Michael Saylor Predicts Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) Will Be the Biggest in the World in Ten Years

IBIT's rise in the ETF landscape. As of April 2025, BlackRock's IBIT holds approximately $54.4 billion in assets under management (AUM).

Michael Saylor, known for his pro-Bitcoin stance and executive chairman of Strategy, made another bold prediction for the digital asset. At the Bitcoin Standard Corporation’s Investor Day, Saylor stated that IBIT, referring to BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, will become the largest ETF in ten years.

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The comment reflects Saylor’s strong belief in Bitcoin’s long-term potential and the rapid institutional adoption it is currently experiencing. With Bitcoin ETFs setting records for capital inflow and the broader enthusiasm around spot Bitcoin products, his prediction is drawing both interest and skepticism from industry analysts.

IBIT’s rise in the ETF landscape

As of April 2025, BlackRock’s IBIT holds approximately $54.4 billion in assets under management (AUM). On a single trading day, it recorded over $1.5 billion in volume, placing it among the most actively traded ETFs. However, it has a long road ahead to surpass the current leader: the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO), which boasts a market capitalization of $593.5 billion, which is more than ten times that of IBIT.

IBIT currently leads the pack of Bitcoin ETFs by a substantial margin:

This leadership among Bitcoin ETFs demonstrates strong investor interest and sets a foundation for potential long-term growth.

Extraordinary circumstances needed

Eric Balchunas, Senior ETF Analyst at Bloomberg, acknowledged that IBIT’s ascent to the top is theoretically possible, though it would require “extraordinary” market dynamics.

I would never say never re $IBIT bc it broke every conceivable record it’s rookie year but.. King VOO is curr 10x bigger and hauls in 5x more cash every day = would take a flat or negative decade for US stocks while btc moons. https://t.co/2htftYoVyD— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) January 10, 2024

Such sustained inflows would likely require significant adoption across institutional portfolios, national treasuries, and a continued bullish trajectory for Bitcoin itself.

The Bitcoin price factor: ARK’s $2.4 million target

Saylor’s bold claim also depends heavily on Bitcoin’s price performance over the next ten years. If the cryptocurrency manages to achieve even a fraction of the appreciation forecasted by leading research firms, the capital influx into Bitcoin ETFs like IBIT could be monumental.

ARK Invest, led by Cathie Wood, recently revised its bull case target for Bitcoin to $2.4 million by 2030, a 60% increase from its January 2024 forecast. The firm’s updated model adjusts for active supply, excluding long-lost or long-held coins, and now reflects a 72% CAGR from December 2023 through 2030. ARK laid out the following projections:

According to ARK analyst David Puell, the projections are grounded in Bitcoin’s expected penetration across various markets, including: