比特幣的本質及其波動性

隨著世界越來越數位化，貨幣也應該這樣做——加密貨幣就是最終結果。

As the world continues to embrace digitization, it's natural to wonder why money hasn't followed suit — with cryptocurrency being the ultimate digital currency. But despite its introduction a while back, mainstream adoption of crypto seems to have stalled, remaining largely confined to "crypto bros" and a few risk-tolerant individuals experimenting with it.

隨著世界繼續擁抱數位化，人們自然想知道為什麼貨幣沒有效仿——加密貨幣是終極數位貨幣。但儘管加密貨幣推出不久，加密貨幣的主流採用似乎已經停滯不前，仍然主要局限於「加密貨幣兄弟」和一些能夠承受風險的個人進行嘗試。

For most people, Bitcoin's price still feels like a guessing game, and something highly volatile. So today, let us quickly take you through Bitcoin and its volatility.

對大多數人來說，比特幣的價格仍然感覺像是一場猜謎遊戲，而且波動性很大。今天，讓我們快速帶您了解比特幣及其波動性。

The Nature of Supply and Demand

供給和需求的本質

First and foremost, the primary reason for Bitcoin price volatility is the simple economics of supply vs demand. Supply plays a major role here since Bitcoin is a digital, deflationary asset with a fixed capped amount of only 21 million. So, if at any point in time the supply becomes less while there's demand for owning it, then logically the price has to be bid up.

首先，比特幣價格波動的主要原因是供給與需求的簡單經濟學。供應在這裡發揮著重要作用，因為比特幣是一種數位通貨緊縮資產，其固定上限僅為 2,100 萬。因此，如果在任何時間點，供應量減少，而擁有它的需求卻存在，那麼從邏輯上講，價格就必須上漲。

Media Influence and Market Sentiment

媒體影響力與市場情緒

Even media and news play a role in the crypto space. A simple tweet from Elon Musk about Bitcoin can change the price of the cryptocurrency within seconds. If the news, or the general market sentiment, has a positive tone to it, then it'll lead to Bitcoin going up and vice versa.

甚至媒體和新聞也在加密貨幣領域發揮作用。伊隆馬斯克關於比特幣的一條簡單推文可以在幾秒鐘內改變加密貨幣的價格。如果新聞或整體市場情緒有積極的基調，那麼它將導致比特幣上漲，反之亦然。

The Role of Speculators and Investors

投機者和投資者的角色

Bitcoin was created as a currency for “the people.” The middleman was supposed to be removed. However, Bitcoin has become a commodity traded by both retail traders and institutional traders. When more participants enter any arena, speculation naturally becomes part of the deal (or game). Most traders in Bitcoin now are not looking to be investors for the long run; rather, they are looking for a “get-rich-quick” scenario, with the day trading and haggling over pennies most of the time.

比特幣是作為「人民」的貨幣而創建的。中間人應該被刪除。然而，比特幣已成為零售交易者和機構交易者交易的商品。當更多的參與者進入任何領域時，投機自然會成為交易（或遊戲）的一部分。現在大多數比特幣交易者並不打算成為長期投資者；相反，他們正在尋找一種「快速致富」的場景，大部分時間都是在日內交易和討價還價。

In this context, the more people speculate, the bigger the price movement, especially if leverage comes into play. The Bitcoin market on Binance is through the roof.

在這種背景下，投機的人越多，價格變動就越大，尤其是在槓桿發揮作用的情況下。幣安上的比特幣市場正在快速發展。

Regulatory Developments

監管動態

Blockchain regulation is a very fluid aspect. Digital currency, be it Bitcoin or others, is very new, and most developed countries that are trying to integrate such currencies into their economy have no clue as to how to go about it. This creates a lot of volatility. Any country making new regulations can destroy or cripple demand, thus resulting in major drops in prices in a short duration of time.

區塊鏈監管是一個非常不穩定的面向。數位貨幣，無論是比特幣還是其他貨幣，都是非常新的，大多數試圖將此類貨幣融入其經濟的已開發國家不知道如何實施。這會造成很大的波動。任何制定新法規的國家都可能破壞或削弱需求，導致價格在短時間內大幅下跌。

Technological Innovations and Market Infrastructure

技術創新與市場基礎設施

The infrastructure supporting blockchain markets is in flux. New technology is being created (e.g., the Lightning Network) that enables faster confirmation/settlement of transactions. More people can generally use the technology if it all works as intended. More users = less volatility as bitcoin is meaningfully integrated into the financial system; more stability over time with the potential of explosive price increases.

支持區塊鏈市場的基礎設施不斷變化。新技術（例如閃電網路）正在被創建，以實現更快的交易確認/結算。如果一切按預期工作，更多的人通常可以使用該技術。更多用戶=更少波動，因為比特幣已有意義地融入金融體系；隨著時間的推移，穩定性會更高，價格可能會出現爆炸性上漲。

But if something doesn’t work as intended or systems are compromised – boom! The prices become bust!

但是，如果某些東西沒有按預期工作或系統受到損害 - 繁榮！價格暴漲！

Get Trading

取得交易

As Bitcoin is increasingly integrated into the global economy, being aware of these things will help you navigate the crypto waters. If you know what influences the price of Bitcoin, you can better frame your decision-making in the arguably wildest market space available.

隨著比特幣日益融入全球經濟，了解這些事情將有助於您在加密貨幣領域航行。如果您知道影響比特幣價格的因素，您就可以在可以說是最瘋狂的市場空間中更好地制定決策。