迈克尔·塞勒（Michael Saylor）预测比特币ETF（IBIT）将是十年来世界上最大的

IBIT在ETF景观中的兴起。截至2025年4月，BlackRock的IBIT拥有约544亿美元的管理资产（AUM）。

Michael Saylor, known for his pro-Bitcoin stance and executive chairman of Strategy, made another bold prediction for the digital asset. At the Bitcoin Standard Corporation’s Investor Day, Saylor stated that IBIT, referring to BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, will become the largest ETF in ten years.

迈克尔·塞勒（Michael Saylor）以亲币立场和战略执行董事长而闻名，他对数字资产做出了另一个大胆的预测。在比特币标准公司的投资者日，塞勒说，伊比特（Ibit）指的是贝莱德（Blackrock）的ishares比特币信托基金会（Ishares Bitcoin Trust），将成为十年来最大的ETF。

Trade Crypto on Kraken

在Kraken上交易加密货币

The comment reflects Saylor’s strong belief in Bitcoin’s long-term potential and the rapid institutional adoption it is currently experiencing. With Bitcoin ETFs setting records for capital inflow and the broader enthusiasm around spot Bitcoin products, his prediction is drawing both interest and skepticism from industry analysts.

该评论反映了Saylor对比特币长期潜力以及目前正在经历的迅速采用的迅速采用的信念。随着比特币ETF设定资本流入的记录以及对现货比特币产品的广泛热情，他的预测既引起了行业分析师的兴趣和怀疑主义的兴趣。

IBIT’s rise in the ETF landscape

IBIT在ETF景观中的崛起

As of April 2025, BlackRock’s IBIT holds approximately $54.4 billion in assets under management (AUM). On a single trading day, it recorded over $1.5 billion in volume, placing it among the most actively traded ETFs. However, it has a long road ahead to surpass the current leader: the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO), which boasts a market capitalization of $593.5 billion, which is more than ten times that of IBIT.

截至2025年4月，BlackRock的IBIT拥有约544亿美元的管理资产（AUM）。在一次交易日，它的数量超过15亿美元，使其成为最积极的ETF。但是，超过当前领导者的漫长道路：Vanguard S＆P 500 ETF（VOO），其市值为5935亿美元，是IBIT的十倍以上。

IBIT currently leads the pack of Bitcoin ETFs by a substantial margin:

IBIT目前将比特币ETF的包装带来了很大的利润：

This leadership among Bitcoin ETFs demonstrates strong investor interest and sets a foundation for potential long-term growth.

比特币ETF的领导能力表现出强烈的投资者兴趣，并为潜在的长期增长奠定了基础。

Extraordinary circumstances needed

需要特殊情况

Eric Balchunas, Senior ETF Analyst at Bloomberg, acknowledged that IBIT’s ascent to the top is theoretically possible, though it would require “extraordinary” market dynamics.

彭博社的高级ETF分析师埃里克·巴尔库纳斯（Eric Balchunas）承认，伊比特（Ibit）在理论上是可能的，尽管这需要“非凡”的市场动态。

I would never say never re $IBIT bc it broke every conceivable record it’s rookie year but.. King VOO is curr 10x bigger and hauls in 5x more cash every day = would take a flat or negative decade for US stocks while btc moons. https://t.co/2htftYoVyD— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) January 10, 2024

我永远不会说永远不要$ ibit bc，它打破了每一个可以想象的记录，这是新秀一年，但是.. voo国王大10倍，每天增加5倍的现金=在BTC Moons时，美国股票将需要平坦或负十年。 https://t.co/2htftyovyd-埃里克·巴尔库纳斯（@ericbalchunas）2024年1月10日

Such sustained inflows would likely require significant adoption across institutional portfolios, national treasuries, and a continued bullish trajectory for Bitcoin itself.

这种持续的流入可能需要在机构投资组合，国家国库以及比特币本身的持续看涨轨迹中进行大量采用。

The Bitcoin price factor: ARK’s $2.4 million target

比特币价格因素：方舟的240万美元目标

Saylor’s bold claim also depends heavily on Bitcoin’s price performance over the next ten years. If the cryptocurrency manages to achieve even a fraction of the appreciation forecasted by leading research firms, the capital influx into Bitcoin ETFs like IBIT could be monumental.

Saylor的大胆主张还在很大程度上取决于比特币在未来十年中的价格性能。如果加密货币设法达到了领先的研究公司预测的欣赏的一小部分，那么像iBIT这样的资本涌入了比特币ETF可能是巨大的。

ARK Invest, led by Cathie Wood, recently revised its bull case target for Bitcoin to $2.4 million by 2030, a 60% increase from its January 2024 forecast. The firm’s updated model adjusts for active supply, excluding long-lost or long-held coins, and now reflects a 72% CAGR from December 2023 through 2030. ARK laid out the following projections:

由凯西·伍德（Cathie Wood）领导的方舟投资（Ark Invest）最近将其对比特币的牛案案件进行了修改，到2030年，比特币的预测增加了60％。该公司更新的模型调整了主动供应，不包括较长或长期的硬币，现在反映了从2023年12月到2030年的72％的复合年增长率。方舟制定了以下预测：

According to ARK analyst David Puell, the projections are grounded in Bitcoin’s expected penetration across various markets, including:

根据方舟分析师戴维·普尔（David Puell）的说法，这些预测是基于比特币在各个市场中的预期渗透的基础，其中包括：