模因幣超級週期是非常不可持續的

投資者兼 memecoin 分析師 Murad Mahmudov 的 memecoin 超級週期理論在交易者中獲得了關注。簡而言之，該理論指出，多種因素的結合將為以迷因為中心的加密貨幣創造一個本質上永無止境的超級週期。

A recent theory coined byMurad Mahmudov has gained popularity among crypto traders, suggesting that a confluence of factors will create an essentially unending "memecoin supercycle." This theory posits that meme-centric cryptocurrencies will continue to experience a sustained bull run.

穆拉德·馬哈茂多夫(Murad Mahmudov) 最近提出的一個理論在加密貨幣交易者中廣受歡迎，該理論表明，多種因素的融合將創造一個本質上永無止境的「模因幣超級週期」。該理論認為，以迷因為中心的加密貨幣將繼續經歷持續的多頭市場。

Unlike other crypto market narratives that boast complex technical explanations and mechanics, memecoins appear to rely solely on community, emotion, and the promise of wealth. This lack of fundamentals, however, doesn't seem to deter traders who are drawn to the sense of camaraderie and the promise of rapid gains.

與其他擁有複雜技術解釋和機制的加密貨幣市場敘事不同，迷因幣似乎完全依賴社群、情感和財富的承諾。然而，這種基本面的缺乏似乎並沒有阻止那些被友情感和快速收益的承諾所吸引的交易者。

Kyle Kemper, who has developed political memecoins such as Make America Healthy Again (MAHA), argues that the memecoin supercycle doesn't signal the death of fundamental analysis but rather a shift in the metrics used.

凱爾·肯珀(Kyle Kemper) 開發了「讓美國再次健康」(MAHA) 等政治迷因幣，他認為模因幣超級週期並不意味著基本面分析的消亡，而是意味著所使用指標的轉變。

“Critical analysis of projects, teams and missions is being replaced by factors like how strong a project’s key opinion leader (KOL) game is, along with volume and chart performance,” he told Cointelegraph.

「對專案、團隊和任務的批判性分析正在被專案的關鍵意見領袖 (KOL) 遊戲的強度以及數量和圖表表現等因素所取代，」他告訴 Cointelegraph。

The apparent success of Mahmudov's memecoin supercycle theory among crypto traders indicates a deviation of their preferences.

馬哈茂多夫的迷因幣超級週期理論在加密貨幣交易者中的明顯成功表明他們的偏好出現了偏差。

Basel Ismail, CEO of investment analytics platform Blockcircle, attributes the rise of memecoins to the increasing maturity of crypto traders, stating that many traders have experienced at least one market cycle, gaining valuable lessons from their experiences.

投資分析平台 Blockcircle 執行長 Basel Ismail 將 memecoin 的崛起歸因於加密貨幣交易者的日益成熟，並表示許多交易者至少經歷過一個市場週期，從他們的經歷中獲得了寶貴的教訓。

Ismail believes veteran crypto traders have realized that most tokens marketed as providing technical solutions — so-called utility coins — lack real intrinsic value and utility beyond speculative price movements. Mahmudov covered this matter during a presentation at Token2049, quoting an X user who argued:

伊斯梅爾認為，資深的加密貨幣交易員已經意識到，大多數以提供技術解決方案為目標的代幣（所謂的實用代幣）除了投機性價格變動之外，缺乏真正的內在價值和效用。 Mahmudov 在 Token2049 的演講中談到了這個問題，並引用了一位 X 用戶的觀點：

“Most shitcoins are valued on their meme component. I’d say around 70% of a utility token’s valuation stems from speculation.”

「大多數垃圾幣的價值都是基於它們的迷因成分。我想說，實用代幣大約 70% 的估值來自投機。

He went on to explain that traders, shaped by past experiences, are wary of being “burned again” after witnessing crypto projects with supposedly solid technological foundations soar 100x in three months, only to collapse by 99% in the same period.

他接著解釋說，受過去經驗影響的交易員在目睹了所謂堅實技術基礎的加密貨幣項目在三個月內飆升100 倍，卻在同一時期內暴跌99% 後，對「再次被燒傷」持謹慎態度。

Memecoins are also fueled by a “very strong sentiment that is anti-venture capitalism and anti-private equity,” said Ismail.

伊斯梅爾表示，「非常強烈的反風險資本主義和反私募股權情緒」也推動了迷因幣的發展。

He explained that investors have felt misled by venture capitalists, who often release locked tokens on centralized exchanges, dumping them on unsuspecting retail investors.

他解釋說，投資者感到被風險資本家誤導，他們經常在中心化交易所釋放鎖定的代幣，然後將其傾銷給毫無戒心的散戶投資者。

The love for memes combined with the power of mimetics has created a social and psychological phenomenon where people want to unite with like-minded people. “We are all congregating, sharing joint beliefs,” said Ismail.

