引领加密浪潮：比特币和以太坊期权作为市场磁铁

解读比特币和以太坊期权的最新趋势，探索它们如何在经济变化和不断变化的投资者情绪中发挥市场磁铁的作用。

The crypto market's been buzzing with activity, especially around Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options. They're not just financial instruments; they're market magnets, pulling prices this way and that. Let's dive into what's been happening.

加密货币市场一直充满活动，尤其是围绕比特币（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）期权。它们不仅仅是金融工具；也是金融工具。它们是市场磁铁，以这种方式拉动价格。让我们深入了解正在发生的事情。

Government Shutdown Spurs Crypto Interest

政府关门刺激了加密货币兴趣

Remember that US government shutdown? Turns out, it sent investors scurrying towards safe-haven assets like Bitcoin and gold. This "devaluation trading" pushed Bitcoin to a new record high of $125,689, marking its first peak since mid-August. Gold wasn't slacking either, hitting an all-time high above $3,900 per ounce.

还记得美国政府关门吗？事实证明，这促使投资者纷纷转向比特币和黄金等避险资产。这次“贬值交易”将比特币推升至125,689美元的新纪录高位，这是自8月中旬以来的首次峰值。黄金价格也没有放缓，触及每盎司 3,900 美元以上的历史新高。

Options Market Dynamics: Shaping Spot Prices

期权市场动态：塑造现货价格

David Lawant from FalconX Research pointed out that the total open interest in Deribit and IBIT is nearing $80 billion, a tenfold increase since the start of 2024. What's the big deal? Well, he says, "Options market dynamics are shaping spot price movements like never before." In other words, what happens in the options market is directly influencing the prices you see on the crypto exchanges.

FalconX Research 的 David Lawant 指出，Deribit 和 IBIT 的未平仓合约总额已接近 800 亿美元，自 2024 年初以来增长了十倍。这有什么大不了的？嗯，他说，“期权市场动态正在以前所未有的方式影响现货价格走势。”换句话说，期权市场发生的事情直接影响您在加密货币交易所看到的价格。

Bitcoin vs. Ethereum: A Tale of Two Options

比特币与以太坊：两种选择的故事

Now, let's talk specifics. Recent data showed a significant expiry of crypto options on Deribit, with $4.3 billion in Bitcoin options and $940 million in Ethereum options on the line. The Put/Call Ratio for BTC was 1.12, suggesting a slightly bearish sentiment among options traders. Max pain? A cool $117,000. For Ethereum, the Put/Call Ratio was 0.9, indicating a more neutral outlook, with a max pain level of $4,400.

现在，我们来谈谈具体情况。最近的数据显示，Deribit 上的加密货币期权大幅到期，其中价值 43 亿美元的比特币期权和 9.4 亿美元的以太坊期权即将到期。 BTC 的看跌/看涨比率为 1.12，表明期权交易者的情绪略显看跌。最大疼痛？ 117,000 美元，很酷。对于以太坊，看跌/看涨比率为 0.9，表明前景更为中性，最大痛苦水平为 4,400 美元。

But here's the kicker: Bitcoin was trading above its max pain level, while Ethereum was below. This could have hinted at a potential dip for BTC and a rise for ETH as the options expiration approached. Rachael Lucas, a BTC Markets analyst, even suggested a target of $150,000 for Bitcoin, but cautioned about the risks of high volatility due to increased leverage.

但问题在于：比特币的交易价格高于其最大痛苦水平，而以太坊则低于最大痛苦水平。这可能暗示随着期权到期日的临近，BTC 可能会下跌，而 ETH 可能会上涨。 BTC 市场分析师 Rachael Lucas 甚至建议将比特币的目标定为 15 万美元，但对杠杆增加带来的高波动风险提出警告。

The $21 Billion Expiry Event

210 亿美元到期事件

Fast forward, and the market faced one of its biggest stress tests: a whopping $21 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiring. Bitcoin options dominated with a $16 billion notional value and a put-to-call ratio of 0.71, signaling bullish sentiment. Ethereum's $5.08 billion notional value came with a more cautious put-to-call ratio of 0.86.

很快，市场面临着最大的压力测试之一：价值高达 210 亿美元的比特币和以太坊期权即将到期。比特币期权的名义价值为 160 亿美元，看跌期权与看涨期权比率为 0.71，表明看涨情绪。以太坊名义价值为 50.8 亿美元，看跌期权与看涨期权比率为 0.86，较为谨慎。

The max pain levels were $111,000 for Bitcoin and $3,800 for Ethereum. Ethereum's price was uncomfortably close to its max pain, raising concerns about potential downside pressure. Greeks.live even warned of a shift in market sentiment for Ethereum, with increasing expectations of downside risk.

比特币的最大痛苦水平为 111,000 美元，以太坊的最大痛苦水平为 3,800 美元。以太坊的价格令人不安地接近其最大痛苦，引发了人们对潜在下行压力的担忧。 Greeks.live甚至警告称，以太坊的市场情绪发生了转变，下行风险的预期不断增加。

Looking Ahead: Hedging and Bullish Bets

展望未来：对冲和看涨押注

Despite the short-term caution, many investors have already started placing bullish bets for the fourth quarter, anticipating renewed momentum as the year closes. While conditions often stabilize after these massive expiries, this particular one, being the largest of Q3, could set the tone for the crypto markets heading into the final months of 2025.

尽管短期内持谨慎态度，但许多投资者已开始看好第四季度，预计年底将出现新的势头。虽然在这些大规模到期后情况通常会稳定下来，但作为第三季度最大的一次特殊到期，可能会为进入 2025 年最后几个月的加密货币市场定下基调。

Final Thoughts

最后的想法

So, what's the takeaway? Bitcoin and Ethereum options are powerful market magnets, influenced by everything from government shutdowns to investor sentiment. Keeping an eye on these dynamics is crucial for anyone navigating the crypto space. Whether you're a seasoned trader or just dipping your toes in, understanding how options work is key to staying afloat in this ever-changing market. And remember, always do your own research before making any investment decisions. After all, in the world of crypto, knowledge is power!

那么，要点是什么？比特币和以太坊期权是强大的市场磁铁，受到从政府关闭到投资者情绪等各种因素的影响。对于任何探索加密货币领域的人来说，密切关注这些动态都至关重要。无论您是经验丰富的交易者还是刚刚涉足市场，了解期权的运作方式都是在这个不断变化的市场中生存的关键。请记住，在做出任何投资决定之前，请务必先进行自己的研究。毕竟，在加密世界中，知识就是力量！