邁克爾·塞勒（Michael Saylor）預測比特幣ETF（IBIT）將是十年來世界上最大的

IBIT在ETF景觀中的興起。截至2025年4月，BlackRock的IBIT擁有約544億美元的管理資產（AUM）。

Michael Saylor, known for his pro-Bitcoin stance and executive chairman of Strategy, made another bold prediction for the digital asset. At the Bitcoin Standard Corporation’s Investor Day, Saylor stated that IBIT, referring to BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, will become the largest ETF in ten years.

邁克爾·塞勒（Michael Saylor）以親幣立場和戰略執行董事長而聞名，他對數字資產做出了另一個大膽的預測。在比特幣標準公司的投資者日，塞勒說，伊比特（Ibit）指的是貝萊德（Blackrock）的ishares比特幣信託基金會（Ishares Bitcoin Trust），將成為十年來最大的ETF。

Trade Crypto on Kraken

在Kraken上交易加密貨幣

The comment reflects Saylor’s strong belief in Bitcoin’s long-term potential and the rapid institutional adoption it is currently experiencing. With Bitcoin ETFs setting records for capital inflow and the broader enthusiasm around spot Bitcoin products, his prediction is drawing both interest and skepticism from industry analysts.

該評論反映了Saylor對比特幣長期潛力以及目前正在經歷的迅速採用的迅速採用的信念。隨著比特幣ETF設定資本流入的記錄以及對現貨比特幣產品的廣泛熱情，他的預測既引起了行業分析師的興趣和懷疑主義的興趣。

IBIT’s rise in the ETF landscape

IBIT在ETF景觀中的崛起

As of April 2025, BlackRock’s IBIT holds approximately $54.4 billion in assets under management (AUM). On a single trading day, it recorded over $1.5 billion in volume, placing it among the most actively traded ETFs. However, it has a long road ahead to surpass the current leader: the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO), which boasts a market capitalization of $593.5 billion, which is more than ten times that of IBIT.

截至2025年4月，BlackRock的IBIT擁有約544億美元的管理資產（AUM）。在一次交易日，它的數量超過15億美元，使其成為最積極的ETF。但是，超過當前領導者的漫長道路：Vanguard S＆P 500 ETF（VOO），其市值為5935億美元，是IBIT的十倍以上。

IBIT currently leads the pack of Bitcoin ETFs by a substantial margin:

IBIT目前將比特幣ETF的包裝帶來了很大的利潤：

This leadership among Bitcoin ETFs demonstrates strong investor interest and sets a foundation for potential long-term growth.

比特幣ETF的領導能力表現出強烈的投資者興趣，並為潛在的長期增長奠定了基礎。

Extraordinary circumstances needed

需要特殊情況

Eric Balchunas, Senior ETF Analyst at Bloomberg, acknowledged that IBIT’s ascent to the top is theoretically possible, though it would require “extraordinary” market dynamics.

彭博社的高級ETF分析師埃里克·巴爾庫納斯（Eric Balchunas）承認，伊比特（Ibit）在理論上是可能的，儘管這需要“非凡”的市場動態。

I would never say never re $IBIT bc it broke every conceivable record it’s rookie year but.. King VOO is curr 10x bigger and hauls in 5x more cash every day = would take a flat or negative decade for US stocks while btc moons. https://t.co/2htftYoVyD— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) January 10, 2024

我永遠不會說永遠不要$ ibit bc，它打破了每一個可以想像的記錄，這是新秀一年，但是.. voo國王大10倍，每天增加5倍的現金=在BTC Moons時，美國股票將需要平坦或負十年。 https://t.co/2htftyovyd-埃里克·巴爾庫納斯（@ericbalchunas）2024年1月10日

Such sustained inflows would likely require significant adoption across institutional portfolios, national treasuries, and a continued bullish trajectory for Bitcoin itself.

這種持續的流入可能需要在機構投資組合，國家國庫以及比特幣本身的持續看漲軌跡中進行大量採用。

The Bitcoin price factor: ARK’s $2.4 million target

比特幣價格因素：方舟的240萬美元目標

Saylor’s bold claim also depends heavily on Bitcoin’s price performance over the next ten years. If the cryptocurrency manages to achieve even a fraction of the appreciation forecasted by leading research firms, the capital influx into Bitcoin ETFs like IBIT could be monumental.

Saylor的大膽主張還在很大程度上取決於比特幣在未來十年中的價格性能。如果加密貨幣設法達到了領先的研究公司預測的欣賞的一小部分，那麼像iBIT這樣的資本湧入了比特幣ETF可能是巨大的。

ARK Invest, led by Cathie Wood, recently revised its bull case target for Bitcoin to $2.4 million by 2030, a 60% increase from its January 2024 forecast. The firm’s updated model adjusts for active supply, excluding long-lost or long-held coins, and now reflects a 72% CAGR from December 2023 through 2030. ARK laid out the following projections:

由凱西·伍德（Cathie Wood）領導的方舟投資（Ark Invest）最近將其對比特幣的牛案案件進行了修改，到2030年，比特幣的預測增加了60％。該公司更新的模型調整了主動供應，不包括較長或長期的硬幣，現在反映了從2023年12月到2030年的72％的複合年增長率。方舟制定了以下預測：

According to ARK analyst David Puell, the projections are grounded in Bitcoin’s expected penetration across various markets, including:

根據方舟分析師戴維·普爾（David Puell）的說法，這些預測是基於比特幣在各個市場中的預期滲透的基礎，其中包括：