對迷因的熱愛與模仿的力量相結合，創造了一種社會和心理現象，人們希望與志趣相投的人團結起來。伊斯梅爾說：“我們聚集在一起，分享共同的信仰。”

Ismail noted that while the motivation may seem superficial to some, the strength of a shared ideal within a community of investors is significant. He cited the unprecedented phenomena of the AMC and GameStop stock runs. “They rally the troops, bringing a young, vibrant and energetic community together around an ideal or philosophy that they can make a long-lasting impact.”

伊斯梅爾指出，雖然這種動機對某些人來說似乎很膚淺，但投資者群體中共同理想的力量是巨大的。他列舉了 AMC 和 GameStop 股票擠兌的史無前例的現象。 “他們團結起來，將一個年輕、充滿活力和充滿活力的社區聚集在一起，圍繞一個理想或理念，使他們能夠產生持久的影響。”

Despite the apparent success of the memecoin supercycle, some doubt its long-term sustainability. Jameson Lopp, co-founder of crypto custodian Casa, told Cointelegraph he believes the memecoin frenzy is unlikely to last and may be misguided.

儘管模因幣超級週期取得了明顯的成功，但有些人對其長期可持續性表示懷疑。加密貨幣託管機構 Casa 的聯合創始人 Jameson Lopp 告訴 Cointelegraph，他認為 memecoin 的狂熱不太可能持續下去，而且可能會被誤導。

Pseudonymous crypto market analyst and trader Crypto Rand explained that the memecoin economy thrives on hype, driven by impulsive traders chasing a quick buck. This mindset fuels extreme volatility and rapid liquidation cascades.

化名的加密貨幣市場分析師和交易員 Crypto Rand 解釋說，memecoin 經濟在炒作的基礎上蓬勃發展，是由衝動的交易者追逐快速賺錢所推動的。這種心態助長了極端的波動和快速的清算連鎖反應。

Crypto Rand told Cointelegraph that the success of memecoins lies in their marketing and hype, comparing them to clothing trends that come and go in a blink.

Crypto Rand 告訴 Cointelegraph，迷因幣的成功在於其行銷和炒作，並將其與瞬息萬變的服裝趨勢進行比較。

97% of memecoins have died since 2024. Source: Chainplay

自 2024 年以來，97% 的 memecoin 已消亡。

Crypto Rand said he sometimes drops money into memecoins, stating that it has the same value as a bet on a soccer match or the US elections.

Crypto Rand 表示，他有時會把錢投入 memecoin，並表示這與足球比賽或美國大選的投注具有相同的價值。

Angel Versetti, founder and owner of the Dogecoin Foundation, criticized Mahmudov's supercycle theory, telling Cointelegraph it’s based on investors growing irrational due to collective mental and hormonal shifts.

狗狗幣基金會的創始人兼所有者 Angel Versetti 批評了馬哈茂多夫的超級週期理論，他告訴 Cointelegraph，該理論的基礎是投資者由於集體心理和荷爾蒙的變化而變得不理性。

He concluded that “the state of investors in the memecoin financial markets is basically indicating a mental illness.”

他的結論是，“模因幣金融市場投資者的狀態基本上表明他們患有精神疾病。”

Slide where Murad Mahmudov references collective mental and hormonal well-being. Source: Token2049

穆拉德·馬哈茂多夫 (Murad Mahmudov) 提到集體心理和荷爾蒙健康的幻燈片。資料來源：Token2049

For Versetti, a market model that bases its growth on “a greater level of delusion” among market participants “doesn’t sound like a sustainable economic model.”

對於 Versetti 來說，將其成長建立在市場參與者「更大程度的錯覺」之上的市場模式「聽起來不像是可持續的經濟模式」。

Since memecoins do not intend to create any utility, they can only keep growing “purely due to the growing delusion of investors,” he said.

他說，由於模因幣無意創造任何效用，因此它們只能「純粹由於投資者日益增長的錯覺」而繼續增長。

Versetti explained that initial coin offerings went through a similar process, where an investor would have a 1% chance of succeeding, but at least some “attempted to have a vision and build something.”

Versetti 解釋說，首次代幣發行經歷了類似的過程，投資者成功的機會只有 1%，但至少有些人「試圖擁有願景並建立一些東西」。

He pointed out how some legit products have emerged from the ICO explosion, such as Tezos XTZ $0.768, Cosmos ATOM $4.29, Chainlink LINK $11.03, BNB BNB $591.83 , and Basic Attention Token BAT $

他指出了一些合法產品是如何從 ICO 爆炸中脫穎而出的，例如 Tezos XTZ $0.768、Cosmos ATOM $4.29、Chainlink LINK $11.03、BNB BNB $591.83 和 Basic Attention Token BAT $