幾個關鍵驅動力將影響比特幣的價格軌跡

持續流入的比特幣ETF將繼續提供基本需求

Several key drivers will influence Bitcoin’s price trajectory through the remainder of 2025 and into the next cycle.

幾個關鍵驅動因素將在2025年其餘時間內影響比特幣的價格軌跡，直到下一個週期。

Sustained inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs will continue to provide foundational demand, especially as retirement funds, endowments, and pension managers seek exposure to digital assets through regulated products. Any positive regulatory announcements, especially in jurisdictions like the United States and the European Union, could further catalyze Bitcoin’s upward movement.

持續流入現貨比特幣ETF將繼續提供基本需求，尤其是在退休資金，捐贈基金和養老金經理尋求通過受監管的產品接觸數字資產時。任何積極的監管公告，尤其是在美國和歐盟等司法管轄區，都可以進一步催化比特幣的向上運動。

Conversely, any pessimistic pronouncements or, worse, swift and restrictive policy changes could stall the rally and introduce volatility.

相反，任何悲觀的聲明，或者更糟糕的是，迅速而限制性的政策變化都可能陷入集會並引入波動。

On the technical front, increased adoption of Bitcoin’s Layer 2 solutions, such as the Lightning Network, and its growing role in cross-border transactions, could improve its utility and perception as a digital store of value, ultimately impacting price trends.

在技​​術方面，比特幣第2層解決方案（例如閃電網絡及其在跨境交易中的作用越來越多）增加的採用可能會改善其效用和看法作為價值的數字存儲，最終影響價格趨勢。

Finally, macroeconomic conditions will play a crucial role. Should inflation concerns resurface or fiat currencies face devaluation, Bitcoin could serve as a hedge and attract further capital inflows. However, if interest rates rise sharply or the economy deteriorates unexpectedly, Bitcoin’s price could come under pressure.

最後，宏觀經濟條件將發揮關鍵作用。如果通貨膨脹涉及重新出現或法定貨幣面臨貶值，比特幣可以作為樹籬並吸引進一步的資本流入。但是，如果利率急劇上升或經濟意外惡化，比特幣的價格可能會受到壓力。

Overall, while predictions for year-end 2025 vary widely, conservative estimates place BTC near the US$105,000 range by December 2025.

總體而言，雖然對2025年年底的預測差異很大，但保守的估計將BTC的範圍靠近105,000美元，到2025年12月。

More bullish models suggest a peak between US$130,000 to US$150,000, especially if economic uncertainties or a liquidity-driven bull cycle emerge.

更多看漲的模型表明，在經濟不確定性或流動性驅動的公牛週期出現時，尤其是在130,000美元至150,000美元之間的頂峰。