市場剛剛經歷了他們最暴力的重置之一

唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）重返權力引發了一​​場全面的貿易戰，全球市場陷入了困境，價值超過11萬億美元。

Markets just endured one of their most violent resets in recent times, with over $11 trillion in value being erased from stocks and crypto. The trigger? A full-blown trade war sparked by Donald Trump’s return to power, which blindsided investors and briefly convinced some that the next bear market had begun.

市場近來剛剛經歷了他們最暴力的重置之一，從股票和加密貨幣中刪除了超過11萬億美元的價值。扳機？唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）重返權力的一場全面的貿易戰爭，該戰爭蒙蔽了投資者，並簡短地說服了一些熊市開始。

However, according to Arthur Hayes, the moment to panic has passed; it’s time to “buy everything.”

但是，根據亞瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）的說法，恐慌的那一刻已經過去。是時候“買東西”了。

Tariffs Shock Global Markets

關稅衝擊全球市場

On April 2, an event dubbed “Liberation Day” by policy insiders, the Trump administration rolled out a sweeping set of tariffs, sending global markets into a tailspin. The U.S. slapped import duties on Chinese goods, reaching 145%, and China retaliated in kind.

4月2日，政策內部人士稱為“解放日”的活動，特朗普政府推出了一系列廣泛的關稅，將全球市場送入了尾巴。美國對中國商品的進口關稅達到了145％，中國以實物報復。

The impact was immediate. The crypto market, which had been quietly recovering in Q1 2025, cratered. Over $1 trillion in value was wiped out as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) dropped sharply and high-beta tokens, including memecoins, collapsed by more than 50%.livestream

影響是直接的。在2025年第1季度悄悄地恢復的加密市場。超過1萬億美元的價值被淘汰為比特幣（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）急劇下降和高貝塔代幣（包括成年人），折疊了50％以上。

“Investor sentiment flipped on a dime,” Binance Research noted. “The market shifted into full risk-aversion mode.”

Binance Research指出：“投資者的情緒翻了一毛錢。” “市場轉變為完全風險的模式。”

Traditional markets fared no better. Equities across the U.S., Europe, and Asia hemorrhaged capital. Export-heavy sectors, emerging markets, and even blue-chip U.S. tech stocks got hammered.

傳統市場沒有更好的表現。美國，歐洲和亞洲的股票大量資本。出口繁重的部門，新興市場，甚至是藍籌科技股票都被錘擊了。

The total drawdown across equities alone topped $10 trillion, drawing comparisons to the COVID panic—only this time, the catalyst wasn’t a virus, but government policy.

僅股票的總匯率就超過了100萬億美元，比較了恐慌，只有這次，催化劑不是病毒，而是政府的政策。

One voice stood out amid the doom and gloom. Arthur Hayes, former BitMEX CEO and now a prominent macro thinker, saw it coming and said the panic wouldn’t last.

在厄運和憂鬱中，一個聲音脫穎而出。前Bitmex首席執行官亞瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes），現在是著名的宏觀思想家，他看到了它的到來，並說恐慌不會持續。

For months, Hayes had been warning that any major disruption like a U.S.-China flare-up would force the Federal Reserve’s hand. In his essays on X, he argued that the Fed would have no choice but to resume money printing and liquidity injections, especially if geopolitical instability threatened markets.

幾個月來，海斯一直警告說，像美中彈爆炸這樣的任何重大破壞都會迫使美聯儲的手。他在關於X的文章中辯稱，美聯儲別無選擇，只能恢復印刷和流動性，尤其是在地緣政治不穩定威脅市場的情況下。

He also predicted that despite the tough talk, the U.S. and China would ultimately de-escalate, if only to protect markets.

他還預測，儘管進行了艱難的話題，但美國和中國將最終降級，即使只是為了保護市場。

Tariff Truce Sparks Relief Rally

關稅休戰激發救濟集會

That thesis began to be realized on May 12, when Washington and Beijing unexpectedly agreed to a 90-day tariff rollback. U.S. duties dropped from 145% to 30%, and China eased its retaliatory tariffs to 10%.

該論文於5月12日開始實現，當時華盛頓和北京意外同意了90天的關稅回滾。美國職責從145％降至30％，中國將其報復性關稅減至10％。

The reaction was swift. U.S. futures surged across the board. Bitcoin bounced back above $100,000. Ethereum reclaimed $2,500. The Nasdaq jumped 4%.

反應很快。美國期貨全面飆升。比特幣彈回了100,000美元以上。以太坊收回了$ 2,500。納斯達克躍升了4％。

And Hayes lost no time in saying what the optimists wanted to hear: “Chi-Merica lives. It’s time to buy everything.”

海耶斯（Hayes）毫不猶豫地說了樂觀主義者想听的話：“ Chi-Merica的生活。是時候購買所有東西了。”

To him, the sudden thaw in trade tensions, combined with early signs of Fed dovishness, is the green light for investors to go full risk-on.

對他來說，貿易緊張局勢的突然解凍，再加上美聯儲的早期跡象，是投資者完全冒險的綠燈。