加密貨幣市場重大調整後下一步是什麼？

在周一的市場大屠殺之後，比特幣的價格短暫跌至 49,000 美元，引發了廣泛的恐慌和一系列的交易活動。

Monday’s market carnage saw Bitcoin’s price briefly drop to $49,000, sparking widespread panic and a flurry of trading activity.

週一的市場大屠殺導致比特幣價格短暫跌至 49,000 美元，引發了廣泛的恐慌和一系列交易活動。

Despite the initial drop, Bitcoin has shown some resilience, rebounding to nearly $57,000. However, the broader sentiment remains cautious, with the fear index firmly in the “fear” territory.

儘管最初有所下跌，但比特幣表現出了一定的韌性，反彈至近 57,000 美元。然而，整體情緒依然謹慎，恐懼指數牢牢處於「恐懼」區域。

Markus Thielen, head of research at 10X Research, points out the absence of fresh capital inflows into the market. He notes that the market has devolved without new money into a zero-sum game among traders, especially with the excessive leverage.

10X Research 研究主管 Markus Thielen 指出，缺乏新的資本流入市場。他指出，在沒有新資金的情況下，市場已經陷入交易者之間的零和遊戲，尤其是在槓桿過高的情況下。

“This recent sell-off has caused significantly more liquidations than those in April and June, substantially reducing the ‘leverage’ pool,” Thielen said.

「最近的拋售導致比四月和六月更多的清算，大大減少了『槓桿』池，」蒂倫說。

He suggested that while the price has rebounded, traders still need to reassess their risk management strategies.

他建議，雖然價格反彈，但交易者仍需要重新評估其風險管理策略。

Moreover, a CryptoQuant report shared with BeInCrypto analyzed the market from a valuation standpoint. It highlighted concerns with Bitcoin’s market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio.

此外，與 BeInCrypto 分享的 CryptoQuant 報告從估值角度分析了市場。它強調了對比特幣市場價值與實現價值（MVRV）比率的擔憂。

“The MVRV ratio has fallen below its 365-day moving average, a condition that in previous cycles has signaled an extension of the price decline or the start of a bear market,” the CryptoQuant report noted.

CryptoQuant 報告指出，“MVRV 比率已跌破 365 天移動平均線，這種情況在先前的周期中就預示著價格下跌的延續或熊市的開始。”

If the market were to enter the bullish trend again, the MVRV would have to cross above its 365-day average once more.

如果市場再次進入看漲趨勢，MVRV 將必須再次突破 365 天均線。

Eugene Ng Ah Sio, another prominent market analyst, commented on the structural weaknesses exposed by the market correction. Ng’s strategy involves tight risk controls, especially in volatile market phases, reflecting a cautious approach to the current instability.

另一位著名市場分析師 Eugene Ng Ah Sio 對市場調整暴露出的結構性弱點發表了評論。吳恩達的策略涉及嚴格的風險控制，尤其是在波動的市場階段，反映出對當前不穩定局勢的謹慎態度。

“Market structure for all majors are either broken or look extremely bleak. I don’t typically want to remain aggressively long when there is this much uncertainty + weakness in the market,” he stated.

「所有專業的市場結構要不是被打破，就是看起來極為黯淡。當市場存在如此多的不確定性和疲軟時，我通常不想繼續激進地做多，」他表示。

Contrasting the prevalent market fear, Raoul Pal remains optimistic, citing historical patterns.

與普遍的市場恐懼形成鮮明對比的是，拉烏爾·帕爾（Raoul Pal）引用歷史法則仍然保持樂觀。

“What comes next is the banana zone. I don’t want you to miss it because you are getting caught in the short-term time horizons of traders on Twitter,” Pal explained.

「接下來是香蕉區。我不希望你錯過它，因為你陷入了 Twitter 上交易者的短期視野中，」帕爾解釋道。

He refers to previous market cycles where significant corrections were followed by strong recoveries, suggesting that the current market could be gearing up for a similar upswing.

他提到了先前的市場週期，其中重大調整之後是強勁復甦，這表明當前市場可能正在為類似的上漲做好準備。

Meanwhile, Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, hinted at a silent but significant accumulation of Bitcoin by long-term holders. He shared that 404,448 Bitcoin, worth around $23 billion based on the current market price, have moved to permanent holder addresses over the past 30 days.

同時，CryptoQuant 執行長 Ki Young Ju 暗示，長期持有者正在默默但大量地累積比特幣。他表示，在過去 30 天內，404,448 個比特幣已轉移至永久持有者地址，以當前市場價格計算，價值約 230 億美元。

Young Ju anticipates that this strategic accumulation could herald substantial institutional announcements, possibly leaving those who opted out due to short-term fears feeling regretful.

Young Ju預計，這種策略累積可能預示著機構的重大公告，可能會讓那些因短期擔憂而選擇退出的人感到遺憾。

“Within a year, some entities—whether they’re TradFi institutions, companies, governments, or others—will announce that they’ve acquired Bitcoin in Q3 2024. And retail investors will regret not buying it because they were worried about the German government selling, Mt. Gox, or whatever macroeconomic shit was going on,” Young Ju said.

「一年之內，一些實體——無論是TradFi 機構、公司、政府還是其他——將宣布他們已在2024 年第三季度購買比特幣。散戶投資者將後悔沒有購買比特幣，因為他們擔心德國政府「拋售、Mt. Gox，或任何正在發生的宏觀經濟問題，」Young Ju 說。