比特币的本质及其波动性

随着世界越来越数字化，货币也应该这样做——加密货币就是最终结果。

As the world continues to embrace digitization, it's natural to wonder why money hasn't followed suit — with cryptocurrency being the ultimate digital currency. But despite its introduction a while back, mainstream adoption of crypto seems to have stalled, remaining largely confined to "crypto bros" and a few risk-tolerant individuals experimenting with it.

随着世界继续拥抱数字化，人们很自然地想知道为什么货币没有效仿——加密货币是终极数字货币。但尽管加密货币推出不久，加密货币的主流采用似乎已经停滞不前，仍然主要局限于“加密货币兄弟”和一些能够承受风险的个人进行尝试。

For most people, Bitcoin's price still feels like a guessing game, and something highly volatile. So today, let us quickly take you through Bitcoin and its volatility.

对于大多数人来说，比特币的价格仍然感觉像是一场猜谜游戏，而且波动性很大。今天，让我们快速带您了解比特币及其波动性。

The Nature of Supply and Demand

供给和需求的本质

First and foremost, the primary reason for Bitcoin price volatility is the simple economics of supply vs demand. Supply plays a major role here since Bitcoin is a digital, deflationary asset with a fixed capped amount of only 21 million. So, if at any point in time the supply becomes less while there's demand for owning it, then logically the price has to be bid up.

首先，比特币价格波动的主要原因是供给与需求的简单经济学。供应在这里发挥着重要作用，因为比特币是一种数字通货紧缩资产，其固定上限仅为 2100 万。因此，如果在任何时间点，供应量减少，而拥有它的需求却存在，那么从逻辑上讲，价格就必须上涨。

Media Influence and Market Sentiment

媒体影响力和市场情绪

Even media and news play a role in the crypto space. A simple tweet from Elon Musk about Bitcoin can change the price of the cryptocurrency within seconds. If the news, or the general market sentiment, has a positive tone to it, then it'll lead to Bitcoin going up and vice versa.

甚至媒体和新闻也在加密货币领域发挥着作用。埃隆·马斯克关于比特币的一条简单推文可以在几秒钟内改变加密货币的价格。如果新闻或总体市场情绪有积极的基调，那么它将导致比特币上涨，反之亦然。

The Role of Speculators and Investors

投机者和投资者的角色

Bitcoin was created as a currency for “the people.” The middleman was supposed to be removed. However, Bitcoin has become a commodity traded by both retail traders and institutional traders. When more participants enter any arena, speculation naturally becomes part of the deal (or game). Most traders in Bitcoin now are not looking to be investors for the long run; rather, they are looking for a “get-rich-quick” scenario, with the day trading and haggling over pennies most of the time.

比特币是作为“人民”的货币而创建的。中间人应该被删除。然而，比特币已成为零售交易者和机构交易者交易的商品。当更多的参与者进入任何领域时，投机自然会成为交易（或游戏）的一部分。现在大多数比特币交易者并不打算成为长期投资者；相反，他们正在寻找一种“快速致富”的场景，大部分时间都是在日内交易和讨价还价。

In this context, the more people speculate, the bigger the price movement, especially if leverage comes into play. The Bitcoin market on Binance is through the roof.

在这种背景下，投机的人越多，价格变动就越大，尤其是在杠杆发挥作用的情况下。币安上的比特币市场正在飞速发展。

Regulatory Developments

监管动态

Blockchain regulation is a very fluid aspect. Digital currency, be it Bitcoin or others, is very new, and most developed countries that are trying to integrate such currencies into their economy have no clue as to how to go about it. This creates a lot of volatility. Any country making new regulations can destroy or cripple demand, thus resulting in major drops in prices in a short duration of time.

区块链监管是一个非常不稳定的方面。数字货币，无论是比特币还是其他货币，都是非常新的，大多数试图将此类货币融入其经济的发达国家不知道如何实施。这会产生很大的波动性。任何制定新法规的国家都可能破坏或削弱需求，从而导致价格在短时间内大幅下跌。

Technological Innovations and Market Infrastructure

技术创新和市场基础设施

The infrastructure supporting blockchain markets is in flux. New technology is being created (e.g., the Lightning Network) that enables faster confirmation/settlement of transactions. More people can generally use the technology if it all works as intended. More users = less volatility as bitcoin is meaningfully integrated into the financial system; more stability over time with the potential of explosive price increases.

支持区块链市场的基础设施不断变化。新技术（例如闪电网络）正在被创建，以实现更快的交易确认/结算。如果一切按预期工作，更多的人通常可以使用该技术。更多用户 = 更少的波动性，因为比特币已有意义地融入金融体系；随着时间的推移，稳定性会更高，价格可能会出现爆炸性上涨。

But if something doesn’t work as intended or systems are compromised – boom! The prices become bust!

但是，如果某些东西没有按预期工作或系统受到损害 - 繁荣！价格暴涨！

Get Trading

获取交易

As Bitcoin is increasingly integrated into the global economy, being aware of these things will help you navigate the crypto waters. If you know what influences the price of Bitcoin, you can better frame your decision-making in the arguably wildest market space available.

随着比特币日益融入全球经济，了解这些事情将帮助您在加密货币领域航行。如果您知道影响比特币价格的因素，您就可以在可以说是最疯狂的市场空间中更好地制定决策。