模因币超级周期是非常不可持续的

投资者兼 memecoin 分析师 Murad Mahmudov 的 memecoin 超级周期理论在交易者中获得了关注。简而言之，该理论指出，多种因素的结合将为以迷因为中心的加密货币创造一个本质上永无休止的超级周期。

A recent theory coined byMurad Mahmudov has gained popularity among crypto traders, suggesting that a confluence of factors will create an essentially unending "memecoin supercycle." This theory posits that meme-centric cryptocurrencies will continue to experience a sustained bull run.

穆拉德·马哈茂多夫 (Murad Mahmudov) 最近提出的一个理论在加密货币交易者中广受欢迎，该理论表明，多种因素的融合将创造一个本质上永无休止的“模因币超级周期”。该理论认为，以迷因为中心的加密货币将继续经历持续的牛市。

Unlike other crypto market narratives that boast complex technical explanations and mechanics, memecoins appear to rely solely on community, emotion, and the promise of wealth. This lack of fundamentals, however, doesn't seem to deter traders who are drawn to the sense of camaraderie and the promise of rapid gains.

与其他拥有复杂技术解释和机制的加密货币市场叙述不同，模因币似乎完全依赖于社区、情感和财富的承诺。然而，这种基本面的缺乏似乎并没有阻止那些被友情感和快速收益的承诺所吸引的交易者。

Kyle Kemper, who has developed political memecoins such as Make America Healthy Again (MAHA), argues that the memecoin supercycle doesn't signal the death of fundamental analysis but rather a shift in the metrics used.

凯尔·肯珀 (Kyle Kemper) 开发了“让美国再次健康”(MAHA) 等政治模因币，他认为模因币超级周期并不意味着基本面分析的消亡，而是意味着所使用指标的转变。

“Critical analysis of projects, teams and missions is being replaced by factors like how strong a project’s key opinion leader (KOL) game is, along with volume and chart performance,” he told Cointelegraph.

“对项目、团队和任务的批判性分析正在被项目的关键意见领袖 (KOL) 游戏的强度以及数量和图表表现等因素所取代，”他告诉 Cointelegraph。

The apparent success of Mahmudov's memecoin supercycle theory among crypto traders indicates a deviation of their preferences.

马哈茂多夫的模因币超级周期理论在加密货币交易者中的明显成功表明他们的偏好出现了偏差。

Basel Ismail, CEO of investment analytics platform Blockcircle, attributes the rise of memecoins to the increasing maturity of crypto traders, stating that many traders have experienced at least one market cycle, gaining valuable lessons from their experiences.

投资分析平台 Blockcircle 首席执行官 Basel Ismail 将 memecoin 的崛起归因于加密货币交易者的日益成熟，并表示许多交易者至少经历过一个市场周期，从他们的经历中获得了宝贵的教训。

Ismail believes veteran crypto traders have realized that most tokens marketed as providing technical solutions — so-called utility coins — lack real intrinsic value and utility beyond speculative price movements. Mahmudov covered this matter during a presentation at Token2049, quoting an X user who argued:

伊斯梅尔认为，资深的加密货币交易员已经意识到，大多数以提供技术解决方案为目标的代币（所谓的实用代币）除了投机性价格变动之外，缺乏真正的内在价值和效用。 Mahmudov 在 Token2049 的演讲中谈到了这个问题，并引用了一位 X 用户的观点：

“Most shitcoins are valued on their meme component. I’d say around 70% of a utility token’s valuation stems from speculation.”

“大多数垃圾币的价值都是基于它们的模因成分。我想说，实用代币大约 70% 的估值来自投机。”

He went on to explain that traders, shaped by past experiences, are wary of being “burned again” after witnessing crypto projects with supposedly solid technological foundations soar 100x in three months, only to collapse by 99% in the same period.

他接着解释说，受过去经验影响的交易员在目睹了所谓坚实技术基础的加密货币项目在三个月内飙升 100 倍，却在同一时期内暴跌 99% 后，对“再次被烧伤”持谨慎态度。

Memecoins are also fueled by a “very strong sentiment that is anti-venture capitalism and anti-private equity,” said Ismail.

伊斯梅尔表示，“非常强烈的反风险资本主义和反私募股权情绪”也推动了模因币的发展。

He explained that investors have felt misled by venture capitalists, who often release locked tokens on centralized exchanges, dumping them on unsuspecting retail investors.

他解释说，投资者感到被风险资本家误导，他们经常在中心化交易所释放锁定的代币，然后将其倾销给毫无戒心的散户投资者。

The love for memes combined with the power of mimetics has created a social and psychological phenomenon where people want to unite with like-minded people. “We are all congregating, sharing joint beliefs,” said Ismail.

