市场刚刚经历了他们最暴力的重置之一

唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）重返权力引发了一​​场全面的贸易战，全球市场陷入了困境，价值超过11万亿美元。

Markets just endured one of their most violent resets in recent times, with over $11 trillion in value being erased from stocks and crypto. The trigger? A full-blown trade war sparked by Donald Trump’s return to power, which blindsided investors and briefly convinced some that the next bear market had begun.

市场近来刚刚经历了他们最暴力的重置之一，从股票和加密货币中删除了超过11万亿美元的价值。扳机？唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）重返权力的一场全面的贸易战争，该战争蒙蔽了投资者，并简短地说服了一些熊市开始。

However, according to Arthur Hayes, the moment to panic has passed; it’s time to “buy everything.”

但是，根据亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）的说法，恐慌的那一刻已经过去。是时候“买东西”了。

Tariffs Shock Global Markets

关税冲击全球市场

On April 2, an event dubbed “Liberation Day” by policy insiders, the Trump administration rolled out a sweeping set of tariffs, sending global markets into a tailspin. The U.S. slapped import duties on Chinese goods, reaching 145%, and China retaliated in kind.

4月2日，政策内部人士称为“解放日”的活动，特朗普政府推出了一系列广泛的关税，将全球市场送入了尾巴。美国对中国商品的进口关税达到了145％，中国以实物报复。

The impact was immediate. The crypto market, which had been quietly recovering in Q1 2025, cratered. Over $1 trillion in value was wiped out as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) dropped sharply and high-beta tokens, including memecoins, collapsed by more than 50%.livestream

影响是直接的。在2025年第1季度悄悄地恢复的加密市场。超过1万亿美元的价值被淘汰为比特币（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）急剧下降和高贝塔代币（包括成年人），折叠了50％以上。

“Investor sentiment flipped on a dime,” Binance Research noted. “The market shifted into full risk-aversion mode.”

Binance Research指出：“投资者的情绪翻了一毛钱。” “市场转变为完全风险的模式。”

Traditional markets fared no better. Equities across the U.S., Europe, and Asia hemorrhaged capital. Export-heavy sectors, emerging markets, and even blue-chip U.S. tech stocks got hammered.

传统市场没有更好的表现。美国，欧洲和亚洲的股票大量资本。出口繁重的部门，新兴市场，甚至是蓝筹科技股票都被锤击了。

The total drawdown across equities alone topped $10 trillion, drawing comparisons to the COVID panic—only this time, the catalyst wasn’t a virus, but government policy.

仅股票的总汇率就超过了100万亿美元，比较了恐慌，只有这次，催化剂不是病毒，而是政府的政策。

One voice stood out amid the doom and gloom. Arthur Hayes, former BitMEX CEO and now a prominent macro thinker, saw it coming and said the panic wouldn’t last.

在厄运和忧郁中，一个声音脱颖而出。前Bitmex首席执行官亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes），现在是著名的宏观思想家，他看到了它的到来，并说恐慌不会持续。

For months, Hayes had been warning that any major disruption like a U.S.-China flare-up would force the Federal Reserve’s hand. In his essays on X, he argued that the Fed would have no choice but to resume money printing and liquidity injections, especially if geopolitical instability threatened markets.

几个月来，海斯一直警告说，像美中弹爆炸这样的任何重大破坏都会迫使美联储的手。他在关于X的文章中辩称，美联储别无选择，只能恢复印刷和流动性，尤其是在地缘政治不稳定威胁市场的情况下。

He also predicted that despite the tough talk, the U.S. and China would ultimately de-escalate, if only to protect markets.

他还预测，尽管进行了艰难的话题，但美国和中国将最终降级，即使只是为了保护市场。

Tariff Truce Sparks Relief Rally

关税休战激发救济集会

That thesis began to be realized on May 12, when Washington and Beijing unexpectedly agreed to a 90-day tariff rollback. U.S. duties dropped from 145% to 30%, and China eased its retaliatory tariffs to 10%.

该论文于5月12日开始实现，当时华盛顿和北京意外同意了90天的关税回滚。美国职责从145％降至30％，中国将其报复性关税减至10％。

The reaction was swift. U.S. futures surged across the board. Bitcoin bounced back above $100,000. Ethereum reclaimed $2,500. The Nasdaq jumped 4%.

反应很快。美国期货全面飙升。比特币弹回了100,000美元以上。以太坊收回了$ 2,500。纳斯达克跃升了4％。

And Hayes lost no time in saying what the optimists wanted to hear: “Chi-Merica lives. It’s time to buy everything.”

海耶斯（Hayes）毫不犹豫地说了乐观主义者想听的话：“ Chi-Merica的生活。是时候购买所有东西了。”

To him, the sudden thaw in trade tensions, combined with early signs of Fed dovishness, is the green light for investors to go full risk-on.

对他来说，贸易紧张局势的突然解冻，再加上美联储的早期迹象，是投资者完全冒险的绿灯。