Netflix的《高溫法》：其崇高的估值能否倖存嗎？

Netflix是流媒體巨頭，但其高估值使其成為一個冒險的賭注。流媒的國王即將倒下嗎？

Netflix, the king of streaming, is walking a high-wire act. Its valuation is sky-high, and the question is, can it maintain this lofty position? Let's dive into the numbers and see if Netflix can avoid a fall.

Netflix是流媒體的國王，正在高溫表演。它的估值是高高的，問題是，它可以維持這個崇高的位置嗎？讓我們研究數字，看看Netflix是否可以避免跌倒。

Subscriber Growth: Slowing Down, But Still Strategic

訂戶增長：放慢速度，但仍戰略性

Netflix hit 301.6 million subscribers by late 2024. While that's a 16% annual increase, the company stopped reporting quarterly subscriber numbers in Q1 2025. Why? Because growth is slowing, especially in the U.S.

Netflix到2024年末達到3.016億訂戶。雖然這是每年16％的增長，但該公司停止了第1季度2025年第1季度的季度用戶數量。為什麼？因為增長正在放緩，尤其是在美國

Instead, Netflix is focusing on price hikes, cracking down on password sharing, and its ad-supported tier. These moves are working, with Q2 2025 revenue hitting $11.04 billion, up 15.4% from last year. But let's not forget, Disney+ and HBO Max are hot on its heels.

取而代之的是，Netflix專注於價格上漲，打擊密碼共享以及其廣告支持的層。這些舉動正在運行，第二季度為2025年收入達到110.4億美元，比去年增長了15.4％。但是，不要忘記，迪士尼+和HBO Max的腳跟很熱。

Margin Expansion: A Bright Spot

邊距擴展：亮點

Netflix's profitability has soared. In 2024, net income jumped 61% to $8.71 billion, with an operating margin of 26.7%. The company aims to hit 29% in 2025. This efficiency is crucial as content costs rise.

Netflix的盈利能力飆升了。 2024年，淨收入增長了61％，至87.1億美元，營業利潤率為26.7％。該公司的目標是在2025年達到29％。隨著內容成本上升，該效率至關重要。

Valuation vs. Reality: The Elephant in the Room

估值與現實：房間裡的大象

Here's where things get dicey. Netflix's P/E of 60.9 (as of July 2025) is nearly three times the S&P 500 average and twice that of Disney. Historically, it's been even higher, but today's multiple demands perfection. A single misstep could send the stock plummeting.

這是事物變得怪異的地方。 Netflix的市盈率為60.9（截至2025年7月），幾乎是標準普爾500指數的平均三倍，是迪士尼的兩倍。從歷史上看，它已經更高，但是今天的多重要求完美。單個失誤可能會使股票下降。

Strategic Moves: Ads, Sports, and Localization

戰略舉動：廣告，體育和本地化

Netflix's ad-supported tier is projected to double ad revenue to $2.1 billion in 2025. Live sports (like NFL games and WWE events) and localized content (K-dramas, Bollywood hits) are fueling growth in Asia and Latin America. Smart moves, but they come with risks.

Netflix的廣告支持層預計將在2025年將廣告收入倍增至21億美元。現場體育（例如NFL遊戲和WWE活動）以及本地內容（K-DRAMAS，Bollywood Hits）正在推動亞洲和拉丁美洲的增長。聰明的動作，但它們有風險。

The Bottom Line: Risky for New Investors

最重要的是：新投資者的風險

Netflix remains a streaming titan with 759 million global viewers and a $520 billion market cap. Its Q2 2025 earnings beat expectations, and its 2029 forward P/E of 25x suggests investors believe growth will continue. But the stock's current P/E of 60.9 leaves little room for error.

Netflix仍然是一家流媒體巨頭，擁有7.59億全球觀眾和5200億美元的市值。其第二季度的2025年收入超過了預期，其2029年的25倍遠期市盈率表明投資者認為增長將繼續下去。但是該股票的當前市盈率為60.9，幾乎沒有錯誤的空間。

For new investors, the risk-reward is lopsided. The stock is already pricing in perfection. If you're late to the party, you're betting on even more perfection.

對於新的投資者來說，風險回報是不平衡的。股票已經完美定價。如果您參加聚會遲到，那麼您將押注更加完美。

Action Alert: Consider the Alternatives

動作警報：考慮替代方案

While Netflix is a buy-and-hold for long-term fans, new investors might find better opportunities elsewhere:

雖然Netflix是長期粉絲的購買和持有的，但新投資者可能會在其他地方找到更好的機會：

• Disney+ (DIS): A P/E of 26.7, strong content libraries, and synergies with ESPN+.
• AMC Entertainment (AMC): A different risk profile with theater recovery and streaming.
• Paramount Global (PARA): A P/E of 21.5 with a strong portfolio of brands.

Final Take

最終拍攝

Netflix is the king, but its 60.9x P/E is a high-stakes bet. If you own it, hold. If you're buying new shares, tread carefully. The market is pricing in a flawless future, and in investing, “flawless” is a rare commodity.

Netflix是國王，但其60.9倍的p/e是一個高風險的賭注。如果您擁有它，請保持。如果您要購買新股，請仔細踩踏。市場在完美的未來中定價，在投資中，“完美無瑕”是一種罕見的商品。

So, is Netflix going to keep its crown? Only time will tell. But for now, buckle up and enjoy the show!

那麼，Netflix會保留其冠冕嗎？只有時間會證明。但是現在，搭扣並享受演出！