Metaplanet Bitcoin Premium Hits 447% — Time to Short?

Metaplanet, a relatively unknown Japanese stock, is currently making waves in the crypto market — but not for the right reasons.

A relatively unknown Japanese stock, Metaplanet, is currently trading at levels that imply Bitcoin is worth an astounding $596,154. This incredible premium of 447% over the current spot price of approximately $109,000 has sparked warnings of a major NAV (Net Asset Value) distortion and potential downside risk.

According to a new report by 10x Research, this unusual situation has raised concerns among market analysts.

According to calculations by 10x Research, renowned for its accurate macro and crypto market calls, one Bitcoin is currently being priced at $596,154 through Metaplanet’s stock. However, Bitcoin is actually trading at approximately $109,000 at press time.

This discrepancy represents a staggering 447% premium and signals a major divergence in market sentiment and/or a potential imbalance in market forces.

According to 10x Research, Metaplanet’s stock, often used by Japanese investors as a proxy for Bitcoin exposure, has surged 3886% since early 2024. This staggering gain is in stark contrast to MicroStrategy’s stock price increase of +191% and Bitcoin’s own price rise of +72% over the same period.

This parabolic rise has resulted in what analysts are calling a “NAV distortion,” where the value investors are paying far exceeds the underlying asset’s actual price.

While MicroStrategy’s stock also trades at a premium to its Bitcoin holdings, the difference is far more moderate and historically justifiable given its strategy and exposure. However, Metaplanet’s stock price implies an absurdly high valuation for Bitcoin, which could indicate irrational exuberance among retail investors.

According to 10x Research, several market anomalies are forming during Asian trading hours — particularly in Japan’s bond market, currency flows, and crypto-linked stocks. Retail inflows are spiking, and institutional behavior suggests a significant shift beneath the surface.

Analysts compare this moment to past inflection points, like August 2015 and December 2020, when volatility dropped and investor sentiment diverged sharply from fundamentals.

If history is any guide, such dislocations often precede sharp corrections. In 2015, the Nikkei 225 index subsequently lost 16% over the next six months following a similar instance of market irrationality.

This warning comes from a firm with a strong track record. In December 2022, 10x Research flagged Grayscale’s GBTC at a 47% discount to NAV when Bitcoin was trading at just $18,000. They also called MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MCR) a breakout candidate when it was at $177 — it’s now trading around $380.

This observation could be crucial for retail investors who are looking for crypto exposure through equities. They may now be overpaying significantly.

Metaplanet’s valuation could serve as a canary in the coal mine — a signal that euphoric sentiment has untethered prices from fundamentals.

As 10x Research cautions, “In some cases, investors unknowingly pay a 447% premium,” which could spell trouble if sentiment turns. For instance, if investors begin to rotate out of BTC and into ETH in response to the Shanghai upgrade, this could put downward pressure on Metaplanet's stock price.

For savvy investors, this might be the moment to reassess, realign with NAV, and potentially even consider a short — before gravity takes hold.