加密货币市场重大调整后下一步是什么？

在周一的市场大屠杀之后，比特币的价格短暂跌至 49,000 美元，引发了广泛的恐慌和一系列的交易活动。

Monday’s market carnage saw Bitcoin’s price briefly drop to $49,000, sparking widespread panic and a flurry of trading activity.

周一的市场大屠杀导致比特币价格短暂跌至 49,000 美元，引发了广泛的恐慌和一系列交易活动。

Despite the initial drop, Bitcoin has shown some resilience, rebounding to nearly $57,000. However, the broader sentiment remains cautious, with the fear index firmly in the “fear” territory.

尽管最初有所下跌，但比特币表现出了一定的韧性，反弹至近 57,000 美元。然而，整体情绪仍然谨慎，恐惧指数牢牢处于“恐惧”区域。

Markus Thielen, head of research at 10X Research, points out the absence of fresh capital inflows into the market. He notes that the market has devolved without new money into a zero-sum game among traders, especially with the excessive leverage.

10X Research 研究主管 Markus Thielen 指出，缺乏新的资本流入市场。他指出，在没有新资金的情况下，市场已经陷入交易者之间的零和游戏，尤其是在杠杆过高的情况下。

“This recent sell-off has caused significantly more liquidations than those in April and June, substantially reducing the ‘leverage’ pool,” Thielen said.

“最近的抛售导致比四月和六月更多的清算，大大减少了‘杠杆’池，”蒂伦说。

He suggested that while the price has rebounded, traders still need to reassess their risk management strategies.

他建议，虽然价格有所反弹，但交易者仍需要重新评估其风险管理策略。

Moreover, a CryptoQuant report shared with BeInCrypto analyzed the market from a valuation standpoint. It highlighted concerns with Bitcoin’s market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio.

此外，与 BeInCrypto 分享的 CryptoQuant 报告从估值角度分析了市场。它强调了对比特币市场价值与实现价值（MVRV）比率的担忧。

“The MVRV ratio has fallen below its 365-day moving average, a condition that in previous cycles has signaled an extension of the price decline or the start of a bear market,” the CryptoQuant report noted.

CryptoQuant 报告指出，“MVRV 比率已跌破 365 天移动平均线，这种情况在之前的周期中就预示着价格下跌的延续或熊市的开始。”

If the market were to enter the bullish trend again, the MVRV would have to cross above its 365-day average once more.

如果市场再次进入看涨趋势，MVRV 将必须再次突破 365 天均线。

Eugene Ng Ah Sio, another prominent market analyst, commented on the structural weaknesses exposed by the market correction. Ng’s strategy involves tight risk controls, especially in volatile market phases, reflecting a cautious approach to the current instability.

另一位著名市场分析师 Eugene Ng Ah Sio 对市场调整暴露出的结构性弱点发表了评论。吴恩达的策略涉及严格的风险控制，尤其是在波动的市场阶段，反映出对当前不稳定局势的谨慎态度。

“Market structure for all majors are either broken or look extremely bleak. I don’t typically want to remain aggressively long when there is this much uncertainty + weakness in the market,” he stated.

“所有专业的市场结构要么被打破，要么看起来极其黯淡。当市场存在如此多的不确定性和疲软时，我通常不想继续激进地做多，”他表示。

Contrasting the prevalent market fear, Raoul Pal remains optimistic, citing historical patterns.

与普遍的市场恐惧形成鲜明对比的是，拉乌尔·帕尔（Raoul Pal）引用历史模式仍然保持乐观。

“What comes next is the banana zone. I don’t want you to miss it because you are getting caught in the short-term time horizons of traders on Twitter,” Pal explained.

“接下来是香蕉区。我不希望你错过它，因为你陷入了 Twitter 上交易者的短期视野中，”帕尔解释道。

He refers to previous market cycles where significant corrections were followed by strong recoveries, suggesting that the current market could be gearing up for a similar upswing.

他提到了之前的市场周期，其中重大调整之后是强劲复苏，这表明当前市场可能正在为类似的上涨做好准备。

Meanwhile, Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, hinted at a silent but significant accumulation of Bitcoin by long-term holders. He shared that 404,448 Bitcoin, worth around $23 billion based on the current market price, have moved to permanent holder addresses over the past 30 days.

与此同时，CryptoQuant 首席执行官 Ki Young Ju 暗示，长期持有者正在默默但大量地积累比特币。他表示，过去 30 天内，404,448 个比特币已转移至永久持有者地址，按当前市场价格计算，价值约 230 亿美元。

Young Ju anticipates that this strategic accumulation could herald substantial institutional announcements, possibly leaving those who opted out due to short-term fears feeling regretful.

Young Ju预计，这种战略积累可能预示着机构的重大公告，可能会让那些因短期担忧而选择退出的人感到遗憾。

“Within a year, some entities—whether they’re TradFi institutions, companies, governments, or others—will announce that they’ve acquired Bitcoin in Q3 2024. And retail investors will regret not buying it because they were worried about the German government selling, Mt. Gox, or whatever macroeconomic shit was going on,” Young Ju said.

“一年之内，一些实体——无论是 TradFi 机构、公司、政府还是其他——将宣布他们已在 2024 年第三季度购买比特币。散户投资者将后悔没有购买比特币，因为他们担心德国政府“抛售、Mt. Gox，或者任何正在发生的宏观经济问题，”Young Ju 说。