Mark Carney, Not Pierre Poilievre, Is the Favorite to Win the Canadian Election, Polymarket Charts Show

Pierre Poilievre, the Canada Conservative Party’s frontman, is shredding the stage with his pro-Bitcoin riffs, setting the stage for lighter crypto regulations and a booming digital asset hub. But Polymarket’s charts are screaming a different tune, putting former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney in the lead at 99% odds.

Now, that’s not a small feat, considering the two candidates are rolling toward the Canadian election on April 27, 2025.

With Trump’s wild card in the mix, it’s no easy win. The former president’s threats of tariffs and even annexing Canada to solve trade disputes had odds flip-flopped earlier in the year, making it look like a close race. But Trump’s presence tipped the scales toward Carney’s Liberals.

Canadians, wary of Trump’s trade war, see Carney as the best hope for stability, especially with the ex-president threatening to annex Canada over dairy tariffs.

Someone put over $100,000 on Conservatives winning the Canadian election today ...

They'll win over $500,000 if they're right.

Smart bet?

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) April 28, 2025

However, that narrative shifted slowly, finally converging on Carney’s win.

If Carney crosses the finish line, the crypto market might hit a slower beat. Carney’s no fan of Bitcoin, previously slamming it for concentrating market manipulation risks. He’d likely push for tighter crypto regulations, setting the stage for central bank digital currencies over private coins.

This could hamper crypto adoption in Canada, envisioning stricter exchange rules and less room for innovation, leaving investors in the same crypto landscape.

But Poilievre, a long-time Bitcoin fan, had vowed to turn Canada into a crypto paradise. He’d likely push for lighter regulations, encouraging blockchain innovation and making Canada a hub for digital assets. Think tax breaks for crypto startups and a welcoming vibe for miners.

It’s a crypto haven, fostering growth and investment, all in the span of one election cycle.

Now, let’s talk Polymarket, the betting market rocking this election forecast. They’ve handled massive volumes—$77 million on this race alone—and saw over $3.3 billion wagered on the 2024 US election. Their revenue comes from trading fees, often a small percentage per bet, raking in millions as users pile in.

Platforms like Polymarket shift perspectives by reflecting real-time sentiment, not just polls, providing a raw, crowd-sourced view of who’s got the momentum and how people truly feel. In the age of deep fakes and biased news, bettors will likely be more honest as they're putting their own money where their mouth is.