founder and CEO of CustodiaBank, said in an X post late June.

CustodiaBank 创始人兼首席执行官凯特琳·朗 (Caitlin Long) 在一份报告中表示：“减半后出现这样的价格下跌是正常的——减半是令人难以置信的看涨，但牛市通常要到几个月后才会开始，这是出于根本原因。” X 六月下旬发布。

Mt. Gox distributions: Failed bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox began distributing billions of dollars in bitcoin to former customers this month. The ultimate effect of that increased supply, which began to hit markets on Friday, is uncertain, with some seeing it as bearish and others saying the issue is overblown.

Mt. Gox 分发：失败的比特币交易所 Mt. Gox 本月开始向前客户分发数十亿美元的比特币。周五开始影响市场的供应增加的最终影响尚不确定，一些人认为这是看跌的，另一些人则认为这个问题被夸大了。