引領加密浪潮：比特幣和以太坊期權作為市場磁鐵

解讀比特幣和以太坊期權的最新趨勢，探索它們如何在經濟變化和不斷變化的投資者情緒中發揮市場磁鐵的作用。

The crypto market's been buzzing with activity, especially around Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options. They're not just financial instruments; they're market magnets, pulling prices this way and that. Let's dive into what's been happening.

加密貨幣市場一直充滿活動，尤其是圍繞比特幣（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）期權。它們不僅是金融工具，也是金融工具。它們是市場磁鐵，以這種方式拉動價格。讓我們深入了解正在發生的事情。

Government Shutdown Spurs Crypto Interest

政府關門刺激了加密貨幣興趣

Remember that US government shutdown? Turns out, it sent investors scurrying towards safe-haven assets like Bitcoin and gold. This "devaluation trading" pushed Bitcoin to a new record high of $125,689, marking its first peak since mid-August. Gold wasn't slacking either, hitting an all-time high above $3,900 per ounce.

還記得美國政府關門嗎？事實證明，這促使投資者紛紛轉向比特幣和黃金等避險資產。這次“貶值交易”將比特幣推升至125,689美元的新紀錄高位，這是自8月中旬以來的首次峰值。黃金價格也沒有放緩，觸及每盎司 3,900 美元以上的歷史新高。

Options Market Dynamics: Shaping Spot Prices

期權市場動態：塑造現貨價格

David Lawant from FalconX Research pointed out that the total open interest in Deribit and IBIT is nearing $80 billion, a tenfold increase since the start of 2024. What's the big deal? Well, he says, "Options market dynamics are shaping spot price movements like never before." In other words, what happens in the options market is directly influencing the prices you see on the crypto exchanges.

FalconX Research 的 David Lawant 指出，Deribit 和 IBIT 的未平倉合約總額已接近 800 億美元，自 2024 年初以來增長了十倍。這有什麼大不了的？嗯，他說，“期權市場動態正在以前所未有的方式影響現貨價格走勢。”換句話說，期權市場發生的事情直接影響您在加密貨幣交易所看到的價格。

Bitcoin vs. Ethereum: A Tale of Two Options

比特幣與以太坊：兩種選擇的故事

Now, let's talk specifics. Recent data showed a significant expiry of crypto options on Deribit, with $4.3 billion in Bitcoin options and $940 million in Ethereum options on the line. The Put/Call Ratio for BTC was 1.12, suggesting a slightly bearish sentiment among options traders. Max pain? A cool $117,000. For Ethereum, the Put/Call Ratio was 0.9, indicating a more neutral outlook, with a max pain level of $4,400.

現在，我們來談談具體情況。最近的數據顯示，Deribit 上的加密貨幣期權大幅到期，其中價值 43 億美元的比特幣期權和 9.4 億美元的以太坊期權即將到期。 BTC 的看跌/看漲比率為 1.12，表明期權交易者的情緒略顯看跌。最大疼痛？ 117,000 美元，很酷。對於以太坊，看跌/看漲比率為 0.9，表明前景更為中性，最大痛苦水平為 4,400 美元。

But here's the kicker: Bitcoin was trading above its max pain level, while Ethereum was below. This could have hinted at a potential dip for BTC and a rise for ETH as the options expiration approached. Rachael Lucas, a BTC Markets analyst, even suggested a target of $150,000 for Bitcoin, but cautioned about the risks of high volatility due to increased leverage.

但問題在於：比特幣的交易價格高於其最大痛苦水平，而以太坊則低於最大痛苦水平。這可能暗示隨著期權到期日的臨近，BTC 可能會下跌，而 ETH 可能會上漲。 BTC 市場分析師 Rachael Lucas 甚至建議將比特幣的目標定為 15 萬美元，但對槓桿增加帶來的高波動風險提出警告。

The $21 Billion Expiry Event

210 億美元到期事件

Fast forward, and the market faced one of its biggest stress tests: a whopping $21 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiring. Bitcoin options dominated with a $16 billion notional value and a put-to-call ratio of 0.71, signaling bullish sentiment. Ethereum's $5.08 billion notional value came with a more cautious put-to-call ratio of 0.86.

很快，市場面臨著最大的壓力測試之一：價值高達 210 億美元的比特幣和以太坊期權即將到期。比特幣期權的名義價值為 160 億美元，看跌期權與看漲期權比率為 0.71，表明看漲情緒。以太坊名義價值為 50.8 億美元，看跌期權與看漲期權比率為 0.86，較為謹慎。

The max pain levels were $111,000 for Bitcoin and $3,800 for Ethereum. Ethereum's price was uncomfortably close to its max pain, raising concerns about potential downside pressure. Greeks.live even warned of a shift in market sentiment for Ethereum, with increasing expectations of downside risk.

比特幣的最大痛苦水平為 111,000 美元，以太坊的最大痛苦水平為 3,800 美元。以太坊的價格令人不安地接近其最大痛苦，引發了人們對潛在下行壓力的擔憂。 Greeks.live甚至警告稱，以太坊的市場情緒發生了轉變，下行風險的預期不斷增加。

Looking Ahead: Hedging and Bullish Bets

展望未來：對沖和看漲押注

Despite the short-term caution, many investors have already started placing bullish bets for the fourth quarter, anticipating renewed momentum as the year closes. While conditions often stabilize after these massive expiries, this particular one, being the largest of Q3, could set the tone for the crypto markets heading into the final months of 2025.

儘管短期內持謹慎態度，但許多投資者已開始看好第四季度，預計年底將出現新的勢頭。雖然在這些大規模到期後情況通常會穩定下來，但作為第三季度最大的一次特殊到期，可能會為進入 2025 年最後幾個月的加密貨幣市場定下基調。

Final Thoughts

最後的想法

So, what's the takeaway? Bitcoin and Ethereum options are powerful market magnets, influenced by everything from government shutdowns to investor sentiment. Keeping an eye on these dynamics is crucial for anyone navigating the crypto space. Whether you're a seasoned trader or just dipping your toes in, understanding how options work is key to staying afloat in this ever-changing market. And remember, always do your own research before making any investment decisions. After all, in the world of crypto, knowledge is power!

那麼，要點是什麼？比特幣和以太坊期權是強大的市場磁鐵，受到從政府關閉到投資者情緒等各種因素的影響。對於任何探索加密貨幣領域的人來說，密切關注這些動態都至關重要。無論您是經驗豐富的交易者還是剛剛涉足市場，了解期權的運作方式都是在這個不斷變化的市場中生存的關鍵。請記住，在做出任何投資決定之前，請務必先進行自己的研究。畢竟，在加密世界中，知識就是力量！