Metaplanet Bitcoin Premium命中447％ - 短時間？

Metaplanet是一個相對未知的日本股票，目前正在加密貨幣市場中浪費，但不是出於正確的原因。

A relatively unknown Japanese stock, Metaplanet, is currently trading at levels that imply Bitcoin is worth an astounding $596,154. This incredible premium of 447% over the current spot price of approximately $109,000 has sparked warnings of a major NAV (Net Asset Value) distortion and potential downside risk.

一家相對未知的日本股票Metaplanet目前正在以水平交易，這意味著比特幣值得一筆驚人的$ 596,154。這一令人難以置信的溢價在當前現貨價格約為109,000美元的溢價上引發了警告，警告了主要的NAV（淨資產價值）扭曲和潛在的下行風險。

According to a new report by 10x Research, this unusual situation has raised concerns among market analysts.

根據10倍研究的一份新報告，這種不尋常的情況引起了市場分析師之間的關注。

According to calculations by 10x Research, renowned for its accurate macro and crypto market calls, one Bitcoin is currently being priced at $596,154 through Metaplanet’s stock. However, Bitcoin is actually trading at approximately $109,000 at press time.

根據10倍研究的計算，以其準確的宏觀和加密市場電話而聞名，目前通過Metaplanet的股票，一家比特幣的價格為596,154美元。但是，在發稿時，比特幣的交易實際上約為109,000美元。

This discrepancy represents a staggering 447% premium and signals a major divergence in market sentiment and/or a potential imbalance in market forces.

這種差異代表了驚人的447％的溢價，並表示市場力量的市場情緒和/或潛在不平衡。

According to 10x Research, Metaplanet’s stock, often used by Japanese investors as a proxy for Bitcoin exposure, has surged 3886% since early 2024. This staggering gain is in stark contrast to MicroStrategy’s stock price increase of +191% and Bitcoin’s own price rise of +72% over the same period.

根據10倍研究，日本投資者經常用作比特幣敞口的代理人的元素股票飆升了3886％。自2024年初以來，這種驚人的收益與MicroStrategy的股票價格上漲 +191％，比特幣自身的價格在同一時期內 +191％上漲 +72％。

This parabolic rise has resulted in what analysts are calling a “NAV distortion,” where the value investors are paying far exceeds the underlying asset’s actual price.

這種拋物線的上升導致了分析師稱之為“ NAV失真”，價值投資者所支付的價值遠遠超過了基本資產的實際價格。

While MicroStrategy’s stock also trades at a premium to its Bitcoin holdings, the difference is far more moderate and historically justifiable given its strategy and exposure. However, Metaplanet’s stock price implies an absurdly high valuation for Bitcoin, which could indicate irrational exuberance among retail investors.

儘管MicroStrategy的股票也以其比特幣持有量的溢價進行交易，但鑑於其戰略和曝光率，差異更為溫和且歷史上是合理的。但是，Metaplanet的股價意味著比特幣的估值較高，這可能表明零售投資者之間的非理性旺盛。

According to 10x Research, several market anomalies are forming during Asian trading hours — particularly in Japan’s bond market, currency flows, and crypto-linked stocks. Retail inflows are spiking, and institutional behavior suggests a significant shift beneath the surface.

根據10倍的研究，在亞洲交易時間內，幾個市場異常正在形成，尤其是在日本的債券市場，貨幣流量和與加密貨幣相關的股票中。零售流入正在峰值，制度行為表明表面下方發生了重大變化。

Analysts compare this moment to past inflection points, like August 2015 and December 2020, when volatility dropped and investor sentiment diverged sharply from fundamentals.

分析師將這一刻與過去的拐點相提並論，例如2015年8月和2020年12月，當時波動率下降，投資者情緒與基本面急劇不同。

If history is any guide, such dislocations often precede sharp corrections. In 2015, the Nikkei 225 index subsequently lost 16% over the next six months following a similar instance of market irrationality.

如果歷史記錄是任何指南，那麼此類脫位通常是在清晰的校正之前。在2015年，Nikkei 225指數隨後在接下來的六個月中損失了16％，此前六個月發生了類似的市場非理性實例。

This warning comes from a firm with a strong track record. In December 2022, 10x Research flagged Grayscale’s GBTC at a 47% discount to NAV when Bitcoin was trading at just $18,000. They also called MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MCR) a breakout candidate when it was at $177 — it’s now trading around $380.

該警告來自具有良好記錄的公司。 2022年12月，當比特幣以18,000美元的價格交易時，10倍研究以47％的折扣標記了Grayscale的GBTC。他們還稱MicroStrategy（NASDAQ：MCR）為177美元時的突破候選人 - 現在交易約380美元。

This observation could be crucial for retail investors who are looking for crypto exposure through equities. They may now be overpaying significantly.

對於正在通過股票尋求加密貨幣風險的散戶投資者，這種觀察可能至關重要。他們現在可能會大大付錢。

Metaplanet’s valuation could serve as a canary in the coal mine — a signal that euphoric sentiment has untethered prices from fundamentals.

Metaplanet的估值可以用作煤礦中的金絲雀 - 這表明欣快的情緒來自基本面的不受限制的價格。

As 10x Research cautions, “In some cases, investors unknowingly pay a 447% premium,” which could spell trouble if sentiment turns. For instance, if investors begin to rotate out of BTC and into ETH in response to the Shanghai upgrade, this could put downward pressure on Metaplanet's stock price.

正如10倍研究所警告的那樣，“在某些情況下，投資者在不知不覺中支付447％的保費”，如果情緒轉折，這可能會帶來麻煩。例如，如果投資者因響應上海昇級而開始從BTC旋轉並進入ETH，則可能會對Metaplanet的股價下降壓力。

For savvy investors, this might be the moment to reassess, realign with NAV, and potentially even consider a short — before gravity takes hold.

對於精明的投資者而言，這可能是重新評估，與NAV進行重新分配的時刻，甚至有可能在重力掌握之前考慮一小段時間。