对模因的热爱与模仿的力量相结合，创造了一种社会和心理现象，人们希望与志趣相投的人团结起来。伊斯梅尔说：“我们聚集在一起，分享共同的信仰。”

Ismail noted that while the motivation may seem superficial to some, the strength of a shared ideal within a community of investors is significant. He cited the unprecedented phenomena of the AMC and GameStop stock runs. “They rally the troops, bringing a young, vibrant and energetic community together around an ideal or philosophy that they can make a long-lasting impact.”

伊斯梅尔指出，虽然这种动机对某些人来说似乎很肤浅，但投资者群体中共同理想的力量是巨大的。他列举了 AMC 和 GameStop 股票挤兑的史无前例的现象。 “他们团结起来，将一个年轻、充满活力和充满活力的社区聚集在一起，围绕一个理想或理念，使他们能够产生持久的影响。”

Despite the apparent success of the memecoin supercycle, some doubt its long-term sustainability. Jameson Lopp, co-founder of crypto custodian Casa, told Cointelegraph he believes the memecoin frenzy is unlikely to last and may be misguided.

尽管模因币超级周期取得了明显的成功，但一些人对其长期可持续性表示怀疑。加密货币托管机构 Casa 的联合创始人 Jameson Lopp 告诉 Cointelegraph，他认为 memecoin 的狂热不太可能持续下去，而且可能会被误导。

Pseudonymous crypto market analyst and trader Crypto Rand explained that the memecoin economy thrives on hype, driven by impulsive traders chasing a quick buck. This mindset fuels extreme volatility and rapid liquidation cascades.

化名的加密货币市场分析师和交易员 Crypto Rand 解释说，memecoin 经济在炒作的基础上蓬勃发展，是由冲动的交易者追逐快速赚钱所推动的。这种心态助长了极端的波动和快速的清算连锁反应。

Crypto Rand told Cointelegraph that the success of memecoins lies in their marketing and hype, comparing them to clothing trends that come and go in a blink.

Crypto Rand 告诉 Cointelegraph，模因币的成功在于其营销和炒作，并将其与瞬息万变的服装趋势进行比较。

97% of memecoins have died since 2024. Source: Chainplay

自 2024 年以来，97% 的 memecoin 已消亡。来源：Chainplay

Crypto Rand said he sometimes drops money into memecoins, stating that it has the same value as a bet on a soccer match or the US elections.

Crypto Rand 表示，他有时会把钱投入模因币，并表示这与赌足球比赛或美国大选具有相同的价值。

Angel Versetti, founder and owner of the Dogecoin Foundation, criticized Mahmudov's supercycle theory, telling Cointelegraph it’s based on investors growing irrational due to collective mental and hormonal shifts.

狗狗币基金会的创始人兼所有者 Angel Versetti 批评了马哈茂多夫的超级周期理论，他告诉 Cointelegraph，该理论的基础是投资者由于集体心理和荷尔蒙的变化而变得不理性。

He concluded that “the state of investors in the memecoin financial markets is basically indicating a mental illness.”

他的结论是，“模因币金融市场投资者的状态基本上表明他们患有精神疾病。”

Slide where Murad Mahmudov references collective mental and hormonal well-being. Source: Token2049

穆拉德·马哈茂多夫 (Murad Mahmudov) 提到集体心理和荷尔蒙健康的幻灯片。来源：Token2049

For Versetti, a market model that bases its growth on “a greater level of delusion” among market participants “doesn’t sound like a sustainable economic model.”

对于 Versetti 来说，将其增长建立在市场参与者“更大程度的错觉”之上的市场模式“听起来不像是可持续的经济模式”。

Since memecoins do not intend to create any utility, they can only keep growing “purely due to the growing delusion of investors,” he said.

他说，由于模因币无意创造任何效用，因此它们只能“纯粹由于投资者日益增长的错觉”而继续增长。

Versetti explained that initial coin offerings went through a similar process, where an investor would have a 1% chance of succeeding, but at least some “attempted to have a vision and build something.”

Versetti 解释说，首次代币发行经历了类似的过程，投资者成功的机会只有 1%，但至少有些人“试图拥有愿景并构建一些东西”。

He pointed out how some legit products have emerged from the ICO explosion, such as Tezos XTZ $0.768, Cosmos ATOM $4.29, Chainlink LINK $11.03, BNB BNB $591.83 , and Basic Attention Token BAT $

他指出了一些合法产品是如何从 ICO 爆炸中脱颖而出的，例如 Tezos XTZ $0.768、Cosmos ATOM $4.29、Chainlink LINK $11.03、BNB BNB $591.83 和 Basic Attention Token BAT $